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Reconnect China Policy Brief 15: China's Quest for a Quantum Leap

Marc Julienne

Published Oct 21, 2024• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Policy brief no.15 written within the Reconnect China Horizon Europe project deals with the intensifying global race to harness quantum science. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security. Chinese researchers, led by figures like Pan Jianwei, have made significant strides in quantum communication and computing. China is particularly advanced in quantum communication, building secure networks that use quantum key distribution (QKD), which is virtually unhackable. China has also launched quantum satellites, like Mozi and Jinan-1, to bolster its space-ground quantum network. Despite its achievements, China may face challenges in keeping up with competitors. The quantum industry lacks robust private investment and relies heavily on state support, while geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., risk isolating China from essential technologies. The coming decade will be crucial as China continues to navigate these obstacles in its quest for quantum supremacy. Policy recommendations: Given the strategic reach and military potential of quantum technologies, and given the central role of the Party and state in the quantum industry in China, any European partnership with and investment in China should be scrutinized carefully Europe must keep up with quantum application developments and standardization so that it does not entirely rely on technology and norms developed by foreign powers in the future Europe may play a constructive role in preventing the fragmentation of norms between the US and China The policy brief is complemented by the relevant infographic (10.5281/zenodo.22555953).

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.22555913

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Policy brief no.15 written within the Reconnect China Horizon Europe project deals with the intensifying global race to harness quantum science. Recognizing the strategic potential of quantum technology for economic, military, and scientific advancement, China is focusing on quantum breakthroughs as a way to shift the balance of power, especially in its competition with the United States. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of scientific innovation, particularly in quantum fields, to fuel national development and ensure security. Chinese researchers, led by figures like Pan Jianwei, have made significant strides in quantum communication and computing. China is particularly advanced in quantum communication, building secure networks that use quantum key distribution (QKD), which is virtually unhackable. China has also launched quantum satellites, like Mozi and Jinan-1, to bolster its space-ground quantum network. Despite its achievements, China may face challenges in keeping up with competitors. The quantum industry lacks robust private investment and relies heavily on state support, while geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., risk isolating China from essential technologies. The coming decade will be crucial as China continues to navigate these obstacles in its quest for quantum supremacy. Policy recommendations: Given the strategic reach and military potential of quantum technologies, and given the central role of the Party and state in the quantum industry in China, any European partnership with and investment in China should be scrutinized carefully Europe must keep up with quantum application developments and standardization so that it does not entirely rely on technology and norms developed by foreign powers in the future Europe may play a constructive role in preventing the fragmentation of norms between the US and China The policy brief is complemented by the relevant infographic (10.5281/zenodo.22555953).
This article examines the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China across three interrelated domains of quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communications. Drawing on a qualitative comparative case-study methodology and engaging with theoretical frameworks of techno-nationalism, great-power competition, and military innovation, the article argues that quantum technologies have transcended their origins as instruments of scientific discovery and are now emerging as critical vectors of national power. Quantum capabilities hold the potential to compromise existing encryption architectures, transform battlefield intelligence and surveillance, revolutionise secure command-and-control communications, and render certain conventional deterrent postures strategically vulnerable. The article analyses the strategic investments, institutional ecosystems, and policy architectures through which both states are mobilising quantum capabilities, and it assesses the implications for military advantage, nuclear deterrence, and strategic stability. It concludes that the quantum race introduces new forms of uncertainty and instability into an already fraught great-power relationship, and that the absence of governance mechanisms or confidence-building measures in this domain represents a significant gap in international security architecture. The article contributes to the growing literature on emerging technology and strategic competition by offering a comprehensive comparative assessment of quantum power in the context of U.S.-China rivalry.
The quantum technology industry is taking shape amid intensifying geopolitical rivalries. The challenge is to balance technological advancements and economic security. The United States, China and the European Union are competing through different models. Brussels lacks the strategic principles to guide its quantum policy. Three strategic principles should guide Europe’s quantum industrial policy: focus, synergy and systems. Quantum technologies require prioritisation, complementarity and interoperability.
China has prioritized quantum science and technology as a critical frontier for its national security and development. To date, Chinese research has already reached a leading position within the discipline, enabled by state support and funding, as well as the recruitment and cultivation of talent. The rapid advances on this front can provide a valuable illustration of the dynamics of China’s evolving innovation ecosystem, including the increased prominence of leading technology companies, and even start-ups, as serious contenders. China’s strategy of military–civil fusion, which aims to create a more integrated ecosystem in science and technology, can contribute to enabling progress in dual-use developments. This case study draws upon the shared framework for this special issue, which provides a method by which to consider the factors that enable defense innovation. Looking forward, these advances could prove consequential for the future strategic balance between China and the United States.
Quantum technologies are increasingly recognized as a disruptive frontier that will shape the next generation of industrial strategies. Developments in quantum computing, communication, and sensing promise not only technical breakthroughs but also significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Quantum computing can accelerate drug discovery, materials research, and complex optimization, while quantum communication opens new possibilities for secure data transfer beyond the reach of classical encryption. According to European Commission Reports and National Quantum Initiative Act, leading economies are already investing heavily: the European Union has committed over €1 billion to its Quantum Flagship program, while the United States launched the National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018 to coordinate research and industrial applications. These initiatives underscore the strategic nature of the field. For industrial policy, they also raise important questions: How should governments design roadmaps that foster public–private collaboration? What forms of regulation or incentives are needed to align innovation with competitiveness and security? At the same time, quantum technologies could support sustainability goals, for example through energy-efficient algorithms and advanced climate modeling. Positioning quantum technologies not only as an enabler but as a driver of future industrial policy is essential. Unlike incremental innovations, quantum breakthroughs will actively shape the direction of national strategies, global competitiveness, and sustainability agendas. Recognizing this driver role ensures that policymakers and industries move beyond adaptation, taking a proactive stance in designing resilient and forward-looking industrial ecosystems.
China has achieved major scientific accomplishments since embarking in 2001 on a journey to harness the vast potential of quantum mechanics in information security and military applications. Chinese scientists claimed success in satellite-based entanglement distribution in June 2017. Three months later, in September 2017, the 2,000-kilometer Quantum Communication Line between Shanghai and Beijing opened the world’s first trunk line of secure quantum telecommunications. China’s political leadership has demonstrated its interest and support in this very expensive endeavor, owing to the strategic and military applications of quantum cryptography, quantum computing, and quantum metrology for highly secure communications, stealth submarine operations, and military code breaking. This article explores the rapid development and evolution of research in quantum communications in China, the critical role of political leadership, and the immense opportunities it holds in the military domain.
Quantum technologies are reshaping the future for international relations as they introduce communication, computing, encryption, and sensing capabilities that are unprecedented. This paper explores how the United States and China are tactically racing to dominate quantum technologies, examining how this competition influences the national security strategy of Australia, a key actor within the Indo-Pacific region. Australia is known as a middle power as well as U.S. ally. Its detailed geopolitical context is shaped by new quantum abilities and treaty duties. Grounded in policy analysis and expert literature, this study evaluates the disruptive potential of quantum advancements in global power dynamics through Realism's theoretical lens using a qualitative methodology. The paper concludes quantum technologies represent not merely scientific breakthroughs, but powerful tools of calculated advantage as they carry far-reaching implications for international security, alliances, plus the future balance of power.