Our world of power and national security is increasingly probabilistic: like a quantum wavefunction, it encodes multiple plausible futures until policy choices and shocks collapse them into observable outcomes. Quantum technologies have moved from laboratory curiosities to strategic infrastructure, with an approaching 'event horizon' reflected in recent United States strategic assessments -- incl. the U.S. --China Economic and Security Review Commission's (USSC) call for a Quantum First posture by 2030- and in parallel White House initiatives aimed at securing critical inputs and accelerating trusted innovation. Government research further documents that China's quantum program is centrally mobilized under military-civil fusion, and that its consequential advantages may arise not only from computing milestones but also from sensing and cryptanalytic applications, thereby sharpening the need for a values based deterrence by denial governance posture. The Article's central claim is that the U.S. and its allies should pursue security-sufficient openness, operationalized through a least-trade-restrictive, security-sufficient, innovation-preserving (LSI) test that disciplines both state and private action. The LSI test integrates emerging instruments of economic statecraft to create secure closed loop enclaves for high-sensitivity collaborative R&D. The Article's contribution is an implementable coalition playbook, offering empirically anchored criteria, templates, and differentiated guardrails -- incl. red zone domains where denial is the default -- to avoid both over-securitization and under-securitization. Properly applied, LSI reduces the risk of a self-defeating Silicon Curtain while establishing standards-first interoperability as a stabilizing eigenstate of the international order and enabling RQT by design to shape trusted adoption pathways beyond the coalition, incl. in the majority world.
Policy brief no.15 written within the Reconnect China Horizon Europe project deals with the intensifying global race to harness quantum science. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security. Chinese researchers, led by figures like Pan Jianwei, have made significant strides in quantum communication and computing. China is particularly advanced in quantum communication, building secure networks that use quantum key distribution (QKD), which is virtually unhackable. China has also launched quantum satellites, like Mozi and Jinan-1, to bolster its space-ground quantum network. Despite its achievements, China may face challenges in keeping up with competitors. The quantum industry lacks robust private investment and relies heavily on state support, while geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., risk isolating China from essential technologies. The coming decade will be crucial as China continues to navigate these obstacles in its quest for quantum supremacy. Policy recommendations: Given the strategic reach and military potential of quantum technologies, and given the central role of the Party and state in the quantum industry in China, any European partnership with and investment in China should be scrutinized carefully Europe must keep up with quantum application developments and standardization so that it does not entirely rely on technology and norms developed by foreign powers in the future Europe may play a constructive role in preventing the fragmentation of norms between the US and China The policy brief is complemented by the relevant infographic (10.5281/zenodo.22555953).