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IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering (QCE)

An ML-Based Quantum Advantage Calculator

Miguel Paredes Quiñones, Ítalo Santana, Diego Noble

Published Aug 30, 2025• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

We developed a quantum-advantage predictor tool which uses machine learning models to determine when and at what cost a computational problem can be feasibly executed on gate-based quantum computers. We trained the models on data from Quantum Resource Estimators. Our ML-based tool aims at demonstrating a more realistic calculation of running times by considering not only QRE results but also the classical computational effort in running circuits into a quantum hardware (e.g., transpilation, algorithm preparation, solution encoding/decoding, etc.). The proposed tool is divided into two main sections: advantage may happen based on by year or by hardware evolutions for a determined problem and hardware specification. In both sections, a user can select a set of input parameters to verify the resulting runtimes and costs of quantum and classical parts to determine if quantum advantage will be achievable. Our application demonstrates that, despite limited information from vendors, we can still obtain accurate predictions to determine the realization of quantum advantage.

DOI
10.1109/qce65121.2025.10353

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We developed a quantum-advantage predictor tool which uses machine learning models to determine when and at what cost a computational problem can be feasibly executed on gate-based quantum computers. We trained the models on data from Quantum Resource Estimators. Our ML-based tool aims at demonstrating a more realistic calculation of running times by considering not only QRE results but also the classical computational effort in running circuits into a quantum hardware (e.g., transpilation, algorithm preparation, solution encoding/decoding, etc.). The proposed tool is divided into two main sections: advantage may happen based on by year or by hardware evolutions for a determined problem and hardware specification. In both sections, a user can select a set of input parameters to verify the resulting runtimes and costs of quantum and classical parts to determine if quantum advantage will be achievable. Our application demonstrates that, despite limited information from vendors, we can still obtain accurate predictions to determine the realization of quantum advantage.
We study the performance of classical and quantum machine learning (ML) models in predicting outcomes of physical experiments. The experiments depend on an input parameter x and involve execution of a (possibly unknown) quantum process E. Our figure of merit is the number of runs of E required to achieve a desired prediction performance. We consider classical ML models that perform a measurement and record the classical outcome after each run of E, and quantum ML models that can access E coherently to acquire quantum data; the classical or quantum data are then used to predict the outcomes of future experiments. We prove that for any input distribution D(x), a classical ML model can provide accurate predictions on average by accessing E a number of times comparable to the optimal quantum ML model. In contrast, for achieving an accurate prediction on all inputs, we prove that the exponential quantum advantage is possible. For example, to predict the expectations of all Pauli observables in an n-qubit system ρ, classical ML models require 2^{Ω(n)} copies of ρ, but we present a quantum ML model using only O(n) copies. Our results clarify where the quantum advantage is possible and highlight the potential for classical ML models to address challenging quantum problems in physics and chemistry.
The development of near-term quantum computers, referred to as Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers, has progressed rapidly in the past few years resulting in several quantum computers which vary in their underlying technology and physical constraints. The performance of these computers also varies from one quantum algorithm to another. To enable efficient selection of the quantum computer that provides the highest output fidelity for a given application, an accurate noise modeling of each quantum hardware is required. However, noise modeling for a given application is a complex problem because of the unknown interaction between the quantum circuit parameters and the noise parameters of NISQ devices. We propose the use of Machine Learning (ML) to model the performance of different quantum computers at the application level. The ML models predict the output fidelity of the quantum application executed on different quantum computers given their publicly available physical constraints. We use a diverse training dataset to cover the key features for application-level benchmarking of the quantum hardware. Our results obtained from different superconducting quantum devices show that our proposed ML models enable cost-effective quantum computer selection for different quantum applications with different fidelity metrics.
Quantum computing is a new and advanced topic that refers to calculations based on the principles of quantum mechanics. It makes certain kinds of problems be solved easier compared to classical computers. This advantage of quantum computing can be used to implement many existing problems in different fields incredibly effectively. One important field that quantum computing has shown great results in machine learning. Until now, many different quantum algorithms have been presented to perform different machine learning approaches. In some special cases, the execution time of these quantum algorithms will be reduced exponentially compared to the classical ones. But at the same time, with increasing data volume and computation time, taking care of systems to prevent unwanted interactions with the environment can be a daunting task and since these algorithms work on machine learning problems, which usually includes big data, their implementation is very costly in terms of quantum resources. Here, in this paper, we have proposed an approach to reduce the cost of quantum circuits and to optimize quantum machine learning circuits in particular. To reduce the number of resources used, in this paper an approach including different optimization algorithms is considered. Our approach is used to optimize quantum machine learning algorithms for big data. In this case, the optimized circuits run quantum machine learning algorithms in less time than the original ones and by preserving the original functionality. Our approach improves the number of quantum gates by 10.7% and 14.9% in different circuits respectively. This is the amount of reduction for one iteration of a given sub-circuit U in the main circuit. For cases where this sub-circuit is repeated more times in the main circuit, the optimization rate is increased. Therefore, by applying the proposed method to circuits with big data, both cost and performance are improved.
Quantum computing promises the ability to compute properties of quantum systems exponentially faster than classical computers. Quantum advantage is achieved when a practical problem is solved more efficiently on a quantum computer than on a classical computer. Demonstrating quantum advantage requires a powerful quantum computer with low error rates and an efficient quantum algorithm that has a useful application. Despite rapid progress in hardware development, we still lack useful applications that are feasible for the next generation of quantum computers. Here we argue that an exponential quantum advantage exists in producing numerical resource estimates of larger quantum algorithms by accurately measuring simulation errors. We provide a quantum algorithm for measuring simulation errors of Trotter-based algorithms. Our results indicate that this method will reduce runtimes of quantum algorithms by approximately three orders of magnitude for one-hundred qubit systems. We also predict that these reductions will increase with system size. The methods we propose require relatively few qubits and operations, meaning the next generation of quantum computers could compute simulation errors for classically intractable systems. Since the underlying computations that lead to reduced resource estimates are infeasible for classical computers, this task is a candidate for demonstrating practical quantum advantage.
Machine Learning (ML) has been widely applied across numerous domains due to its ability to automatically identify informative patterns from data for various tasks. The availability of large-scale data and advanced computational power enables the development of sophisticated models and training strategies, leading to state-of-the-art performance, but it also introduces substantial challenges. Quantum Computing (QC), which exploits quantum mechanisms for computation, has attracted growing attention and significant global investment as it may address these challenges. Consequently, Quantum Machine Learning (QML), the integration of these two fields, has received increasing interest, with a notable rise in related studies in recent years. We are motivated to review these existing contributions regarding quantum circuit-based learning models for classical data analysis and highlight the identified potentials and challenges of this technique. Specifically, we focus not only on QML models, both kernel-based and neural network-based, but also on recent explorations of their integration with classical machine learning layers within hybrid frameworks. Moreover, we examine both theoretical analysis and empirical findings to better understand their capabilities, and we also discuss the efforts on noise-resilient and hardware-efficient QML that could enhance its practicality under current hardware limitations. In addition, we cover several emerging paradigms for advanced quantum circuit design and highlight the adaptability of QML across representative application domains. This study aims to provide an overview of the contributions made to bridge quantum computing and machine learning, offering insights and guidance to support its future development and pave the way for broader adoption in the coming years.
The integration of quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI) constitutes a bidirectional synergy that is reshaping both disciplines. This review investigates the reciprocal relationship in which AI addresses foundational challenges in quantum computing, while quantum computing offers the potential to advance machine learning beyond classical constraints. Recent advancements exemplify this interaction: Google DeepMind’s AlphaQubit neural network decoder has achieved state-of-the-art quantum error correction, improving performance by 6% over tensor networks and 30% over correlated matching methods. Additionally, quantum neural networks have demonstrated exponential improvements in sample complexity for specific learning tasks. This review systematically examines the current landscape of quantum-AI integration across three primary dimensions. First, it addresses AI-enhanced quantum systems, such as transformer-based error correction, reinforcement learning for circuit optimization, and AI-driven hardware calibration. Second, it explores quantum-accelerated machine learning algorithms, including variational quantum neural networks, quantum generative adversarial networks, and quantum reinforcement learning. Third, it evaluates industry deployments in sectors such as life sciences, financial services, climate modeling, and pharmaceutical development. Notable examples include IonQ’s quantum chemistry simulations, which achieved 40% efficiency improvements in carbon capture material design; St. Jude’s identification of KRAS protein inhibitors using quantum machine learning with experimental validation; and JP Morgan Chase’s implementation of quantum portfolio optimization. The analysis indicates that the field has advanced from preliminary demonstrations to production-grade applications, especially in drug discovery and molecular simulation, where quantum computing offers measurable benefits. Nevertheless, several challenges remain, including barren plateaus in variational algorithms, scalability constraints in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, requirements for real-time decoding speed, and the necessity for fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) systems. IBM’s 2029 roadmap, which targets 200 logical qubits capable of executing 100 million gates, together with progress in high-rate quantum low-density parity-check codes, outlines a trajectory toward practical fault tolerance. This review makes two principal research contributions: Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for Quantum Advantage Assessment: We establish the first systematic, integrated methodology for determining quantum computing feasibility that combines problem characterization, resource estimation, quantum advantage assessment, and quantum algorithm paradigm selection. This framework consolidates criteria scattered across academic literature and industry practice into a unified decision-making tool applicable across chemistry, optimization, machine learning, and simulation domains. The framework addresses a critical industry need: enabling non-expert practitioners (chemists, financial analysts, materials scientists) to objectively assess quantum computing suitability without requiring deep quantum expertise. Novel Quantum Resource Optimization Algorithms: We present three concrete algorithmic contributions advancing quantum-AI integration: • Data Encoding Efficiency Algorithm that automatically selects optimal qubit encoding strategies (amplitude vs. angle encoding) minimizing total quantum resource consumption • Error Budget Optimization Algorithm that iteratively determines optimal quantum error correction code distance balancing logical error rate targets against physical qubit overhead • Real-time Hardware Specification Aggregation from multiple quantum cloud platforms (IBM Quantum, Amazon Braket, Google, IonQ) enabling dynamic feasibility assessment as hardware capabilities evolve Combined, these contributions establish quantum computing advantage assessment as a rigorous, data-driven discipline rather than ad-hoc expert judgment. The framework enables strategic quantum computing investment decisions, accelerates problem identification for early quantum utility, and provides a reference methodology for standardizing quantum advantage evaluation across academia and industry. This review synthesizes insights from recent academic literature, industry implementations, and expert perspectives to deliver a comprehensive assessment of quantum-AI synergies grounded in this evaluation framework. The mathematical foundations, ranging from quantum Fourier transforms to Gaussian processes, are examined. Best practices for researchers and practitioners are also outlined. The findings suggest that, although universal quantum advantage has not yet been realized, domain-specific quantum-AI applications in chemistry, optimization, and sensing are achieving practical utility in 2024-2025. This development marks a significant transition from theoretical potential to commercial realization, informed by rigorous evaluation methodologies.