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Journal of Parapsychology

PK with Prerecorded Random Events and the Effects of Preobservation

Helmut S. Schmidt, Henry Pierce Stapp

Published Dec 1, 1993• 13 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

PK experiments with prerecorded targets (Schmidt, 1976) are interesting because they suggest a variety of new test arrangements to study the basic PK mechanism. In addition, they permit the inclusion of independent observers who, with little time investment, can obtain first-hand evidence of any anomalous effects that may occur. Four such experiments with different independent observers, different subject populations, and minor variations have been performed previously (Schmidt & Braud, 1993; Schmidt, Morris, & Hardin, 1990; Schmidt, Morris, & Rudolph, 1986; Schmidt & Schlitz, 1988) with the first author as main experimenter and the other one or two authors acting as independent observers. The results of PK experiments with prerecorded random events appear most interesting and most puzzling because the subject's mental effort is made long after the random events to be affected have occurred. One tentative viewpoint (Schmidt, 1978; Walker, 1979) is that the subject's mental effort could act backward to the time when the random events were generated and recorded. This would imply a noncausal mechanism in the sense that the effect (the biasing of the random events) occurs before the cause (the mental effort). It might be this element of noncausality that makes psychic phenomena so intuitively implausible and at odds with the known principles of physics. Another viewpoint (Schmidt, 1982) is based on the quantum theoretical notion that there is no if there is no observer. Thus, the decisions of the random generator might become reality only when the subject observes the outcome during the test session. The subject's effort would not have to act into the past because the decision on the outcome would not yet be made until the subject received feedback during the PK test session. In this case, a preobservation of the recorded events should inhibit the subject's success, because the preobservation would make the random decisions real so that the subject's subsequent mental effort would come too late. For this reason it seemed particularly interesting to conduct an experiment in which half of the prerecorded random events had been preinspected so that one could compare the possible PK effects on the preobserved and not-observed events. One previous study (Schmidt, 1985) has indicated an inhibition of the PK effect by preobservation. In view of the central role of the question, however, further studies of the preobservation effect seem most important. In this and the four previous studies, the question of highest priority was whether a PK effect could be demonstrated under tightly controlled conditions. Because preobservation might inhibit the PK effect, we decided in advance to base the possible evidence for the existence of PK only on the results from the not-preobserved events. Although the independent observer was somewhat skeptical about the existence of PK, he was very interested in a possible preobservation effect because of its possible implications for quantum theory. Our subject pool consisted primarily of martial arts students as a matter of practical convenience. This population was relatively easily accessible and one that the experimenter had not yet explored. No attempt was made, however, to compare martial arts training and skill with PK performance systematically. METHOD The study was structured into 20 units such that a unit could be considered as a mini-experiment. Each unit was subdivided into 100 blocks of binary data. The sequence of binary data in each block determined two partial results, an even result and an odd result, arising from the even- or odd-numbered bits in the sequence. The partial results were defined so that by inverting the bits in the sequence (interchanging 1s and 0s) the signs of the partial results were inverted. In following the procedure for each unit, the experimenter used a true random generator to record the random bit-sequences for the 100 blocks on floppy disk. …

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The possibility of retrocausation has been considered to explain the occurrence of anomalous phenomena in which the ostensible effects are preceded by their causes. A scrutiny of both experimental methodology and the experimental data is called for. A review of experimental data reveals the existence of such effects to be a serious possibility. The experimental methodology entails some conceptual difficulties, these depending on the underlying assumptions about the effects. A major point is an ambiguity between anomalous acquisition of information and retrocausation in exerted influences.A unifying theory has been proposed, based upon the fundamental randomness of quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanical randomness may be regarded as a tenacious phenomenon, that apparently is only resolved by the human observer of the random variable in question. This has led to the “observational theory” of anomalous phenomena, which is based upon the assumption that the preference of a motivated observer is able to interact with the extant indefinite random variable that is being observed. This observational theory has led to a novel prediction, which has been corroborated in experiments. Moreover, different classes of anomalous phenomena can be explained by the same basic mechanism. This foregoes retroactive causation, but, instead, requires that macroscopic physical variables remain in a state of indefinite reality and thus remain influenceable by mental efforts until these are observed. More work is needed to discover the relevant psychological and neurophysiological variables involved in effective motivated observation. Besides these practicalities, the fundamentals still have some interesting loose ends.

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Cumulating evidence suggests that anomalous correlations occur between mental (conscious and non-conscious) states and apparently unrelated physical or mental phenomena at a distance in space and time. In spite of the fact that the evidence is very strong, these correlations are difficult to replicate. Several examples are given of ‘failures’ to empirically replicate1 original anomalies. It is speculated that this failure to replicate, rather than indicating that the original findings are due to statistical flukes or errors, suggests that when consciousness interacts with matter, an underlying reality arises. This reality is somewhere in between the purely objective shareable reality and the purely subjective reality of one’s individual consciousness. Efforts to ‘push’ anomalous phenomena observed in this intermediate reality into the objective one apparently destroy the phenomena. Possible explanations within a physical and within a system theoretical model are discussed. The physical model is based upon an analysis of the role of consciousness in the so-called ‘Measurement Problem’ in Quantum Physics. Based upon these discussions a new systematic experimental approach for the study of anomalous phenomena is suggested.

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A psychokinetic (PK) effect--a mental influence on the outcome of chance processes--was first reported by Louisa and J. B. Rhine (Rhine & Rhine, 1943) from experiments with dice. Through the introduction of electronic random number generators based on quantum randomness (Schmidt, 1971), the experiments became more easily accessible and even more challenging to physicists. Today, a large number of successful PK experiments with random number generators have been reported (Radin & Nelson, 1989). It has not yet been possible, however, to stabilize and strengthen the statistically weak effects so that they can be easily demonstrated on demand. The discovery of PK effects on prerecorded random events (Schmidt, 1976) did not make the gathering of data less arduous, but it permitted the inclusion of independent observers who, with little investment of time and effort, could obtain first-hand evidence for any PK effects that might occur. All five experiments to be discussed here included such independent observers. PK Tests with Prerecorded Events and Independent Observers In a typical PK experiment, a random number generator produces a binary random sequence that the subject tries to bias in a certain manner. Let us take, for example, the case where the random generator produces in each test run a sequence of 100 binary events displayed as a sequence of 100 red (for a 0-bit) and green (for a 1-bit) light flashes, while the subject is instructed to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green flashes. The sequence of red and green signals is stored on floppy disk, and a score that is measured by the difference between the numbers of red and green signals is displayed and recorded at the end of the run. The arrangement for an experiment with prerecorded random events is similar, but there is a time delay between the generation of the random events and their display to the subject. First, the random signals for a large number of test runs are generated and recorded on floppy disk. Days or months later, the stored signals are translated by the computer into a corresponding sequence of red and green light flashes while the subject tries to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green signals. Experiments have shown that selected subjects can succeed in this arrangement (Schmidt, 1976, 1987), provided that the prerecorded events have not been inspected by anybody before the subject makes the PK effort. To let an independent observer participate in the experiment, we prerecord the bit sequences for all test runs planned for the experiment, and we let a computer make a printout of the scores for all the test runs. Being careful that nobody can observe the scores, we send a sealed copy of the printout to the independent observer. Leaving the printout sealed, the independent observer randomly specifies for each test run whether the subject's PK effort should be aimed at a high score (excess of red signals in the example) or a low score (excess of green signals). In the subsequent PK test sessions, the subject follows for each test run the independent observer's assignments, aiming for an excess of red or green signals, respectively. At the end of the experiment, the independent observer opens the sealed printouts. If the subject's effort was successful, the independent observer can confirm this first-hand by a tendency of the scores to point in the directions (positive or negative) that he had randomly specified. Because the independent observer had randomly assigned the directions, he or she can be certain that no such systematic tendency should occur (in the absence of the claimed anomaly). Using an appropriate statistical method, the independent observer can assess the significance of such a tendency without having to consider the reliability of the experimenter and his procedures. Test Arrangement with Distant Subjects The five experiments under discussion followed this general outline with minor variations. …

Journal of Parapsychology•Dec 1, 1993•15 citations

The Strange Properties of Psychokinesis

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•Jan 1, 1987•36 citations

Correlation Between Mental Processes and External Random Events

HELMUT J. SCHMIDT

Abstract-The report reviews the author's early work on the precognition of quantum processes, including changes introduced as safeguards against errors.

•Jan 1, 1990•3 citations

An Acceptance-Rejection Theory of Statistical Psychokinesis

Michael Ibison

MICHAEL IBISON [1] ABSTRACT: This paper presents a theory of statistical psychokinesis that explains observed statistical anomalies with a minimal assumption about the influence of an agent upon a random process. The theory attributes the agent with an ability to accept or reject the immanent outcome of a random frail: if the immanent outcome is deemed unfavorable, the agent is attributed with the ability to choose again from the same distribution. From this very simple in-going assumption, it is deduced that the PK effect at the run level is maximized when the variance of the underlying random process is maximal. The theory thereby gains support from the modern view of psychokinesis as an essentially statistical phenomenon. This theory of Pit gives rise to a mathematical specification of the trial level influence that is identical to that of a classical model due to Schmidt. At the trial-level specification, and the run-level prediction, acceptance-rejection theory conflicts with decision augmentation theory and a mean-shift model. Suggestions are made for an experimental test between these three competing models. BACKGROUND PK as a Statistical Anomaly The modern view of PK is that it is an essentially statistical phenomenon, that determinism precludes, and randomicity favors, PK. Consequently, one is led to speculate that the origin of PK will be found to lie in quantum mechanics (QM), possibly as a component of the mysterious process of wave function collapse (Walker, 1975; Schmidt, 1982). Though even without a detailed physical model of the modality of PK at the quantum level, one can confidently specify some characteristics demanded of a classical statistical level description. Specifically: if the manifestation of PK requires noise, then an anomalous PK-induced effect at the run level should probably be a monotonic function of the variance of the underlying random process. Earlier Work Schmidt (1975) has given a classical statistical level model with this property. Though the model presented here is framed rather more psychologically than statistically or physically, it is nonetheless identical at the statistical level to Schmidt's model: both models exhibit the same (arguably) desirable relationship between a PK-induced run-level effect and the underlying variance. To date, there has been no focused experimental test of this particular statistical relationship. Comparative tests have been performed involving two systems in which, in some component, the data has a different variance (Schmidt, 1974; Ibison, 1998). In these experiments, however, in order to blind the operator to the origin, the variance of the displayed data is the same for both systems. Cognizant of these efforts, and in order to minimize the ambiguity of its predictions, acceptance-rejection theory (ART) is conservatively presented here as applicable only when the variance of a binary random process is also the variance of the observed data. Consequently, the lack of uniformity (of the variance) throughout the system disqualifies these experiments as tests of the theory. Schmidt's 1976 Experiment Schmidt (1976) performed an experiment particularly relevant to the theory in this paper. He compared the PK-susceptibility of two machines that were designed to give different probabilities to the high outcome of a binary trial. In these, binary trials were generated with high (= hit) outcome probability p = 1/8 (low probability p = 7/8) from a difficult machine, and with high (= hit) probability p= 7/8 (low probability q = 1/8) from an easy machine. Which of these two machines was responsible for the trial value presented to the PK agent was decided by a prerecorded look-up-table (LUT), whose entries were the output of another random process with p = q = 1/2. The agent was blinded to the value of this decision variable. (The LUT is present to test a feature of Schmidt's model that is peripheral to the issue of concern here. …

Journal of Parapsychology•Jun 1, 2000•1 citation
PK experiments with prerecorded targets (Schmidt, 1976) are interesting because they suggest a variety of new test arrangements to study the basic PK mechanism. In addition, they permit the inclusion of independent observers who, with little time investment, can obtain first-hand evidence of any anomalous effects that may occur. Four such experiments with different independent observers, different subject populations, and minor variations have been performed previously (Schmidt & Braud, 1993; Schmidt, Morris, & Hardin, 1990; Schmidt, Morris, & Rudolph, 1986; Schmidt & Schlitz, 1988) with the first author as main experimenter and the other one or two authors acting as independent observers. The results of PK experiments with prerecorded random events appear most interesting and most puzzling because the subject's mental effort is made long after the random events to be affected have occurred. One tentative viewpoint (Schmidt, 1978; Walker, 1979) is that the subject's mental effort could act backward to the time when the random events were generated and recorded. This would imply a noncausal mechanism in the sense that the effect (the biasing of the random events) occurs before the cause (the mental effort). It might be this element of noncausality that makes psychic phenomena so intuitively implausible and at odds with the known principles of physics. Another viewpoint (Schmidt, 1982) is based on the quantum theoretical notion that there is no if there is no observer. Thus, the decisions of the random generator might become reality only when the subject observes the outcome during the test session. The subject's effort would not have to act into the past because the decision on the outcome would not yet be made until the subject received feedback during the PK test session. In this case, a preobservation of the recorded events should inhibit the subject's success, because the preobservation would make the random decisions real so that the subject's subsequent mental effort would come too late. For this reason it seemed particularly interesting to conduct an experiment in which half of the prerecorded random events had been preinspected so that one could compare the possible PK effects on the preobserved and not-observed events. One previous study (Schmidt, 1985) has indicated an inhibition of the PK effect by preobservation. In view of the central role of the question, however, further studies of the preobservation effect seem most important. In this and the four previous studies, the question of highest priority was whether a PK effect could be demonstrated under tightly controlled conditions. Because preobservation might inhibit the PK effect, we decided in advance to base the possible evidence for the existence of PK only on the results from the not-preobserved events. Although the independent observer was somewhat skeptical about the existence of PK, he was very interested in a possible preobservation effect because of its possible implications for quantum theory. Our subject pool consisted primarily of martial arts students as a matter of practical convenience. This population was relatively easily accessible and one that the experimenter had not yet explored. No attempt was made, however, to compare martial arts training and skill with PK performance systematically. METHOD The study was structured into 20 units such that a unit could be considered as a mini-experiment. Each unit was subdivided into 100 blocks of binary data. The sequence of binary data in each block determined two partial results, an even result and an odd result, arising from the even- or odd-numbered bits in the sequence. The partial results were defined so that by inverting the bits in the sequence (interchanging 1s and 0s) the signs of the partial results were inverted. In following the procedure for each unit, the experimenter used a true random generator to record the random bit-sequences for the 100 blocks on floppy disk. …
The possibility of retrocausation has been considered to explain the occurrence of anomalous phenomena in which the ostensible effects are preceded by their causes. A scrutiny of both experimental methodology and the experimental data is called for. A review of experimental data reveals the existence of such effects to be a serious possibility. The experimental methodology entails some conceptual difficulties, these depending on the underlying assumptions about the effects. A major point is an ambiguity between anomalous acquisition of information and retrocausation in exerted influences.A unifying theory has been proposed, based upon the fundamental randomness of quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanical randomness may be regarded as a tenacious phenomenon, that apparently is only resolved by the human observer of the random variable in question. This has led to the “observational theory” of anomalous phenomena, which is based upon the assumption that the preference of a motivated observer is able to interact with the extant indefinite random variable that is being observed. This observational theory has led to a novel prediction, which has been corroborated in experiments. Moreover, different classes of anomalous phenomena can be explained by the same basic mechanism. This foregoes retroactive causation, but, instead, requires that macroscopic physical variables remain in a state of indefinite reality and thus remain influenceable by mental efforts until these are observed. More work is needed to discover the relevant psychological and neurophysiological variables involved in effective motivated observation. Besides these practicalities, the fundamentals still have some interesting loose ends.
Cumulating evidence suggests that anomalous correlations occur between mental (conscious and non-conscious) states and apparently unrelated physical or mental phenomena at a distance in space and time. In spite of the fact that the evidence is very strong, these correlations are difficult to replicate. Several examples are given of ‘failures’ to empirically replicate1 original anomalies. It is speculated that this failure to replicate, rather than indicating that the original findings are due to statistical flukes or errors, suggests that when consciousness interacts with matter, an underlying reality arises. This reality is somewhere in between the purely objective shareable reality and the purely subjective reality of one’s individual consciousness. Efforts to ‘push’ anomalous phenomena observed in this intermediate reality into the objective one apparently destroy the phenomena. Possible explanations within a physical and within a system theoretical model are discussed. The physical model is based upon an analysis of the role of consciousness in the so-called ‘Measurement Problem’ in Quantum Physics. Based upon these discussions a new systematic experimental approach for the study of anomalous phenomena is suggested.
A psychokinetic (PK) effect--a mental influence on the outcome of chance processes--was first reported by Louisa and J. B. Rhine (Rhine & Rhine, 1943) from experiments with dice. Through the introduction of electronic random number generators based on quantum randomness (Schmidt, 1971), the experiments became more easily accessible and even more challenging to physicists. Today, a large number of successful PK experiments with random number generators have been reported (Radin & Nelson, 1989). It has not yet been possible, however, to stabilize and strengthen the statistically weak effects so that they can be easily demonstrated on demand. The discovery of PK effects on prerecorded random events (Schmidt, 1976) did not make the gathering of data less arduous, but it permitted the inclusion of independent observers who, with little investment of time and effort, could obtain first-hand evidence for any PK effects that might occur. All five experiments to be discussed here included such independent observers. PK Tests with Prerecorded Events and Independent Observers In a typical PK experiment, a random number generator produces a binary random sequence that the subject tries to bias in a certain manner. Let us take, for example, the case where the random generator produces in each test run a sequence of 100 binary events displayed as a sequence of 100 red (for a 0-bit) and green (for a 1-bit) light flashes, while the subject is instructed to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green flashes. The sequence of red and green signals is stored on floppy disk, and a score that is measured by the difference between the numbers of red and green signals is displayed and recorded at the end of the run. The arrangement for an experiment with prerecorded random events is similar, but there is a time delay between the generation of the random events and their display to the subject. First, the random signals for a large number of test runs are generated and recorded on floppy disk. Days or months later, the stored signals are translated by the computer into a corresponding sequence of red and green light flashes while the subject tries to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green signals. Experiments have shown that selected subjects can succeed in this arrangement (Schmidt, 1976, 1987), provided that the prerecorded events have not been inspected by anybody before the subject makes the PK effort. To let an independent observer participate in the experiment, we prerecord the bit sequences for all test runs planned for the experiment, and we let a computer make a printout of the scores for all the test runs. Being careful that nobody can observe the scores, we send a sealed copy of the printout to the independent observer. Leaving the printout sealed, the independent observer randomly specifies for each test run whether the subject's PK effort should be aimed at a high score (excess of red signals in the example) or a low score (excess of green signals). In the subsequent PK test sessions, the subject follows for each test run the independent observer's assignments, aiming for an excess of red or green signals, respectively. At the end of the experiment, the independent observer opens the sealed printouts. If the subject's effort was successful, the independent observer can confirm this first-hand by a tendency of the scores to point in the directions (positive or negative) that he had randomly specified. Because the independent observer had randomly assigned the directions, he or she can be certain that no such systematic tendency should occur (in the absence of the claimed anomaly). Using an appropriate statistical method, the independent observer can assess the significance of such a tendency without having to consider the reliability of the experimenter and his procedures. Test Arrangement with Distant Subjects The five experiments under discussion followed this general outline with minor variations. …
MICHAEL IBISON [1] ABSTRACT: This paper presents a theory of statistical psychokinesis that explains observed statistical anomalies with a minimal assumption about the influence of an agent upon a random process. The theory attributes the agent with an ability to accept or reject the immanent outcome of a random frail: if the immanent outcome is deemed unfavorable, the agent is attributed with the ability to choose again from the same distribution. From this very simple in-going assumption, it is deduced that the PK effect at the run level is maximized when the variance of the underlying random process is maximal. The theory thereby gains support from the modern view of psychokinesis as an essentially statistical phenomenon. This theory of Pit gives rise to a mathematical specification of the trial level influence that is identical to that of a classical model due to Schmidt. At the trial-level specification, and the run-level prediction, acceptance-rejection theory conflicts with decision augmentation theory and a mean-shift model. Suggestions are made for an experimental test between these three competing models. BACKGROUND PK as a Statistical Anomaly The modern view of PK is that it is an essentially statistical phenomenon, that determinism precludes, and randomicity favors, PK. Consequently, one is led to speculate that the origin of PK will be found to lie in quantum mechanics (QM), possibly as a component of the mysterious process of wave function collapse (Walker, 1975; Schmidt, 1982). Though even without a detailed physical model of the modality of PK at the quantum level, one can confidently specify some characteristics demanded of a classical statistical level description. Specifically: if the manifestation of PK requires noise, then an anomalous PK-induced effect at the run level should probably be a monotonic function of the variance of the underlying random process. Earlier Work Schmidt (1975) has given a classical statistical level model with this property. Though the model presented here is framed rather more psychologically than statistically or physically, it is nonetheless identical at the statistical level to Schmidt's model: both models exhibit the same (arguably) desirable relationship between a PK-induced run-level effect and the underlying variance. To date, there has been no focused experimental test of this particular statistical relationship. Comparative tests have been performed involving two systems in which, in some component, the data has a different variance (Schmidt, 1974; Ibison, 1998). In these experiments, however, in order to blind the operator to the origin, the variance of the displayed data is the same for both systems. Cognizant of these efforts, and in order to minimize the ambiguity of its predictions, acceptance-rejection theory (ART) is conservatively presented here as applicable only when the variance of a binary random process is also the variance of the observed data. Consequently, the lack of uniformity (of the variance) throughout the system disqualifies these experiments as tests of the theory. Schmidt's 1976 Experiment Schmidt (1976) performed an experiment particularly relevant to the theory in this paper. He compared the PK-susceptibility of two machines that were designed to give different probabilities to the high outcome of a binary trial. In these, binary trials were generated with high (= hit) outcome probability p = 1/8 (low probability p = 7/8) from a difficult machine, and with high (= hit) probability p= 7/8 (low probability q = 1/8) from an easy machine. Which of these two machines was responsible for the trial value presented to the PK agent was decided by a prerecorded look-up-table (LUT), whose entries were the output of another random process with p = q = 1/2. The agent was blinded to the value of this decision variable. (The LUT is present to test a feature of Schmidt's model that is peripheral to the issue of concern here. …