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Volume IV: Quantum-AI Convergence -Strategic Trajectories in China, Germany, and the United States

Syed Muntasir Mamun

Published Jan 1, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

K SC The convergence of quantum computing and artificial intelligence represents one of the most consequential technological developments of the twenty-first century. This fourth volume examines the distinct yet interconnected trajectories of quantum-AI integration in three leading powers: the United States, China, and Germany. Through comparative analysis of national strategies, research ecosystems, industrial policy, and geopolitical positioning, the paper identifies three distinct models of convergence: the market-driven, defence-oriented model of the United States; the state-directed, civil-military fusion model of China; and the collaborative, standards-focused, and ethically oriented model of Germany within the European Union framework. These models are not merely technical choices but reflect deeper differences in political economy, epistemic cultures, and visions of global order. The analysis concludes with reflections on the implications of this tri-polar dynamic for smaller and middle powers, including the Global South, and outlines principles for more inclusive and stable quantum-AI governance. Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133209089/download_file?s=portfolio

DOI
10.5281/zenodo.22995564

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The second quantum revolution represents a seminal rupture in global governance, international relations, and socio-economic organization. As quantum computing, communication, and sensing technologies transition from laboratory prototypes to strategic national assets, traditional classical and Newtonian regulatory frameworks are proving fundamentally ill-equipped to address their non-local, probabilistic, and dual-use nature. This report synthesizes the epistemological shift from substance-based to relational, quantum-coherent ontologies, proposing a new framework for "quantum-coherent governance" that embraces relational complexity and adaptive uncertainty. By analyzing the divergent evolutionary trajectories of the United States, China, Germany/EU, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, the analysis highlights the emergence of trilateral security alignments and the critical risks posed by a potential "quantum splinternet." The report concludes that without inclusive, multi-layered institutional architectures, the transition to fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum deployment threatens to entrench global epistemic injustice and asymmetric geopolitical vulnerabilities. KSCCN Mamun, SM (2026) ………………………………………….1 A Comprehensive Theory of Quantum Governance: Ontological Shifts, Multipolar Evolutionary Trajectories, and Future Scenarios in the Second Quantum Revolution (Vol-V) Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133194537/download_file?s=portfolio

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The convergence between artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing has global economic and security implications, with applications ranging from advancing pharmaceuticals to breaking traditional encryption. In its national and local state plans, China's policymakers clearly seek global leadership in both of these domains, and encourage synergies between them. Traditional research institutions, namely universities and laboratories, are leading theoretical work and basic research and development for quantum computers to power AI applications, quantum machine learning (ML), and other foundational work. Additionally, China's premier cloud service providers are advancing the two technologies with quantum simulators and online platforms for ML and algorithm development. These companies are driving the commercialization of quantum technologies for industries like pharmaceuticals, materials science, and chemistry. China's investments and rapid advancements warrant analytic attention to avoid technological surprise and inform U.S. policymakers and leaders in these fields. To that end, this chapter identifies key entities pursuing research on the nexus between the two technologies, assesses technology paths and obstacles, and provides indicators for future analyses.

Routledge eBooks•Jun 22, 2022•4 citations
K SC The convergence of quantum computing and artificial intelligence represents one of the most consequential technological developments of the twenty-first century. This fourth volume examines the distinct yet interconnected trajectories of quantum-AI integration in three leading powers: the United States, China, and Germany. Through comparative analysis of national strategies, research ecosystems, industrial policy, and geopolitical positioning, the paper identifies three distinct models of convergence: the market-driven, defence-oriented model of the United States; the state-directed, civil-military fusion model of China; and the collaborative, standards-focused, and ethically oriented model of Germany within the European Union framework. These models are not merely technical choices but reflect deeper differences in political economy, epistemic cultures, and visions of global order. The analysis concludes with reflections on the implications of this tri-polar dynamic for smaller and middle powers, including the Global South, and outlines principles for more inclusive and stable quantum-AI governance. Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133209089/download_file?s=portfolio
K SC The second quantum revolution is not only a scientific and technological transformation but also a profound governance challenge. As quantum technologies move from laboratory demonstrations to strategic assets, states and international institutions face urgent questions about security, sovereignty, standards, supply chains, and ethical deployment. This third volume in the series examines the emerging field of quantum governance through the lenses of international relations, science and technology studies, and digital sovereignty. It analyses the competitive dynamics between major powers, the risks of quantum-enabled disruption to existing security architectures, and the opportunities for more equitable global regimes. Particular attention is given to the position of the Global South and to the institutional innovations required to prevent a quantum divide that mirrors or deepens existing inequalities. The paper argues for a multi-layered governance architecture that combines arms-control-like mechanisms for quantum capabilities with proactive investment in inclusive quantum infrastructure and norms. Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133209098/download_file?s=portfolio
The second quantum revolution represents a seminal rupture in global governance, international relations, and socio-economic organization. As quantum computing, communication, and sensing technologies transition from laboratory prototypes to strategic national assets, traditional classical and Newtonian regulatory frameworks are proving fundamentally ill-equipped to address their non-local, probabilistic, and dual-use nature. This report synthesizes the epistemological shift from substance-based to relational, quantum-coherent ontologies, proposing a new framework for "quantum-coherent governance" that embraces relational complexity and adaptive uncertainty. By analyzing the divergent evolutionary trajectories of the United States, China, Germany/EU, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, the analysis highlights the emergence of trilateral security alignments and the critical risks posed by a potential "quantum splinternet." The report concludes that without inclusive, multi-layered institutional architectures, the transition to fault-tolerant, utility-scale quantum deployment threatens to entrench global epistemic injustice and asymmetric geopolitical vulnerabilities. KSCCN Mamun, SM (2026) ………………………………………….1 A Comprehensive Theory of Quantum Governance: Ontological Shifts, Multipolar Evolutionary Trajectories, and Future Scenarios in the Second Quantum Revolution (Vol-V) Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133194537/download_file?s=portfolio
K SC This ninth volume in the series offers an information-geometric interpretation of the intensifying global competition in quantum computing. Building upon the technical foundations (Volumes I and V), ontological shifts (Volume II), governance frameworks (Volumes III, V, and VIII), multipolar trajectories (Volume V), Base-of-the-Pyramid survival imperatives (Volume VI), private equity dynamics (Volume VII), and the decisive call for a Quantum Sovereign Capability Coalition (Volume VIII), the analysis models the quantum information landscape as a high-dimensional Riemannian manifold. Different national strategies are interpreted as distinct geodesics and curvature profiles on this manifold. The paper argues that the United States, China, and other powers are not merely competing in hardware or algorithms but are actively shaping the very geometry of the quantum information space through their choices in error correction, hardware modalities, data ontologies, and governance architectures. For middle powers and the Global South, strategic survival requires the deliberate construction of alternative geodesics and the cultivation of regions of lower curvature where asymmetric inclusion and epistemic sovereignty can be preserved. Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/133209078/download_file?s=portfolio
Scholarship and enterprise practice have historically treated quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) as distinct domains of cybersecurity risk, each with its own timeline, mechanisms, and mitigation literature. This article argues that the separation is no longer analytically or operationally tenable. As of 2026, the two technologies have entered a phase of mutual acceleration in which AI compresses the timeline toward a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) while serving as the principal mechanism through which organizations can detect, inventory, and defend against quantum-era threats. The article develops this thesis across five analytical movements: the accelerated offensive timeline, in which machine-learning techniques contribute to advances in error correction and algorithm optimization that have driven estimated qubit requirements for breaking RSA-2048 from roughly twenty million toward one million, a reduction attributable to converging algorithmic, hardware, and AI-assisted advances rather than to any single cause; the harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) threat, which converts a prospective future risk into a present data-exposure problem made more urgent by the state-directed investment postures of well-resourced adversaries; the bidirectional defensive opportunity, in which quantum machine learning (QML), a research-stage methodology whose results are exploratory and conditional on task, dataset, and evaluation environment, and AI-driven cryptographic discovery offer a realistic path to enterprise-scale post-quantum migration; the 2026 regulatory inflection, in which finalized NIST standards and binding compliance deadlines have transformed migration from a research question into an execution problem; and the global investment and geopolitical competition dimension, in which divergent national quantum programs, military-civil fusion architectures, indigenous cryptographic standards, and supply chain concentration risks expand the scope of the migration challenge beyond the compliance-deadline framing that domestic regulatory guidance alone provides. Drawing on recent empirical results in QML-based intrusion detection, documented advances in AI-assisted quantum error correction, the current standards landscape, and comparative analysis of U.S., Chinese, and European quantum investment postures, the article concludes with a five-part strategic framework for security leaders and identifies directions for further research. The central claim is that the defining cybersecurity challenge of the coming decade resides in the interaction of quantum computing and AI, and in the geopolitical competition shaping both, rather than in either technology considered in isolation.
This report provides a comprehensive mapping of the global quantum technologies ecosystem, leveraging data on innovation, firms, investments, skills, trade flows, and policies to inform policymaking in a rapidly evolving field. Collaborating between the European Patent Office (EPO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it analyzes trends in quantum computing, communication, and sensing, highlighting strong growth in patenting activity (particularly in quantum computing), the role of startups and established firms, investment patterns favoring U.S. entities, skills demand focused on research roles, increasing trade dependencies on key suppliers like China, and government strategies in over 30 countries emphasizing R&D support. Key insights underscore Europe's solid innovation base but lower investment attraction compared to the U.S., systemic vulnerabilities in supply chains, and the need for policies to shift toward commercialization and international collaboration. As quantum technologies approach maturity, the report advocates for coordinated efforts to harness their transformative potential in areas like cybersecurity, healthcare, and environmental monitoring while mitigating risks and ensuring equitable development. Mamun, SM (2025)…………………………………………………..1 Quantum Computing 2025: State of Play across Geopolitical, Security, and Economic Paradigms Also available on Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/attachments/125804167/download_file?s=portfolio
The convergence between artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing has global economic and security implications, with applications ranging from advancing pharmaceuticals to breaking traditional encryption. In its national and local state plans, China's policymakers clearly seek global leadership in both of these domains, and encourage synergies between them. Traditional research institutions, namely universities and laboratories, are leading theoretical work and basic research and development for quantum computers to power AI applications, quantum machine learning (ML), and other foundational work. Additionally, China's premier cloud service providers are advancing the two technologies with quantum simulators and online platforms for ML and algorithm development. These companies are driving the commercialization of quantum technologies for industries like pharmaceuticals, materials science, and chemistry. China's investments and rapid advancements warrant analytic attention to avoid technological surprise and inform U.S. policymakers and leaders in these fields. To that end, this chapter identifies key entities pursuing research on the nexus between the two technologies, assesses technology paths and obstacles, and provides indicators for future analyses.