Towards Geostrategic Critical Minerals and Materials Resilience: Secure Supply-Chain and Criticality Analyses for Quantum Technologies in Arctic and Space Environments
Min-Ha Lee, Alan J. Hurd, Jolante Wieke Van Wijk, Mauritz Kop
physics.soc-phphysics.space-phquant-phSubmitted Apr 25, 2026• Announced Apr 28, 2026• 0 citations• Revised Jun 10, 2026 (v2)
This manuscript maps secure-supply and criticality risks for quantum technologies deployed in extreme environments, linking upstream critical minerals and materials (CMMs) to downstream system performance, continuity of security, and mission assurance. It adopts a reproducible "Critical Level I" screening method to identify materials whose supply concentration, essentiality, and limited mitigatability can create bottlenecks for quantum deployment. The analysis is structured around two use cases: (i) niobium as a key input for superconducting quantum computing and related manufacturing and toolchain dependencies; and (ii) space-qualified superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs), alongside adjacent single-photon detector platforms such as SPADs, where radiation, thermal cycling, vibration, and electromagnetic interference can degrade device metrics and, in communications settings, threaten continuity of security. The manuscript further situates these dependencies within U.S.-China strategic competition over critical materials, refining capacity, export controls, and overseas mineral acquisitions, while also connecting them to standards-first governance, post-quantum cryptography migration, and the emerging security logic of quantum networking. It argues that static national critical-minerals lists are insufficient for mission-relevant quantum technology and proposes a dedicated Quantum Criticality and Critical Minerals (QCCM) dashboard as a living decision-support tool for tracking concentration, substitutability, qualification bottlenecks, stockpiling gaps, and geopolitical stress signals across quantum platforms. The paper concludes with implications for substitution, diversification, stockpiling, shielding, qualification-by-design, and standards-aligned governance to support secure, sustained, and mission-relevant quantum deployment.
This manuscript maps secure-supply and criticality risks for quantum technologies deployed in extreme environments, linking upstream critical minerals and materials (CMMs) to downstream system performance, continuity of security, and mission assurance. It adopts a reproducible "Critical Level I" screening method to identify materials whose supply concentration, essentiality, and limited mitigatability can create bottlenecks for quantum deployment. The analysis is structured around two use cases: (i) niobium as a key input for superconducting quantum computing and related manufacturing and toolchain dependencies; and (ii) space-qualified superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs), alongside adjacent single-photon detector platforms such as SPADs, where radiation, thermal cycling, vibration, and electromagnetic interference can degrade device metrics and, in communications settings, threaten continuity of security. The manuscript further situates these dependencies within U.S.-China strategic competition over critical materials, refining capacity, export controls, and overseas mineral acquisitions, while also connecting them to standards-first governance, post-quantum cryptography migration, and the emerging security logic of quantum networking. It argues that static national critical-minerals lists are insufficient for mission-relevant quantum technology and proposes a dedicated Quantum Criticality and Critical Minerals (QCCM) dashboard as a living decision-support tool for tracking concentration, substitutability, qualification bottlenecks, stockpiling gaps, and geopolitical stress signals across quantum platforms. The paper concludes with implications for substitution, diversification, stockpiling, shielding, qualification-by-design, and standards-aligned governance to support secure, sustained, and mission-relevant quantum deployment.
Abstract Quantum technologies are moving from laboratory research to real-world deployment, but progress rests on narrow, fragile, globally dispersed supply chains. We introduce the Quantum Criticality Index (QCI)—a tri-axial assessment of supply risk, substitutability, and strategic significance—augmented with an artificial neural network (ANN)-based trend-detection module and a forward-looking stress-testing component. A case study of molybdenum (Mo), essential for superconducting circuits, single-photon detectors, cryogenic hardware, and other dual-use, security-sensitive systems, demonstrates how the QCI pinpoints chokepoints that could hinder hardware trajectories. Building on these diagnostics, we translate risk awareness into action through a governance framework that links the stages of diagnosis, decision, and delivery. By coupling structured indicators with predictive analytics, the QCI provides policymakers and industry with an evidence-based tool that translates diagnostics directly into an operational policy roadmap for allied procurement, intellectual property governance, targeted licensing, and verifiable, sustainable supply-chain assurance. Crucially, QCI-enabled supply chain resilience can function as a hardware-oriented complement to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) migration, together forming a twin-pillar security framework in which physical supply-chain assurance underpins the quantum ecosystem, while PQC protects data integrity and critical infrastructure against “harvest-now, decrypt-later” campaigns and systemic risks.
Quantum technologies are rapidly emerging as a transformative force with profound implications for critical infrastructures, national security, and global governance. Quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing promise unprecedented advances in data processing, secure communications, and environmental and infrastructure monitoring. At the same time, their disruptive potential introduces new ethical, security, and geopolitical risks, particularly for systems that underpin modern societies such as energy networks, telecommunications, finance, transportation, and defence infrastructures. This paper examines the governance of quantum technologies for critical infrastructures, moving from ethical impact assessment to the formulation of coherent national strategies. The study argues that the unique characteristics of quantum technologies — including their high degree of complexity, dual-use nature, and capacity to undermine existing cryptographic and security frameworks — require a shift from reactive regulation to anticipatory and responsible governance. Traditional regulatory approaches are insufficient to address the speed, uncertainty, and strategic relevance of quantum innovation. Instead, the paper emphasizes the need to integrate ethical impact assessment, risk analysis, and societal considerations at the earliest stages of research, development, and deployment. Ethical governance is presented not as a constraint on innovation, but as a foundational element for ensuring trust, resilience, and long-term sustainability. The analysis situates quantum governance within a broader geopolitical context, highlighting how major global actors are investing in quantum capabilities as strategic assets. This competition increases the urgency for coordinated governance frameworks that balance technological sovereignty, security, and international cooperation. Particular attention is given to the protection of critical infrastructures and the transition towards quantum-safe systems, especially in the field of cybersecurity and secure communications. Finally, the paper outlines the implications for national and European strategies, stressing the importance of multi-level governance involving governments, international organisations, industry, and research institutions. It concludes that only a holistic approach — combining ethical foresight, anticipatory governance, and strategic planning — can ensure that quantum technologies enhance societal resilience and security rather than exacerbate systemic vulnerabilities. In this sense, quantum governance becomes a central component of future national strategies for critical infrastructure protection and technological leadership.
Abstract: This study investigates quantum-safe modernization strategies for critical infrastructure by proposing a rigorous post-quantum (PQ) migration and verification framework that treats cryptographic transition as a safety-critical, multi-system engineering program rather than a routine software upgrade. The core argument is that infrastructure operators face two coupled risks: (i) cryptanalytic obsolescence of classical public-key systems under cryptographically relevant quantum computing and (ii) operational fragility introduced by large-scale cryptographic refactoring across heterogeneous assets such as industrial control systems, substation automation, telecommunications backhaul, and safety instrumentation. To address both, the framework integrates inventory-driven migration planning, hybrid-mode interoperability controls, and verification evidence that is continuously auditable across the asset lifecycle. The manuscript operationalizes verification as a chain of assurance spanning algorithm selection, protocol composition, implementation conformance, and deployment governance. Standardized PQ primitives (e.g., ML‑KEM for key establishment and ML‑DSA/SLH‑DSA for signa-tures) are used as reference baselines, with explicit attention to size and performance implications that alter network and device constraints. Real-data collection is defined as standards-backed parameter extraction, vendor/firmware artifact inspection, and protocol telemetry capture in representative environments. Results are reported as decision-facing tables and figures that quantify payload expansion, transition milestones, and published performance overheads, alongside interpretation of their operational significance for safety and resilience. Keywords: post-quantum cryptography; ML-KEM; ML-DSA; SLH-DSA; CNSA 2.0; critical infrastructure; migration governance; protocol verification; conformance testing; cryptographic agility
Quantum computing creates a governance problem before it creates a cryptanalytic event. Information collected today may remain sensitive after a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available, while long-lived operational technology and spacecraft may be unable to adopt new cryptography within conventional replacement cycles.This paper examines how operators of long-lived cyber-physical systems should prioritize post-quantum migration under uncertainty. It distinguishes the present confidentiality risk of harvest-now, decrypt-later collection from the prospective integrity and authentication risks that could follow scalable attacks against public-key cryptography.Building on Mosca's migration inequality, the paper introduces the Quantum Migration Priority Score, a transparent decision framework combining timing pressure, consequence, adversary exposure, and cryptographic agility. Illustrative applications to municipal water systems and proliferated low-Earth-orbit architectures demonstrate how migration priority depends on mission consequences, protocol boundaries, key management, supply-chain dependencies, and compensating controls.The paper concludes with a staged governance strategy centered on cryptographic inventories, crypto-agile procurement, testable migration pathways, accountable risk ownership, and explicit management of residual risk.
Abstract The rapid advancement of quantum technologies is reshaping the landscape of cybersecurity, communications, and critical infrastructure protection, including maritime logistics infrastructures, smart ports, vessel traffic management systems, and autonomous maritime platforms, while simultaneously generating both substantial opportunities and emerging security challenges. Emerging paradigms such as Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), quantum networks, and post-quantum cryptography challenge the adequacy of classical security mechanisms. This study aims to examine the dual-use nature of quantum technologies and evaluate their implications for secure communication and navigation systems in maritime logistics, smart port ecosystems, and defence-oriented environments. The research adopts a conceptual and analytical approach, examining current developments in quantum technologies along with their cybersecurity implications. It evaluates the limitations of existing cryptographic systems in the context of quantum computing advancements and explores hybrid security models that integrate post-quantum cryptography with quantum communication techniques. The analysis also considers defence-oriented requirements, including resilience, secure communications, and the protection of critical infrastructure within NATO-aligned environments. The findings highlight that classical cryptographic approaches are increasingly vulnerable to quantum-enabled attacks, necessitating a transition towards quantum-resilient architectures. The study identifies the strategic advantages of quantum technologies, such as enhanced security through QKD, while also highlighting associated risks, including implementation complexity, operational constraints, and policy challenges. The dual-use character of these technologies is shown to have significant implications in both the civilian and military sectors. Finally, the paper proposes a unified conceptual framework that bridges current cybersecurity practices with emerging quantum-enabled paradigms. The framework supports the development of adaptive, sustainable, and future-proof security architectures capable of addressing evolving threat landscapes. The results underscore the importance of coordinated technological, operational, and policy efforts to ensure secure adoption of quantum technologies in critical domains. Special attention is paid to the resilience of maritime communications and navigation infrastructures against quantum-enabled cyber threats, including GNSS spoofing, communication intercept, and supply-chain disruption.