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Quantum Risk and the Governance Gap: A Threat-Informed Prioritization Framework for Critical Infrastructure and Space Systems

Khadija Taki

Published Sep 21, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Quantum computing creates a governance problem before it creates a cryptanalytic event. Information collected today may remain sensitive after a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available, while long-lived operational technology and spacecraft may be unable to adopt new cryptography within conventional replacement cycles.This paper examines how operators of long-lived cyber-physical systems should prioritize post-quantum migration under uncertainty. It distinguishes the present confidentiality risk of harvest-now, decrypt-later collection from the prospective integrity and authentication risks that could follow scalable attacks against public-key cryptography.Building on Mosca's migration inequality, the paper introduces the Quantum Migration Priority Score, a transparent decision framework combining timing pressure, consequence, adversary exposure, and cryptographic agility. Illustrative applications to municipal water systems and proliferated low-Earth-orbit architectures demonstrate how migration priority depends on mission consequences, protocol boundaries, key management, supply-chain dependencies, and compensating controls.The paper concludes with a staged governance strategy centered on cryptographic inventories, crypto-agile procurement, testable migration pathways, accountable risk ownership, and explicit management of residual risk.

DOI
10.1184/r1/33941119

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Quantum computing creates a governance problem before it creates a cryptanalytic event. Information collected today may remain sensitive after a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available, while long-lived operational technology and spacecraft may be unable to adopt new cryptography within conventional replacement cycles.This paper examines how operators of long-lived cyber-physical systems should prioritize post-quantum migration under uncertainty. It distinguishes the present confidentiality risk of harvest-now, decrypt-later collection from the prospective integrity and authentication risks that could follow scalable attacks against public-key cryptography.Building on Mosca's migration inequality, the paper introduces the Quantum Migration Priority Score, a transparent decision framework combining timing pressure, consequence, adversary exposure, and cryptographic agility. Illustrative applications to municipal water systems and proliferated low-Earth-orbit architectures demonstrate how migration priority depends on mission consequences, protocol boundaries, key management, supply-chain dependencies, and compensating controls.The paper concludes with a staged governance strategy centered on cryptographic inventories, crypto-agile procurement, testable migration pathways, accountable risk ownership, and explicit management of residual risk.
The emergence of cryptographically relevant quantum computing presents a strategic governance challenge for national security because contemporary digital infrastructures depend extensively on public-key cryptographic mechanisms whose long-term security may be threatened by sufficiently capable quantum computers. This research examines post-quantum cryptographic governance as a policy, risk-management, interoperability, and implementation problem rather than solely as a cryptographic algorithm-selection exercise. The study adopts a conceptual research-and-review methodology based exclusively on the supplied literature, using insights from security and privacy, interoperability, digital transformation, standards-based architectures, and emerging technology governance to construct an integrated post-quantum governance framework. Particular attention is given to cryptographic inventory, risk prioritization, migration governance, interoperability, institutional accountability, lifecycle management, and national-security continuity. The analysis indicates that post-quantum readiness requires coordinated governance across technical and organizational layers, with migration decisions guided by asset criticality, data longevity, dependency relationships, and operational constraints. The study further argues that interoperability principles are central to post-quantum migration because cryptographic transitions must coexist with heterogeneous legacy systems and distributed information environments. The proposed framework therefore combines risk assessment, policy development, technical migration, validation, monitoring, and institutional oversight. The research contributes a governance-oriented perspective in which cryptographic agility and standards-based interoperability become strategic national-security capabilities rather than isolated technical controls.
The anticipated development of cryptographically relevant quantum computing presents a strategic challenge to governments because contemporary public-sector information systems depend extensively on cryptographic mechanisms for confidentiality, authentication, integrity, and secure communication. The principal difficulty is not limited to replacing existing cryptographic algorithms; rather, it concerns the coordinated transformation of national information infrastructures, institutional policies, data-protection practices, procurement procedures, and long-term security architectures. This research and review article develops a policy-oriented framework for quantum-safe cybersecurity in government environments. The study adopts a conceptual methodology that synthesizes the supplied literature on predictive modeling, statistical decision-making, machine learning, and quantum-resistant national-security policy. Although several supplied studies originate in pharmaceutical stability prediction rather than cybersecurity, their methodological emphasis on prediction, modeling, optimization, and risk-oriented decision processes provides transferable analytical foundations for constructing migration and prioritization mechanisms. The proposed framework integrates cryptographic inventory, risk classification, data sensitivity assessment, migration prioritization, algorithm-agility requirements, governance controls, validation mechanisms, and continuous monitoring. The analysis indicates that quantum-safe transformation should be treated as a national digital-resilience program rather than as an isolated cryptographic upgrade. The paper further identifies implementation challenges involving legacy systems, interoperability, institutional coordination, resource allocation, and uncertainty concerning future quantum capabilities. The resulting framework provides a structured basis for government agencies to prioritize critical assets, reduce exposure to future cryptographic compromise, and establish adaptive cybersecurity governance.
Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) readiness is increasingly constrained not by algorithm availability, but by cryptographic visibility, dependency complexity, and fragmented governance. This paper presents an anonymised case study of a large European critical service provider that initiated PQC readiness through a discovery first strategy, utilizing tool supported cryptographic inventorying to establish an evidence based baseline prior to migration planning. The discovery phase revealed systemic challenges, including distributed cryptographic ownership, uneven evidence quality across legacy and modern environments, and high dependency on third party cryptographic roadmaps. To operationalise these findings, the organisation introduced a structured exposure register that enabled prioritisation based on asset criticality, confidentiality longevity, and migration feasibility. We argue that PQC discovery should be understood as a governance capability that stabilises organisational knowledge and converts cryptographic uncertainty into measurable accountability, supporting risk based decision making and ecosystem coordination. The results contribute actionable lessons for institutions pursuing crypto-agility and resilience under post quantum harvest now, decrypt later threat models.
Abstract: This study develops a scope of analytical framework for integrating quantum cryptography, quantum communications, post-quantum cryptography and nano-enabled hardware security into global cybersecurity architectures for DefenceTech, FinTech and SpaceTech. The research problem is framed by the convergence of three pressures: the long-lived confidentiality exposure created by harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks, the rapid standardization of post-quantum algorithms, and the need for hardware-rooted trust in physically exposed devices, satellites, edge nodes and payment infrastructures. The paper synthesizes quantum key distribution, quantum-network standardization, crypto-agile migration, physical unclonable functions and sectoral governance into a single evaluation model. It uses a public-source calibrated realistic dataset of 18 high-value scenarios across defence, finance and space systems. The dataset is not represented as confidential operational telemetry; rather, it is explicitly constructed from publicly available threat, standards and engineering indicators to support transparent modelling. The methodology combines literature review, structured scenario analysis, weighted risk scoring, residual-risk modelling, expected annual loss estimation and feasibility-sensitive control selection. Mathematical equations are used to express QKD channel attenuation, secret-key-rate intuition, cryptographic migration risk, expected loss and multi-criteria optimization. Results indicate that hybrid PQC adoption produces the broadest near-term risk reduction, QKD offers the strongest value where long-lived secrets and controlled optical paths exist, and nano-enabled roots of trust are especially relevant to contested devices and supply chains. The study proposes a staged global framework in which crypto-agility, hybrid PQC, QKD network governance and nano-PUF attestation are treated as complementary layers rather than competing security paradigms. The conclusion identifies future work in real operational benchmarking, satellite-QKD testbeds, standards-aligned implementation assurance and machine-verifiable security reasoning. Keywords: Quantum cryptography; quantum key distribution; post-quantum cryptography; quantum communications; nano-enabled cybersecurity; physical unclonable functions; DefenceTech; FinTech; SpaceTech; crypto-agility; QKD networks; ML-KEM; ML-DSA; hardware root of trust; cyber resilience
Quantum computing is no longer a distant concern for cybersecurity planning. Its progress has raised serious questions about the long-term reliability of widely used public-key cryptographic systems, especially RSA, elliptic curve cryptography, and related key exchange mechanisms that currently protect digital communication, cloud services, financial transactions, government systems, and enterprise information assets. The main concern is that powerful quantum algorithms could weaken the mathematical assumptions on which these systems depend, creating future risks for encrypted data, digital signatures, identity systems, and secure network protocols (Shor, 1994; Mosca, 2018). Post-quantum cryptography has therefore become a major cybersecurity readiness priority, not only as a technical replacement for vulnerable algorithms, but as a broader organizational migration challenge. Effective preparation requires cryptographic asset inventory, risk classification, crypto-agility, vendor coordination, interoperability testing, and phased deployment across complex information systems (Kumar, 2022; Campbell, 2025). This article examines the cybersecurity implications of quantum computing and reviews the major post-quantum cryptographic algorithm families, current standardization efforts, enterprise migration barriers, and strategic readiness measures needed for the quantum computing era. It also discusses the importance of aligning post-quantum migration with existing cybersecurity governance, information systems management, and long-term digital resilience planning. By emphasizing early preparation, structured migration, and continuous cryptographic governance, the article argues that organizations can reduce future quantum-related exposure and strengthen the security of critical digital infrastructure before large-scale quantum attacks become practical (NIST, 2024; NCCoE, 2025).
The anticipated emergence of cryptographically relevant quantum computing presents a strategic challenge for national security systems because many existing public-key cryptographic mechanisms depend on mathematical problems that may become vulnerable to sufficiently capable quantum computation. The central difficulty is therefore not limited to selecting a new cryptographic algorithm; it concerns the coordinated migration of complex national infrastructures, institutional processes, data repositories, software platforms, and interconnected information systems. This research and review article develops a policy-oriented roadmap for post-quantum cryptographic migration by synthesizing the supplied literature on quantum-resistant national security planning with evidence concerning technological adoption barriers, data quality, artificial intelligence governance, explainability, bias, implementation complexity, and safety. The analysis conceptualizes migration as a socio-technical transformation rather than a purely cryptographic replacement exercise. A phased framework is proposed consisting of discovery and inventory, risk classification, algorithm and architecture preparation, controlled transition, validation, institutionalization, and continuous assurance. The findings indicate that successful migration requires visibility into cryptographic dependencies, prioritization of mission-critical information, interoperability planning, governance mechanisms, skilled personnel, and continuous validation. The article further argues that lessons from healthcare and AI implementation literature are transferable at the level of governance and technology adoption, although they cannot substitute for cryptographic or quantum-specific technical evidence. The resulting roadmap positions post-quantum migration as a long-term national resilience program requiring executive governance, technical modernization, lifecycle management, and measurable implementation controls.