China's quest for quantum advantage—Strategic and defense innovation at a new frontier

Elsa B. Kania

China has prioritized quantum science and technology as a critical frontier for its national security and development. To date, Chinese research has already reached a leading position within the discipline, enabled by state support and funding, as well as the recruitment and cultivation of talent. The rapid advances on this front can provide a valuable illustration of the dynamics of China’s evolving innovation ecosystem, including the increased prominence of leading technology companies, and even start-ups, as serious contenders. China’s strategy of military–civil fusion, which aims to create a more integrated ecosystem in science and technology, can contribute to enabling progress in dual-use developments. This case study draws upon the shared framework for this special issue, which provides a method by which to consider the factors that enable defense innovation. Looking forward, these advances could prove consequential for the future strategic balance between China and the United States.

Ajey Lele

Marc Julienne

Policy brief no.15 written within the Reconnect China Horizon Europe project deals with the intensifying global race to harness quantum science. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security. Chinese researchers, led by figures like Pan Jianwei, have made significant strides in quantum communication and computing. China is particularly advanced in quantum communication, building secure networks that use quantum key distribution (QKD), which is virtually unhackable. China has also launched quantum satellites, like Mozi and Jinan-1, to bolster its space-ground quantum network. Despite its achievements, China may face challenges in keeping up with competitors. The quantum industry lacks robust private investment and relies heavily on state support, while geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., risk isolating China from essential technologies. The coming decade will be crucial as China continues to navigate these obstacles in its quest for quantum supremacy. Policy recommendations: Given the strategic reach and military potential of quantum technologies, and given the central role of the Party and state in the quantum industry in China, any European partnership with and investment in China should be scrutinized carefully Europe must keep up with quantum application developments and standardization so that it does not entirely rely on technology and norms developed by foreign powers in the future Europe may play a constructive role in preventing the fragmentation of norms between the US and China The policy brief is complemented by the relevant infographic (10.5281/zenodo.22555953).

Elsa B. Kania

Rene G. Berendsen

History has shown that new technologies can change the face of war significantly. Today, experiencing the speed of innovation and the emergence of technologies made possible by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, even the classical Clausewitzian theory of the nature of war can be questioned. The United States is expected to have an early advantage in the area of quantum computing. However, China is also exploring the applications of quantum technology and has already surpassed the United States in the area of quantum communication. Therefore, recognizing the importance of quantum technology and its application, developing its integration, and understanding the strategic context laid in the US National Defense Strategy 2018 (NDS 2018), it is imperative to consider quantum technology in the paradigm of operational art. Quantum technology is an emerging technology that has the potential to reshape the world and provoke a new arms race. Given that we are in the early stages of quantum technology and there exists the potential of this technology providing the United States and her allies an advantage over adversaries, this monograph analyzes quantum technology and examines its potential importance in future warfare.

Moscioni, Brian James