Quantum computing promises the ability to compute properties of quantum systems exponentially faster than classical computers. Quantum advantage is achieved when a practical problem is solved more efficiently on a quantum computer than on a classical computer. Demonstrating quantum advantage requires a powerful quantum computer with low error rates and an efficient quantum algorithm that has a useful application. Despite rapid progress in hardware development, we still lack useful applications that are feasible for the next generation of quantum computers. Here we argue that an exponential quantum advantage exists in producing numerical resource estimates of larger quantum algorithms by accurately measuring simulation errors. We provide a quantum algorithm for measuring simulation errors of Trotter-based algorithms. Our results indicate that this method will reduce runtimes of quantum algorithms by approximately three orders of magnitude for one-hundred qubit systems. We also predict that these reductions will increase with system size. The methods we propose require relatively few qubits and operations, meaning the next generation of quantum computers could compute simulation errors for classically intractable systems. Since the underlying computations that lead to reduced resource estimates are infeasible for classical computers, this task is a candidate for demonstrating practical quantum advantage.
Quantum computing promises the ability to compute properties of quantum systems exponentially faster than classical computers. Quantum advantage is achieved when a practical problem is solved more efficiently on a quantum computer than on a classical computer. Demonstrating quantum advantage requires a powerful quantum computer with low error rates and an efficient quantum algorithm that has a useful application. Despite rapid progress in hardware development, we still lack useful applications that are feasible for the next generation of quantum computers. Here we argue that an exponential quantum advantage exists in producing numerical resource estimates of larger quantum algorithms by accurately measuring simulation errors. We provide a quantum algorithm for measuring simulation errors of Trotter-based algorithms. Our results indicate that this method will reduce runtimes of quantum algorithms by approximately three orders of magnitude for one-hundred qubit systems. We also predict that these reductions will increase with system size. The methods we propose require relatively few qubits and operations, meaning the next generation of quantum computers could compute simulation errors for classically intractable systems. Since the underlying computations that lead to reduced resource estimates are infeasible for classical computers, this task is a candidate for demonstrating practical quantum advantage.
While quantum computers promise to solve some scientifically and commercially valuable problems thought intractable for classical machines, delivering on this promise will require a large-scale quantum machine. Understanding the impact of architecture design choices for a scaled quantum stack for specific applications, prior to full realization of the quantum system, is an important open challenge. To this end, we develop a framework for quantum resource estimation, abstracting the layers of the stack, to estimate resources required across these layers for large-scale quantum applications. Using a tool that implements this framework, we assess three scaled quantum applications and find that hundreds of thousands to millions of physical qubits are needed to achieve practical quantum advantage. We identify three qubit parameters, namely size, speed, and controllability, that are critical at scale to rendering these applications practical. A goal of our work is to accelerate progress towards practical quantum advantage by enabling the broader community to explore design choices across the stack, from algorithms to qubits.
Quantum computing has made considerable progress in recent years in both software and hardware. But to unlock the power of quantum computers in solving problems that cannot be efficiently solved classically, quantum computing at scale is necessary. Unfortunately, quantum simulators suffer from their exponential complexity and, at the same time, the currently available quantum computing hardware is still rather limited (even if roadmaps make intriguing promises). Hence, in order to evaluate quantum computing applications, end-users are still frequently restricted to toy-size problem instances (which additionally often do not take error correction into account). This substantially hinders the development and assessment of real-world quantum computing applications. In this work, we demonstrate how to utilize Resource Estimation to improve this situation. We show how the current workflow (relying on simulation and/or execution) can be complemented with an estimation step, allowing that end-users (1) actually can consider real-world problem instances already today (also considering error correction schemes and correspondingly required hardware resources), (2) can start exploring possible optimizations of those instances across the entire design space, and (3) can incorporate hypotheses of hardware development trends to derive more informed and, thus, better design space parameters. Overall, this enables end-users already today to check out the promises of possible future quantum computing applications, even if the corresponding hardware to execute them is not available yet.
Quantum computing has made considerable progress in recent years in both software and hardware. But to unlock the power of quantum computers in solving problems that cannot be efficiently solved classically, quantum computing at scale is necessary. Unfortunately, quantum simulators suffer from their exponential complexity and, at the same time, the currently available quantum computing hardware is still rather limited (even if roadmaps make intriguing promises). Hence, in order to evaluate quantum computing applications, end-users are still frequently restricted to toy-size problem instances (which additionally often do not take error correction into account). This substantially hinders the development and assessment of real-world quantum computing applications. In this work, we demonstrate how to utilize Resource Estimation to improve this situation. We show how the current workflow (relying on simulation and/or execution) can be complemented with an estimation step, allowing that end-users (1) actually can consider real-world problem instances already today (also considering error correction schemes and correspondingly required hardware resources), (2) can start exploring possible optimizations of those instances across the entire design space, and (3) can incorporate hypotheses of hardware development trends to derive more informed and, thus, better design space parameters. Overall, this enables end-users already today to check out the promises of possible future quantum computing applications, even if the corresponding hardware to execute them is not available yet.
Error mitigation has elevated quantum computing to the scale of hundreds of qubits and tens of layers; however, yet larger scales (deeper circuits) are needed to fully exploit the potential of quantum computing to solve practical problems otherwise intractable. Here we demonstrate three key results that pave the way for the leap from quantum utility to quantum advantage: (1) we present a thorough derivation of random and systematic errors associated to the most advanced error mitigation strategies, including probabilistic error cancellation (PEC), zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) with probabilistic error amplification, and tensor-network error mitigation (TEM); (2) we prove that TEM (i) has the lowest sampling overhead among all three techniques under realistic noise, (ii) is optimal, in the sense that it saturates the universal lower cost bound for error mitigation, and (iii) is therefore the most promising approach to quantum advantage; (3) we propose a concrete notion of practical quantum advantage in terms of the universality of algorithms, stemming from the commercial need for a problem-independent quantum simulation device. We also establish a connection between error mitigation, relying on additional measurements, and error correction, relying on additional qubits, by demonstrating that TEM with a sufficient bond dimension works similarly to an error correcting code of distance 3. We foresee that the interplay and trade-off between the two resources will be the key to a smooth transition between error mitigation and error correction, and hence between near-term and fault-tolerant quantum computers. Meanwhile, we argue that quantum computing with optimal error mitigation, relying on modest classical computer power for tensor network contraction, has the potential to reach larger scales in accurate simulation than classical methods alone.
While quantum computers promise to solve classically intractable problems, identifying the point at which fault-tolerant quantum computation outperforms the best classical algorithms for practical applications remains an outstanding challenge. Here we establish a concrete quantum-classical crossover for quantum many-body dynamics under realistic hardware conditions. We introduce a scalable fault-tolerant framework that combines coherent observable estimation with a space-time-efficient implementation of non-Clifford rotations, suppressing the residual logical errors that limit existing partially fault-tolerant approaches. A benchmark against state-of-the-art tensor-network and variational Monte Carlo algorithms reveals a concrete crossover for mixed-field Ising dynamics at modest system sizes. For a physical error rate of p=10−3, fault-tolerant simulation requires approximately 2 hours and 3.7×105 physical qubits for a 100-site 1D system, whereas tensor network approaches would require about 100 years. For 2D models, where rapid entanglement growth limits the classical evolution time, we project quantum runtimes within minutes. A physical error rate of p=10−4 leads to at least an order of magnitude reduction in qubit count (3.1×104 physical qubits) and runtime (minutes for 1D and seconds for 2D). The reduction in quantum runtime arises from our improved rotation-state injection and co-design of quantum error correction and observable-estimation protocols, which jointly suppress logical-error accumulation and reduce sampling overhead. Our results establish a scalable route towards practical quantum advantage and identify quantitative engineering targets for future fault-tolerant architectures.
Quantum computing has emerged as a promising paradigm for addressing computational challenges in physics that remain intractable for classical methods. This study presents a quantitative benchmarking analysis of prominent quantum algorithms applied to representative physics problem classes, with the objective of evaluating their computational performance relative to state-of-the-art classical algorithms. Using standardized performance metrics—including execution time, algorithmic complexity, resource utilization, accuracy, scalability, and quantum advantage ratios—the study systematically compares quantum and classical approaches across multiple experimental configurations. The results demonstrate that quantum algorithms exhibit measurable performance gains for specific problem types, particularly in terms of runtime efficiency and scaling behavior, while also highlighting practical constraints related to qubit requirements and circuit depth. Visual and tabulated analyses further reveal that quantum advantage is highly problem-dependent and influenced by algorithmic structure and system size. Overall, the findings provide empirical evidence that quantum algorithms can offer substantial computational benefits for selected physics applications, while underscoring the importance of quantitative benchmarking in distinguishing theoretical promise from practical performance. This work contributes to ongoing efforts to objectively assess quantum advantage and informs future research directions in quantum algorithm development and physics-based applications.