Our world of power and national security is increasingly probabilistic: like a quantum wavefunction, it encodes multiple plausible futures until policy choices and shocks collapse them into observable outcomes. Quantum technologies have moved from laboratory curiosities to strategic infrastructure, with an approaching 'event horizon' reflected in recent United States strategic assessments -- incl. the U.S. --China Economic and Security Review Commission's (USSC) call for a Quantum First posture by 2030- and in parallel White House initiatives aimed at securing critical inputs and accelerating trusted innovation. Government research further documents that China's quantum program is centrally mobilized under military-civil fusion, and that its consequential advantages may arise not only from computing milestones but also from sensing and cryptanalytic applications, thereby sharpening the need for a values based deterrence by denial governance posture. The Article's central claim is that the U.S. and its allies should pursue security-sufficient openness, operationalized through a least-trade-restrictive, security-sufficient, innovation-preserving (LSI) test that disciplines both state and private action. The LSI test integrates emerging instruments of economic statecraft to create secure closed loop enclaves for high-sensitivity collaborative R&D. The Article's contribution is an implementable coalition playbook, offering empirically anchored criteria, templates, and differentiated guardrails -- incl. red zone domains where denial is the default -- to avoid both over-securitization and under-securitization. Properly applied, LSI reduces the risk of a self-defeating Silicon Curtain while establishing standards-first interoperability as a stabilizing eigenstate of the international order and enabling RQT by design to shape trusted adoption pathways beyond the coalition, incl. in the majority world.
Our world of power and national security is increasingly probabilistic: like a quantum wavefunction, it encodes multiple plausible futures until policy choices and shocks collapse them into observable outcomes. Quantum technologies have moved from laboratory curiosities to strategic infrastructure, with an approaching 'event horizon' reflected in recent United States strategic assessments -- incl. the U.S. --China Economic and Security Review Commission's (USSC) call for a Quantum First posture by 2030- and in parallel White House initiatives aimed at securing critical inputs and accelerating trusted innovation. Government research further documents that China's quantum program is centrally mobilized under military-civil fusion, and that its consequential advantages may arise not only from computing milestones but also from sensing and cryptanalytic applications, thereby sharpening the need for a values based deterrence by denial governance posture. The Article's central claim is that the U.S. and its allies should pursue security-sufficient openness, operationalized through a least-trade-restrictive, security-sufficient, innovation-preserving (LSI) test that disciplines both state and private action. The LSI test integrates emerging instruments of economic statecraft to create secure closed loop enclaves for high-sensitivity collaborative R&D. The Article's contribution is an implementable coalition playbook, offering empirically anchored criteria, templates, and differentiated guardrails -- incl. red zone domains where denial is the default -- to avoid both over-securitization and under-securitization. Properly applied, LSI reduces the risk of a self-defeating Silicon Curtain while establishing standards-first interoperability as a stabilizing eigenstate of the international order and enabling RQT by design to shape trusted adoption pathways beyond the coalition, incl. in the majority world.
China has prioritized quantum science and technology as a critical frontier for its national security and development. To date, Chinese research has already reached a leading position within the discipline, enabled by state support and funding, as well as the recruitment and cultivation of talent. The rapid advances on this front can provide a valuable illustration of the dynamics of China’s evolving innovation ecosystem, including the increased prominence of leading technology companies, and even start-ups, as serious contenders. China’s strategy of military–civil fusion, which aims to create a more integrated ecosystem in science and technology, can contribute to enabling progress in dual-use developments. This case study draws upon the shared framework for this special issue, which provides a method by which to consider the factors that enable defense innovation. Looking forward, these advances could prove consequential for the future strategic balance between China and the United States.
Quantum technologies are increasingly recognized as a disruptive frontier that will shape the next generation of industrial strategies. Developments in quantum computing, communication, and sensing promise not only technical breakthroughs but also significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Quantum computing can accelerate drug discovery, materials research, and complex optimization, while quantum communication opens new possibilities for secure data transfer beyond the reach of classical encryption. According to European Commission Reports and National Quantum Initiative Act, leading economies are already investing heavily: the European Union has committed over €1 billion to its Quantum Flagship program, while the United States launched the National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018 to coordinate research and industrial applications. These initiatives underscore the strategic nature of the field. For industrial policy, they also raise important questions: How should governments design roadmaps that foster public–private collaboration? What forms of regulation or incentives are needed to align innovation with competitiveness and security? At the same time, quantum technologies could support sustainability goals, for example through energy-efficient algorithms and advanced climate modeling. Positioning quantum technologies not only as an enabler but as a driver of future industrial policy is essential. Unlike incremental innovations, quantum breakthroughs will actively shape the direction of national strategies, global competitiveness, and sustainability agendas. Recognizing this driver role ensures that policymakers and industries move beyond adaptation, taking a proactive stance in designing resilient and forward-looking industrial ecosystems.
Quantum technologies are rapidly moving from scientific research into the arenas of commercialisation and strategic competition, with significant implications for defence and security. While their full military impact may unfold over time, developments in quantum sensing, computing, and communications are already shaping national strategies, industrial ecosystems, and future capability planning. The growing competition among major technological powers highlights the need to act on both the opportunities and risks associated with quantum technologies. Quantum technologies have the potential to enhance military capabilities across domains, from resilient positioning, navigation, and timing to advanced sensing, computing, and secure communications. At the same time, they introduce new vulnerabilities, including risks to current cryptographic systems, supply chains, and technological dependencies. For NATO, the debate is therefore no longer whether quantum technologies matter, but how quickly the Alliance can adopt, operationalise, and secure them before strategic competitors gain asymmetric advantages. This article argues that NATO must pursue a two-track approach: first, fostering quantum innovation, experimentation, and operational adoption across the Alliance; and second, protecting its technological edge, supply chains, critical infrastructure, and security interests against emerging quantum-enabled threats. Achieving a quantum-ready Alliance will require close cooperation among Allies, industry, academia, and NATO entities to translate technological progress into secure and operationally relevant capabilities.
This article examines the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China across three interrelated domains of quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communications. Drawing on a qualitative comparative case-study methodology and engaging with theoretical frameworks of techno-nationalism, great-power competition, and military innovation, the article argues that quantum technologies have transcended their origins as instruments of scientific discovery and are now emerging as critical vectors of national power. Quantum capabilities hold the potential to compromise existing encryption architectures, transform battlefield intelligence and surveillance, revolutionise secure command-and-control communications, and render certain conventional deterrent postures strategically vulnerable. The article analyses the strategic investments, institutional ecosystems, and policy architectures through which both states are mobilising quantum capabilities, and it assesses the implications for military advantage, nuclear deterrence, and strategic stability. It concludes that the quantum race introduces new forms of uncertainty and instability into an already fraught great-power relationship, and that the absence of governance mechanisms or confidence-building measures in this domain represents a significant gap in international security architecture. The article contributes to the growing literature on emerging technology and strategic competition by offering a comprehensive comparative assessment of quantum power in the context of U.S.-China rivalry.
Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computational capability with profound implications for global technological supremacy, economic competitiveness, and national security. This comprehensive survey synthesizes the current state of quantum computing development across major powers and introduces the Quantum Strategic Competitiveness Index (QSCI) as a novel analytical framework for quantifying national quantum capabilities. Through systematic analysis of publicly available data from government reports, research publications, and policy documents, we assess quantum competitiveness across five dimensions: investment intensity, research quality, innovation output, human capital, and implementation readiness. Our analysis reveals that China leads in absolute public investment (approximately $15 billion as reported by multiple sources [11,13]), while the United States maintains superiority in research quality (34% of top-cited papers [12]) and private sector engagement (44% of global funding [12]). The European Union demonstrates strong public-academic collaboration with over €11 billion committed [14, 15]. We provide rigorous mathematical foundations of quantum computing principles, analyze recent experimental achievements including Google's Willow processor achieving below-threshold error correction [4], and examine cryptographic vulnerabilities requiring immediate post-quantum migration. Economic impact analysis with uncertainty quantification projects quantum computing generating $950
Quantum technologies are rapidly emerging as a transformative force with profound implications for critical infrastructures, national security, and global governance. Quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing promise unprecedented advances in data processing, secure communications, and environmental and infrastructure monitoring. At the same time, their disruptive potential introduces new ethical, security, and geopolitical risks, particularly for systems that underpin modern societies such as energy networks, telecommunications, finance, transportation, and defence infrastructures. This paper examines the governance of quantum technologies for critical infrastructures, moving from ethical impact assessment to the formulation of coherent national strategies. The study argues that the unique characteristics of quantum technologies — including their high degree of complexity, dual-use nature, and capacity to undermine existing cryptographic and security frameworks — require a shift from reactive regulation to anticipatory and responsible governance. Traditional regulatory approaches are insufficient to address the speed, uncertainty, and strategic relevance of quantum innovation. Instead, the paper emphasizes the need to integrate ethical impact assessment, risk analysis, and societal considerations at the earliest stages of research, development, and deployment. Ethical governance is presented not as a constraint on innovation, but as a foundational element for ensuring trust, resilience, and long-term sustainability. The analysis situates quantum governance within a broader geopolitical context, highlighting how major global actors are investing in quantum capabilities as strategic assets. This competition increases the urgency for coordinated governance frameworks that balance technological sovereignty, security, and international cooperation. Particular attention is given to the protection of critical infrastructures and the transition towards quantum-safe systems, especially in the field of cybersecurity and secure communications. Finally, the paper outlines the implications for national and European strategies, stressing the importance of multi-level governance involving governments, international organisations, industry, and research institutions. It concludes that only a holistic approach — combining ethical foresight, anticipatory governance, and strategic planning — can ensure that quantum technologies enhance societal resilience and security rather than exacerbate systemic vulnerabilities. In this sense, quantum governance becomes a central component of future national strategies for critical infrastructure protection and technological leadership.