Towards Geostrategic Critical Minerals and Materials Resilience: Secure Supply-Chain and Criticality Analyses for Quantum Technologies in Arctic and Space Environments
Min-Ha Lee, Alan J. Hurd, Jolante W. van Wijk, Mauritz Kop
This manuscript maps secure-supply and criticality risks for quantum technologies deployed in extreme environments, linking upstream critical minerals and materials (CMMs) to downstream system performance, continuity of security, and mission assurance. It adopts a reproducible "Critical Level I" screening method to identify materials whose supply concentration, essentiality, and limited mitigatability can create bottlenecks for quantum deployment. The analysis is structured around two use cases: (i) niobium as a key input for superconducting quantum computing and related manufacturing and toolchain dependencies; and (ii) space-qualified superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs), alongside adjacent single-photon detector platforms such as SPADs, where radiation, thermal cycling, vibration, and electromagnetic interference can degrade device metrics and, in communications settings, threaten continuity of security. The manuscript further situates these dependencies within U.S.-China strategic competition over critical materials, refining capacity, export controls, and overseas mineral acquisitions, while also connecting them to standards-first governance, post-quantum cryptography migration, and the emerging security logic of quantum networking. It argues that static national critical-minerals lists are insufficient for mission-relevant quantum technology and proposes a dedicated Quantum Criticality and Critical Minerals (QCCM) dashboard as a living decision-support tool for tracking concentration, substitutability, qualification bottlenecks, stockpiling gaps, and geopolitical stress signals across quantum platforms. The paper concludes with implications for substitution, diversification, stockpiling, shielding, qualification-by-design, and standards-aligned governance to support secure, sustained, and mission-relevant quantum deployment.
Abstract Quantum technologies are moving from laboratory research to real-world deployment, but progress rests on narrow, fragile, globally dispersed supply chains. We introduce the Quantum Criticality Index (QCI)—a tri-axial assessment of supply risk, substitutability, and strategic significance—augmented with an artificial neural network (ANN)-based trend-detection module and a forward-looking stress-testing component. A case study of molybdenum (Mo), essential for superconducting circuits, single-photon detectors, cryogenic hardware, and other dual-use, security-sensitive systems, demonstrates how the QCI pinpoints chokepoints that could hinder hardware trajectories. Building on these diagnostics, we translate risk awareness into action through a governance framework that links the stages of diagnosis, decision, and delivery. By coupling structured indicators with predictive analytics, the QCI provides policymakers and industry with an evidence-based tool that translates diagnostics directly into an operational policy roadmap for allied procurement, intellectual property governance, targeted licensing, and verifiable, sustainable supply-chain assurance. Crucially, QCI-enabled supply chain resilience can function as a hardware-oriented complement to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) migration, together forming a twin-pillar security framework in which physical supply-chain assurance underpins the quantum ecosystem, while PQC protects data integrity and critical infrastructure against “harvest-now, decrypt-later” campaigns and systemic risks.
Abstract The rapid advancement of quantum technologies is reshaping the landscape of cybersecurity, communications, and critical infrastructure protection, including maritime logistics infrastructures, smart ports, vessel traffic management systems, and autonomous maritime platforms, while simultaneously generating both substantial opportunities and emerging security challenges. Emerging paradigms such as Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), quantum networks, and post-quantum cryptography challenge the adequacy of classical security mechanisms. This study aims to examine the dual-use nature of quantum technologies and evaluate their implications for secure communication and navigation systems in maritime logistics, smart port ecosystems, and defence-oriented environments. The research adopts a conceptual and analytical approach, examining current developments in quantum technologies along with their cybersecurity implications. It evaluates the limitations of existing cryptographic systems in the context of quantum computing advancements and explores hybrid security models that integrate post-quantum cryptography with quantum communication techniques. The analysis also considers defence-oriented requirements, including resilience, secure communications, and the protection of critical infrastructure within NATO-aligned environments. The findings highlight that classical cryptographic approaches are increasingly vulnerable to quantum-enabled attacks, necessitating a transition towards quantum-resilient architectures. The study identifies the strategic advantages of quantum technologies, such as enhanced security through QKD, while also highlighting associated risks, including implementation complexity, operational constraints, and policy challenges. The dual-use character of these technologies is shown to have significant implications in both the civilian and military sectors. Finally, the paper proposes a unified conceptual framework that bridges current cybersecurity practices with emerging quantum-enabled paradigms. The framework supports the development of adaptive, sustainable, and future-proof security architectures capable of addressing evolving threat landscapes. The results underscore the importance of coordinated technological, operational, and policy efforts to ensure secure adoption of quantum technologies in critical domains. Special attention is paid to the resilience of maritime communications and navigation infrastructures against quantum-enabled cyber threats, including GNSS spoofing, communication intercept, and supply-chain disruption.