MICHAEL IBISON [1] ABSTRACT: This paper presents a theory of statistical psychokinesis that explains observed statistical anomalies with a minimal assumption about the influence of an agent upon a random process. The theory attributes the agent with an ability to accept or reject the immanent outcome of a random frail: if the immanent outcome is deemed unfavorable, the agent is attributed with the ability to choose again from the same distribution. From this very simple in-going assumption, it is deduced that the PK effect at the run level is maximized when the variance of the underlying random process is maximal. The theory thereby gains support from the modern view of psychokinesis as an essentially statistical phenomenon. This theory of Pit gives rise to a mathematical specification of the trial level influence that is identical to that of a classical model due to Schmidt. At the trial-level specification, and the run-level prediction, acceptance-rejection theory conflicts with decision augmentation theory and a mean-shift model. Suggestions are made for an experimental test between these three competing models. BACKGROUND PK as a Statistical Anomaly The modern view of PK is that it is an essentially statistical phenomenon, that determinism precludes, and randomicity favors, PK. Consequently, one is led to speculate that the origin of PK will be found to lie in quantum mechanics (QM), possibly as a component of the mysterious process of wave function collapse (Walker, 1975; Schmidt, 1982). Though even without a detailed physical model of the modality of PK at the quantum level, one can confidently specify some characteristics demanded of a classical statistical level description. Specifically: if the manifestation of PK requires noise, then an anomalous PK-induced effect at the run level should probably be a monotonic function of the variance of the underlying random process. Earlier Work Schmidt (1975) has given a classical statistical level model with this property. Though the model presented here is framed rather more psychologically than statistically or physically, it is nonetheless identical at the statistical level to Schmidt's model: both models exhibit the same (arguably) desirable relationship between a PK-induced run-level effect and the underlying variance. To date, there has been no focused experimental test of this particular statistical relationship. Comparative tests have been performed involving two systems in which, in some component, the data has a different variance (Schmidt, 1974; Ibison, 1998). In these experiments, however, in order to blind the operator to the origin, the variance of the displayed data is the same for both systems. Cognizant of these efforts, and in order to minimize the ambiguity of its predictions, acceptance-rejection theory (ART) is conservatively presented here as applicable only when the variance of a binary random process is also the variance of the observed data. Consequently, the lack of uniformity (of the variance) throughout the system disqualifies these experiments as tests of the theory. Schmidt's 1976 Experiment Schmidt (1976) performed an experiment particularly relevant to the theory in this paper. He compared the PK-susceptibility of two machines that were designed to give different probabilities to the high outcome of a binary trial. In these, binary trials were generated with high (= hit) outcome probability p = 1/8 (low probability p = 7/8) from a difficult machine, and with high (= hit) probability p= 7/8 (low probability q = 1/8) from an easy machine. Which of these two machines was responsible for the trial value presented to the PK agent was decided by a prerecorded look-up-table (LUT), whose entries were the output of another random process with p = q = 1/2. The agent was blinded to the value of this decision variable. (The LUT is present to test a feature of Schmidt's model that is peripheral to the issue of concern here. …
MICHAEL IBISON [1] ABSTRACT: This paper presents a theory of statistical psychokinesis that explains observed statistical anomalies with a minimal assumption about the influence of an agent upon a random process. The theory attributes the agent with an ability to accept or reject the immanent outcome of a random frail: if the immanent outcome is deemed unfavorable, the agent is attributed with the ability to choose again from the same distribution. From this very simple in-going assumption, it is deduced that the PK effect at the run level is maximized when the variance of the underlying random process is maximal. The theory thereby gains support from the modern view of psychokinesis as an essentially statistical phenomenon. This theory of Pit gives rise to a mathematical specification of the trial level influence that is identical to that of a classical model due to Schmidt. At the trial-level specification, and the run-level prediction, acceptance-rejection theory conflicts with decision augmentation theory and a mean-shift model. Suggestions are made for an experimental test between these three competing models. BACKGROUND PK as a Statistical Anomaly The modern view of PK is that it is an essentially statistical phenomenon, that determinism precludes, and randomicity favors, PK. Consequently, one is led to speculate that the origin of PK will be found to lie in quantum mechanics (QM), possibly as a component of the mysterious process of wave function collapse (Walker, 1975; Schmidt, 1982). Though even without a detailed physical model of the modality of PK at the quantum level, one can confidently specify some characteristics demanded of a classical statistical level description. Specifically: if the manifestation of PK requires noise, then an anomalous PK-induced effect at the run level should probably be a monotonic function of the variance of the underlying random process. Earlier Work Schmidt (1975) has given a classical statistical level model with this property. Though the model presented here is framed rather more psychologically than statistically or physically, it is nonetheless identical at the statistical level to Schmidt's model: both models exhibit the same (arguably) desirable relationship between a PK-induced run-level effect and the underlying variance. To date, there has been no focused experimental test of this particular statistical relationship. Comparative tests have been performed involving two systems in which, in some component, the data has a different variance (Schmidt, 1974; Ibison, 1998). In these experiments, however, in order to blind the operator to the origin, the variance of the displayed data is the same for both systems. Cognizant of these efforts, and in order to minimize the ambiguity of its predictions, acceptance-rejection theory (ART) is conservatively presented here as applicable only when the variance of a binary random process is also the variance of the observed data. Consequently, the lack of uniformity (of the variance) throughout the system disqualifies these experiments as tests of the theory. Schmidt's 1976 Experiment Schmidt (1976) performed an experiment particularly relevant to the theory in this paper. He compared the PK-susceptibility of two machines that were designed to give different probabilities to the high outcome of a binary trial. In these, binary trials were generated with high (= hit) outcome probability p = 1/8 (low probability p = 7/8) from a difficult machine, and with high (= hit) probability p= 7/8 (low probability q = 1/8) from an easy machine. Which of these two machines was responsible for the trial value presented to the PK agent was decided by a prerecorded look-up-table (LUT), whose entries were the output of another random process with p = q = 1/2. The agent was blinded to the value of this decision variable. (The LUT is present to test a feature of Schmidt's model that is peripheral to the issue of concern here. …
PK experiments with prerecorded targets (Schmidt, 1976) are interesting because they suggest a variety of new test arrangements to study the basic PK mechanism. In addition, they permit the inclusion of independent observers who, with little time investment, can obtain first-hand evidence of any anomalous effects that may occur. Four such experiments with different independent observers, different subject populations, and minor variations have been performed previously (Schmidt & Braud, 1993; Schmidt, Morris, & Hardin, 1990; Schmidt, Morris, & Rudolph, 1986; Schmidt & Schlitz, 1988) with the first author as main experimenter and the other one or two authors acting as independent observers. The results of PK experiments with prerecorded random events appear most interesting and most puzzling because the subject's mental effort is made long after the random events to be affected have occurred. One tentative viewpoint (Schmidt, 1978; Walker, 1979) is that the subject's mental effort could act backward to the time when the random events were generated and recorded. This would imply a noncausal mechanism in the sense that the effect (the biasing of the random events) occurs before the cause (the mental effort). It might be this element of noncausality that makes psychic phenomena so intuitively implausible and at odds with the known principles of physics. Another viewpoint (Schmidt, 1982) is based on the quantum theoretical notion that there is no if there is no observer. Thus, the decisions of the random generator might become reality only when the subject observes the outcome during the test session. The subject's effort would not have to act into the past because the decision on the outcome would not yet be made until the subject received feedback during the PK test session. In this case, a preobservation of the recorded events should inhibit the subject's success, because the preobservation would make the random decisions real so that the subject's subsequent mental effort would come too late. For this reason it seemed particularly interesting to conduct an experiment in which half of the prerecorded random events had been preinspected so that one could compare the possible PK effects on the preobserved and not-observed events. One previous study (Schmidt, 1985) has indicated an inhibition of the PK effect by preobservation. In view of the central role of the question, however, further studies of the preobservation effect seem most important. In this and the four previous studies, the question of highest priority was whether a PK effect could be demonstrated under tightly controlled conditions. Because preobservation might inhibit the PK effect, we decided in advance to base the possible evidence for the existence of PK only on the results from the not-preobserved events. Although the independent observer was somewhat skeptical about the existence of PK, he was very interested in a possible preobservation effect because of its possible implications for quantum theory. Our subject pool consisted primarily of martial arts students as a matter of practical convenience. This population was relatively easily accessible and one that the experimenter had not yet explored. No attempt was made, however, to compare martial arts training and skill with PK performance systematically. METHOD The study was structured into 20 units such that a unit could be considered as a mini-experiment. Each unit was subdivided into 100 blocks of binary data. The sequence of binary data in each block determined two partial results, an even result and an odd result, arising from the even- or odd-numbered bits in the sequence. The partial results were defined so that by inverting the bits in the sequence (interchanging 1s and 0s) the signs of the partial results were inverted. In following the procedure for each unit, the experimenter used a true random generator to record the random bit-sequences for the 100 blocks on floppy disk. …
A psychokinetic (PK) effect--a mental influence on the outcome of chance processes--was first reported by Louisa and J. B. Rhine (Rhine & Rhine, 1943) from experiments with dice. Through the introduction of electronic random number generators based on quantum randomness (Schmidt, 1971), the experiments became more easily accessible and even more challenging to physicists. Today, a large number of successful PK experiments with random number generators have been reported (Radin & Nelson, 1989). It has not yet been possible, however, to stabilize and strengthen the statistically weak effects so that they can be easily demonstrated on demand. The discovery of PK effects on prerecorded random events (Schmidt, 1976) did not make the gathering of data less arduous, but it permitted the inclusion of independent observers who, with little investment of time and effort, could obtain first-hand evidence for any PK effects that might occur. All five experiments to be discussed here included such independent observers. PK Tests with Prerecorded Events and Independent Observers In a typical PK experiment, a random number generator produces a binary random sequence that the subject tries to bias in a certain manner. Let us take, for example, the case where the random generator produces in each test run a sequence of 100 binary events displayed as a sequence of 100 red (for a 0-bit) and green (for a 1-bit) light flashes, while the subject is instructed to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green flashes. The sequence of red and green signals is stored on floppy disk, and a score that is measured by the difference between the numbers of red and green signals is displayed and recorded at the end of the run. The arrangement for an experiment with prerecorded random events is similar, but there is a time delay between the generation of the random events and their display to the subject. First, the random signals for a large number of test runs are generated and recorded on floppy disk. Days or months later, the stored signals are translated by the computer into a corresponding sequence of red and green light flashes while the subject tries to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green signals. Experiments have shown that selected subjects can succeed in this arrangement (Schmidt, 1976, 1987), provided that the prerecorded events have not been inspected by anybody before the subject makes the PK effort. To let an independent observer participate in the experiment, we prerecord the bit sequences for all test runs planned for the experiment, and we let a computer make a printout of the scores for all the test runs. Being careful that nobody can observe the scores, we send a sealed copy of the printout to the independent observer. Leaving the printout sealed, the independent observer randomly specifies for each test run whether the subject's PK effort should be aimed at a high score (excess of red signals in the example) or a low score (excess of green signals). In the subsequent PK test sessions, the subject follows for each test run the independent observer's assignments, aiming for an excess of red or green signals, respectively. At the end of the experiment, the independent observer opens the sealed printouts. If the subject's effort was successful, the independent observer can confirm this first-hand by a tendency of the scores to point in the directions (positive or negative) that he had randomly specified. Because the independent observer had randomly assigned the directions, he or she can be certain that no such systematic tendency should occur (in the absence of the claimed anomaly). Using an appropriate statistical method, the independent observer can assess the significance of such a tendency without having to consider the reliability of the experimenter and his procedures. Test Arrangement with Distant Subjects The five experiments under discussion followed this general outline with minor variations. …
According to standard quantum theory, the occurrence of a specific outcome during a quantum measurement is completely random (see Bell 1964). However, some authors refer to revised versions of quantum mechanics (e.g., Penrose & Hameroff 2011, Mensky 2013, Stapp 2017), and propose that the human mind can actually influence the probability of such outcomes. Empirical support for this idea has been provided by micro-psychokinesis (micro-PK) research (see Bösch, Steinkamp, & Boller 2006). However, attempts to replicate these findings have often failed (e.g. Jahn et al. 2000). In an attempt to explain these failures, von Lucadou, Römer, and Walach (2007) established a theoretical model for predicting unsystematic variations of such an influencing effect across replications, resulting in a decline of the effect in micro-PK data over time. Maier, Dechamps, and Pflitsch (2018) slightly expanded this theory by proposing that the temporal variation of such an effect follows a systematic pattern, which can be tested and used for prediction making. In this research we generated such a prediction using data from two previous studies that initially demonstrated a strong micro-PK followed by a subsequent decline in the effect over the course of 297 participants (Maier & Dechamps 2018), we then put it to test with an additionally preregistered set of recollected data from 203 subjects. We compared these results with 10,000 simulated data sets (each set with an N = 203) each comprising random data. Three tests were applied to the experimental data: an area under the curve analysis, a local maximum fit test, and an endpoint fit test. These tests revealed no significant fit of the real data regarding the predicted data pattern. Further analyses explored additional techniques, including an analysis of the highest reached Bayes Factor (BF) over the course of the experiments, the overall orientation of the BF curve, and its transformation into oscillatory components via a Fourier analysis. All these methods allowed for statistically significant differentiations between experimental data on the one side, and the control group and simulation data on the other. We conclude that the analyses of the temporal development of an effect along these lines constitute a fruitful approach toward testing non-random and volatile time trends within micro-PK data.
According to standard quantum theory, the occurrence of a specific outcome during a quantum measurement is completely random (see Bell 1964). However, some authors refer to revised versions of quantum mechanics (e.g., Penrose & Hameroff 2011, Mensky 2013, Stapp 2017), and propose that the human mind can actually influence the probability of such outcomes. Empirical support for this idea has been provided by micro-psychokinesis (micro-PK) research (see Bösch, Steinkamp, & Boller 2006). However, attempts to replicate these findings have often failed (e.g. Jahn et al. 2000). In an attempt to explain these failures, von Lucadou, Römer, and Walach (2007) established a theoretical model for predicting unsystematic variations of such an influencing effect across replications, resulting in a decline of the effect in micro-PK data over time. Maier, Dechamps, and Pflitsch (2018) slightly expanded this theory by proposing that the temporal variation of such an effect follows a systematic pattern, which can be tested and used for prediction making. In this research we generated such a prediction using data from two previous studies that initially demonstrated a strong micro-PK followed by a subsequent decline in the effect over the course of 297 participants (Maier & Dechamps 2018), we then put it to test with an additionally preregistered set of recollected data from 203 subjects. We compared these results with 10,000 simulated data sets (each set with an N = 203) each comprising random data. Three tests were applied to the experimental data: an area under the curve analysis, a local maximum fit test, and an endpoint fit test. These tests revealed no significant fit of the real data regarding the predicted data pattern. Further analyses explored additional techniques, including an analysis of the highest reached Bayes Factor (BF) over the course of the experiments, the overall orientation of the BF curve, and its transformation into oscillatory components via a Fourier analysis. All these methods allowed for statistically significant differentiations between experimental data on the one side, and the control group and simulation data on the other. We conclude that the analyses of the temporal development of an effect along these lines constitute a fruitful approach toward testing non-random and volatile time trends within micro-PK data.
Objective. Testing specific mind-related effects on reality formation by investigating deviations from quantum randomness during the process of intentional observation, also known as micro-psychokinesis (micro-PK), is one empirical approach to address the mind-matter problem. While meta-analytical evidence over decades of research suggests that observers’ conscious or unconscious motivational states could produce significant micro-PK effects on quantum number generator (QRNG) outcomes, direct replication attempts often failed or the initially strong and apparently stable effects declined over time. Therefore, in addition to a direct replication strategy, alternative confirmatory approaches have been proposed that apply Higher-Level Analytical Strategies (HLASs) to test these effects existence. The present study reports a preregistered replication attempt of a micro-PK effect on QRNG outcomes documented by a specific HLAS variant, the Change of Evidence (CoE) measures, which were performed on a post-hoc basis in an original study.Method. To assess the observers’ unconscious intentional states, in a re-analysis of an existing data set we determined participants’ personality traits (PTs) on Cluster C and analyzed the relation between Cluster C outcome and trait-related sentences selected via QRNG outputs mirroring the respective typical concerns associated with the PTs vs. neutral stimuli. We predicted the presentation of more PT-related stimuli than chance expectation among participants exhibiting high PT assessment scores (PT-high) but not among individuals who exhibited low levels of these characteristics (PT-low). Although in line with this prediction initially strong Bayesian evidence for H1 was found within the PT-high group, this effect unexpectedly declined upon further data collection to indecisive evidence. Three post-hoc CoE tests were then performed comparing the empirical data to a randomly generated set of 10,000 simulations to distinguish a false positive finding i.e., an unsystematic, random Bayesian evidence variation, from a true positive effect that later declined i.e., from a systematic one. These exploratory post-hoc re-analyses of an existing data set rejected the null hypotheses in all CoE tests performed. These findings were then tested for replicability in a preregistered replication study which will be reported here.Results. The replication attempt failed. No Bayesian evidence for micro-PK was found and none of the CoE analyses could reject the null hypothesis in the PT-high group. As expected, no effects were found in the PT-low group either.Conclusion. The findings of the herein presented analyses go along with the results of earlier studies reporting similar experimental approaches which initially revealed strong and supposedly robust evidence for the postulated effects in non-preregistered original experiments but failed in a direct replication. Most central, the present findings indicate, that even CoE measures following the idea of HLASs to circumvent the non-replicability problem cannot provide replicable higher order micro-PK effects. The results obtained are discussed with regard to the Model of Pragmatic Information (MPI).
Abstract-Mean values of the z-scores of statistical psi effects in psychokinesis (PK) and extrasensory perception (ESP) are compiled. Under the influence of psi, the z-score distribution of experiments with binary random number generators (RNGs) at large numbers N of bits is known to be shifted and widened, but to remain indifferent to N. The mean z-score of binary one-trial experiments with dream psi is noted to be not much smaller than the mean z-score of these (presumably) mostly isolated many-trial experiments with RNGs. This could suggest that with two equivalent choices PK and ESP are equally effective, or very nearly so, and the mean z-scores are almost equal at all N down to N = 1. The widening is found to be attributable to a Gaussian distribution of the magnitude of the PK effect that causes the shift, provided the z-score distribution remains Gaussian. Formulas are proposed to compute from the values of shift and widening as observed with RNGs those of psi effects with more than two equivalent choices, such as falling dice. They are only partially confirmed by the (still rather scanty) datasets of such systems. Finally, psi-induced switching and mind-neuron interaction are revisited.Keywords: statistical parapsychology--mean values--relationships between mean values--psi effects--psychokinesis (PK)--extrasensory perception (ESP)--random number generators (RNGs)