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arXiv:2601.23084 · Advanced Quantum Technologies

Margin-Based Generalisation Bounds for Quantum Kernel Methods under Local Depolarising Noise

Saarisha Govender, Ilya Sinayskiy

quant-phSubmitted Jan 30, 2026• Announced Feb 2, 2026• 0 citations
v1 · Jan 30, 2026v2 · Apr 1, 2026v3 · Jul 9, 2026
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Abstract

Generalisation refers to the ability of a machine learning (ML) model to successfully apply patterns learned from training data to new, unseen data. Quantum devices in the current Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era are inherently affected by noise, which degrades generalisation performance. In this work, we derive upper and lower margin-based generalisation bounds for Quantum Kernel-Assisted Support Vector Machines (QSVMs) under local depolarising noise. These theoretical bounds characterise noise-induced margin decay and are validated via numerical simulations across multiple datasets, as well as experiments on real quantum hardware. We further justify the focus on margin-based measures by empirically establishing margins as a reliable indicator of generalisation performance for QSVMs. Additionally, we motivate the study of local depolarising noise by presenting empirical evidence demonstrating that the commonly used global depolarising noise model is overly optimistic and fails to accurately capture the degradation of generalisation performance observed in the NISQ era.

Journal reference
Adv Quantum Technol, 9, e70459 (2026)
DOI
10.1002/qute.70459
Comments
30 pages, 13 figures

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Generalisation refers to the ability of a machine learning (ML) model to successfully apply patterns learned from training data to new, unseen data. Quantum devices in the current Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era are inherently affected by noise, which degrades generalisation performance. In this work, we derive upper and lower margin-based generalisation bounds for Quantum Kernel-Assisted Support Vector Machines (QSVMs) under local depolarising noise. These theoretical bounds characterise noise-induced margin decay and are validated via numerical simulations across multiple datasets, as well as experiments on real quantum hardware. We further justify the focus on margin-based measures by empirically establishing margins as a reliable indicator of generalisation performance for QSVMs. Additionally, we motivate the study of local depolarising noise by presenting empirical evidence demonstrating that the commonly used global depolarising noise model is overly optimistic and fails to accurately capture the degradation of generalisation performance observed in the NISQ era.
The rapid advancement of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices necessitates a systematic evaluation of quantum machine learning (QML) algorithms to determine their feasibility for near-term applications. This study aims to benchmark the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC)and the Quantum Kernel Support Vector Machine (QSVM) under realistic noise conditions modeled using Qiskit Aer. The primary objective is to investigate the impact of depolarizing and amplitude damping noise on the classification performance of these algorithms. Using the Iris binary classification task, we simulated four noise levels (0, 0.01, 0.05, 0.1) and evaluated accuracy across 1024 measurement shots. Results show that QSVM achieves superior accuracy (70%) under ideal and lownoise conditions, while VQC exhibits higher resilience at moderate noise (50% at 0.05 noise level) due to its adaptive Variational parameters. At higher noise levels (0.1), both models converge to ~35–40% accuracy, indicating significant degradation. These findings provide actionable insights for algorithm selection on NISQ hardware, with VQC favored for moderately noisy devices and QSVM preferable for low-noise or error-mitigated systems. The study concludes by highlighting the need for noise-aware ansatz design and error mitigation techniques to enhance QML performance in NISQ regimes.
Kernel methods are the basis of most classical machine learning algorithms such as Gaussian Process (GP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Computing kernels using noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices has attracted considerable attention due to recent progress in the design of NISQ devices. However noise and errors on current NISQ devices can negatively affect the predicted kernels. In this paper we utilize two quantum kernel machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the labels of a Breast Cancer dataset on two different NISQ devices: quantum kernel Gaussian Process (qkGP) and quantum kernel Support Vector Machine (qkSVM). We estimate the quantum kernels on the 11 qubit IonQ and the 5 qubit IBMQ Belem quantum devices. Our results demonstrate that the predictive performances of the error mitigated quantum kernel machine learning algorithms improve significantly compared to their non-error mitigated counterparts. On both NISQ devices the predictive performances became comparable to those of noiseless quantum simulators and their classical counterparts
Quantum kernel methods have been proposed as a promising approach for leveraging near-term quantum computers for supervised learning, yet rigorous benchmarks against strong classical baselines remain scarce. We present a comprehensive empirical study of quantum kernel support vector machines (QSVMs) across nine binary classification datasets, four quantum feature maps, three classical kernels, and multiple noise models, totalling 970 experiments with strict nested cross-validation. Our analysis spans four phases: (i) statistical significance testing, revealing that none of 29 pairwise quantum-classical comparisons reach significance at α=0.05α= 0.05α=0.05; (ii) learning curve analysis over six training fractions, showing steeper quantum slopes on six of eight datasets that nonetheless fail to close the gap to the best classical baseline; (iii) hardware validation on IBM ibm_fez (Heron r2), demonstrating kernel fidelity r≥0.976r \geq 0.976r≥0.976 across six experiments; and (iv) seed sensitivity analysis confirming reproducibility (mean CV 1.4%). A Kruskal-Wallis factorial analysis reveals that dataset choice dominates performance variance (ε2=0.73\varepsilon^2 = 0.73ε2=0.73), while kernel type accounts for only 9%. Spectral analysis offers a mechanistic explanation: current quantum feature maps produce eigenspectra that are either too flat or too concentrated, missing the intermediate profile of the best classical kernel, the radial basis function (RBF). Quantum kernel training (QKT) via kernel-target alignment yields the single competitive result -- balanced accuracy 0.968 on breast cancer -- but with ~2,000x computational overhead. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for quantum kernel research. The complete benchmark suite is publicly available to facilitate reproduction and extension.
Abstract Quantum kernel approaches have been touted as a possible way to gain representational advantages over classical machine learning techniques however most comparative work only looks at classification accuracy leaving the geometric structure of the kernels unexplored. We carry out a comprehensive kernel-level comparison between classical support vector machines (SVMs) with radial basis function (RBF) kernels and quantum support vector classifiers that use ZZFeatureMap and PauliFeatureMap fidelity kernels, tested on two synthetic and two real-world two-dimensional datasets. After applying centred kernel alignment(CKA), the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), eigenvalue spectrum analysis, spectral entropy, and effective rank. Firstly, shallow quantum kernels form a moderately aligned band with RBF across all datasets and conditions that is quite stable (CKA : 0.41 → 0.57), whereas going deeper in the circuit to two repetitions largely mismatches both alignment and accuracy with no representational gain (e.g. Iris cross-validation accuracy: 0.920 → 0.670, p = 0.0004). Secondly, depolarising noise surprisingly increases the quantum-classical kernel alignment, which means that near-term hardware kernels are structurally closer to RBF than noiseless simulations suggest. Thirdly, the scenarios that lead to maximum apparent quantum-classical divergence, small sample sizes and low noise, are precisely those most used to benchmark quantum kernel advantage. Kernel-level structural analysis is essential for meaningful evaluation of quantum machine learning methods.
Reproducibility archive (code + manuscript) for the paper "Benchmarking Quantum Kernel Support Vector Machines Against Classical Baselines on Tabular Data: A Rigorous Empirical Study with Hardware Validation" (arXiv:2604.18837). The archive contains the full Python benchmark framework, experiment configurations, unit tests, and the compiled manuscript. Quantum kernel methods have been proposed as a promising approach for leveraging near-term quantum computers for supervised learning, yet rigorous benchmarks against strong classical baselines remain scarce. We present a comprehensive empirical study of quantum kernel support vector machines (QSVMs) across nine binary classification datasets, four quantum feature maps, three classical kernels, and multiple noise models, totalling 970 experiments with strict nested cross-validation. Our analysis spans four phases: (i) statistical significance testing; (ii) learning curve analysis; (iii) hardware validation on IBM ibm_fez (Heron r2); and (iv) seed sensitivity analysis. A Kruskal–Wallis factorial analysis reveals that dataset choice dominates performance variance (ε2=0.73\varepsilon^2 = 0.73ε2=0.73), while kernel type accounts for only 9%. Spectral analysis offers a mechanistic explanation: current quantum feature maps produce eigenspectra that are either too flat or too concentrated, missing the intermediate profile of the best classical kernel (RBF). The complete benchmark suite is publicly available to facilitate reproduction and extension.
Quantum kernel methods are a candidate for quantum speed-ups in supervised machine learning. The number of quantum measurements N required for a reasonable kernel estimate is a critical resource, both from complexity considerations and because of the constraints of near-term quantum hardware. We emphasize that for classification tasks, the aim is reliable classification and not precise kernel evaluation, and demonstrate that the former is far more resource efficient. Furthermore, it is shown that the accuracy of classification is not a suitable performance metric in the presence of noise and we motivate a new metric that characterizes the reliability of classification. We then obtain a bound for N which ensures, with high probability, that classification errors over a dataset are bounded by the margin errors of an idealized quantum kernel classifier. Using chance constraint programming and the subgaussian bounds of quantum kernel distributions, we derive several Shot-frugal and Robust (ShofaR) programs starting from the primal formulation of the Support Vector Machine. This significantly reduces the number of quantum measurements needed and is robust to noise by construction. Our strategy is applicable to uncertainty in quantum kernels arising from any source of unbiased noise.