A Comparative Study of Coherent and Incoherent Error Models for superconducting Transmon Arrays
Terry Wonjun Park
Abstract
Abstract Fabrication-induced variation in Josephson junction parameters ---shunt capacitance~$C$, normal-state resistance~$\RN$, and superconducting gap~$\Dgap$---introduces uncertainty in transmon qubit frequencies and leads to residual $ZZ$ crosstalk that limits multi-qubit gate fidelity. This work presents a quantitative, end-to-end simulation framework that maps junction-level disorder to GHZ state fidelity in a three-qubit fixed-coupling transmon array. Five concrete results are obtained. (1)~An analytic pipeline is constructed linking $(C,\RN,\Dgap)$ to qubit frequency $\omega_{01}$ and detuning $\Delta$, enabling direct propagation of fabrication noise into gate-level error rates. (2)~Monte Carlo analysis with 2\% parameter variation shows that normal-state resistance dominates detuning uncertainty, producing $\sigma_\Delta=0.113$\,GHz---approximately $1.4\times$ larger than variations from $C$ or $\Dgap$. (3)~Two error models are implemented and compared: a probabilistic depolarizing model and a coherent $ZZ$ model using the anharmonicity-corrected dispersive shift $\zeta_{ZZ}=g^2(1/\Delta-1/(\Delta+\alpha))$. Because Model 1 encodes only the \emph{magnitude} of the coupling-induced error while Model 2 encodes its \emph{signed, oscillatory phase}, the two models are not interchangeable estimates of the same quantity: their predictions diverge by up to $|\Delta F| \approx 0.66$ in GHZ fidelity near the boundary of the perturbation-validity exclusion zone, with Model 2 alone capturing the periodic revivals in fidelity that a magnitude-only stochastic model cannot represent by construction. (4)~The coherent model identifies the breakdown of second-order perturbation theory at $\Delta\approx|\alpha|=0.248$\,GHz, which, combined with fabrication-induced detuning spread, yields a conservative model-avoidance region $\Delta\in[0.02,0.47]$\,GHz within which non-perturbative treatment is required for quantitative characterization. (5)~Model-selection guidance is established: the probabilistic model provides a conservative bound for threshold estimation, while the coherent model is required for accurate hardware characterization and mitigation design. Finally, the framework is structured to allow systematic extension to more realistic noise channels, including leakage, correlated fabrication disorder, and non-perturbative multilevel dynamics, providing a pathway toward experimentally validated device-level error modeling.