Abstract-Mean values of the z-scores of statistical psi effects in psychokinesis (PK) and extrasensory perception (ESP) are compiled. Under the influence of psi, the z-score distribution of experiments with binary random number generators (RNGs) at large numbers N of bits is known to be shifted and widened, but to remain indifferent to N. The mean z-score of binary one-trial experiments with dream psi is noted to be not much smaller than the mean z-score of these (presumably) mostly isolated many-trial experiments with RNGs. This could suggest that with two equivalent choices PK and ESP are equally effective, or very nearly so, and the mean z-scores are almost equal at all N down to N = 1. The widening is found to be attributable to a Gaussian distribution of the magnitude of the PK effect that causes the shift, provided the z-score distribution remains Gaussian. Formulas are proposed to compute from the values of shift and widening as observed with RNGs those of psi effects with more than two equivalent choices, such as falling dice. They are only partially confirmed by the (still rather scanty) datasets of such systems. Finally, psi-induced switching and mind-neuron interaction are revisited.Keywords: statistical parapsychology--mean values--relationships between mean values--psi effects--psychokinesis (PK)--extrasensory perception (ESP)--random number generators (RNGs)
Abstract-Mean values of the z-scores of statistical psi effects in psychokinesis (PK) and extrasensory perception (ESP) are compiled. Under the influence of psi, the z-score distribution of experiments with binary random number generators (RNGs) at large numbers N of bits is known to be shifted and widened, but to remain indifferent to N. The mean z-score of binary one-trial experiments with dream psi is noted to be not much smaller than the mean z-score of these (presumably) mostly isolated many-trial experiments with RNGs. This could suggest that with two equivalent choices PK and ESP are equally effective, or very nearly so, and the mean z-scores are almost equal at all N down to N = 1. The widening is found to be attributable to a Gaussian distribution of the magnitude of the PK effect that causes the shift, provided the z-score distribution remains Gaussian. Formulas are proposed to compute from the values of shift and widening as observed with RNGs those of psi effects with more than two equivalent choices, such as falling dice. They are only partially confirmed by the (still rather scanty) datasets of such systems. Finally, psi-induced switching and mind-neuron interaction are revisited.Keywords: statistical parapsychology--mean values--relationships between mean values--psi effects--psychokinesis (PK)--extrasensory perception (ESP)--random number generators (RNGs)
In parapsychology, unlike psychology, there is no known way to determine whether any measured effect comes from the (so-called) subjects - S, or the (nominal) experimenter - E. In each generation parapsychology has been dominated by a mere handful of experimenters who report regular extra-chance results, while the great mass of experimenters encounter, at best, only sporadic success. This paper pursues the view that parapsychology's elite are themselves particularly endowed with psi ability: they attribute scoring to subjects, in line with the psychological tradition, while it actually comes from their own psi. The Geiger counter of the radioactive man ticks everywhere! It is suggested that the experiment using subjects is a ritual tailored to maximize experimenter-psi. Today the experiment with subjects seems to replace the Juju of former times. The E-centric view explains why parapsychological experiments can rarely be repeated by different experimenters. Skeptics maintain that many parapsychology results are due to the experimenter affecting his results in an improper way: the E-centric model agrees, but suggests that he does so with his mind rather than with his hands. What has been lacking until now are systematic methods to measure how much of a psi effect is due to subjects, and how much to the experimenter. The physics-based Observational Theories break this impasse. An outline is given of the author's take on these theories as Minimalistic Observational Theory (MOT). The parapsychological experiment is physically no more than a source of (informational) entropy which is acted on by psi. If the subject is the source of psi then he affects the result at the level of the trial. On the other hand, if the experimenter is the source of psi he (typically) affects the experiment as a single global unit. The consequences of this elementary dichotomy are remarkably wide-reaching and testable. Only two examples are noted here: for E-psi a small experiment is as good as a big one and the usual measure of effect size (based on the trial) is inappropriate; another is that the error mean squares in ANOVA will be depressed by E-psi. The effects predicted by the MOT allow partitioning of the effect into S and E components. Typically Psi effects are small and differences between models are smaller still; so a great deal of data is required. Recourse must be taken to meta-analysis as well as the modern ultra-large experiment.
A psychokinetic (PK) effect--a mental influence on the outcome of chance processes--was first reported by Louisa and J. B. Rhine (Rhine & Rhine, 1943) from experiments with dice. Through the introduction of electronic random number generators based on quantum randomness (Schmidt, 1971), the experiments became more easily accessible and even more challenging to physicists. Today, a large number of successful PK experiments with random number generators have been reported (Radin & Nelson, 1989). It has not yet been possible, however, to stabilize and strengthen the statistically weak effects so that they can be easily demonstrated on demand. The discovery of PK effects on prerecorded random events (Schmidt, 1976) did not make the gathering of data less arduous, but it permitted the inclusion of independent observers who, with little investment of time and effort, could obtain first-hand evidence for any PK effects that might occur. All five experiments to be discussed here included such independent observers. PK Tests with Prerecorded Events and Independent Observers In a typical PK experiment, a random number generator produces a binary random sequence that the subject tries to bias in a certain manner. Let us take, for example, the case where the random generator produces in each test run a sequence of 100 binary events displayed as a sequence of 100 red (for a 0-bit) and green (for a 1-bit) light flashes, while the subject is instructed to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green flashes. The sequence of red and green signals is stored on floppy disk, and a score that is measured by the difference between the numbers of red and green signals is displayed and recorded at the end of the run. The arrangement for an experiment with prerecorded random events is similar, but there is a time delay between the generation of the random events and their display to the subject. First, the random signals for a large number of test runs are generated and recorded on floppy disk. Days or months later, the stored signals are translated by the computer into a corresponding sequence of red and green light flashes while the subject tries to mentally enforce the appearance of more red than green signals. Experiments have shown that selected subjects can succeed in this arrangement (Schmidt, 1976, 1987), provided that the prerecorded events have not been inspected by anybody before the subject makes the PK effort. To let an independent observer participate in the experiment, we prerecord the bit sequences for all test runs planned for the experiment, and we let a computer make a printout of the scores for all the test runs. Being careful that nobody can observe the scores, we send a sealed copy of the printout to the independent observer. Leaving the printout sealed, the independent observer randomly specifies for each test run whether the subject's PK effort should be aimed at a high score (excess of red signals in the example) or a low score (excess of green signals). In the subsequent PK test sessions, the subject follows for each test run the independent observer's assignments, aiming for an excess of red or green signals, respectively. At the end of the experiment, the independent observer opens the sealed printouts. If the subject's effort was successful, the independent observer can confirm this first-hand by a tendency of the scores to point in the directions (positive or negative) that he had randomly specified. Because the independent observer had randomly assigned the directions, he or she can be certain that no such systematic tendency should occur (in the absence of the claimed anomaly). Using an appropriate statistical method, the independent observer can assess the significance of such a tendency without having to consider the reliability of the experimenter and his procedures. Test Arrangement with Distant Subjects The five experiments under discussion followed this general outline with minor variations. …
MICHAEL IBISON [1] ABSTRACT: This paper presents a theory of statistical psychokinesis that explains observed statistical anomalies with a minimal assumption about the influence of an agent upon a random process. The theory attributes the agent with an ability to accept or reject the immanent outcome of a random frail: if the immanent outcome is deemed unfavorable, the agent is attributed with the ability to choose again from the same distribution. From this very simple in-going assumption, it is deduced that the PK effect at the run level is maximized when the variance of the underlying random process is maximal. The theory thereby gains support from the modern view of psychokinesis as an essentially statistical phenomenon. This theory of Pit gives rise to a mathematical specification of the trial level influence that is identical to that of a classical model due to Schmidt. At the trial-level specification, and the run-level prediction, acceptance-rejection theory conflicts with decision augmentation theory and a mean-shift model. Suggestions are made for an experimental test between these three competing models. BACKGROUND PK as a Statistical Anomaly The modern view of PK is that it is an essentially statistical phenomenon, that determinism precludes, and randomicity favors, PK. Consequently, one is led to speculate that the origin of PK will be found to lie in quantum mechanics (QM), possibly as a component of the mysterious process of wave function collapse (Walker, 1975; Schmidt, 1982). Though even without a detailed physical model of the modality of PK at the quantum level, one can confidently specify some characteristics demanded of a classical statistical level description. Specifically: if the manifestation of PK requires noise, then an anomalous PK-induced effect at the run level should probably be a monotonic function of the variance of the underlying random process. Earlier Work Schmidt (1975) has given a classical statistical level model with this property. Though the model presented here is framed rather more psychologically than statistically or physically, it is nonetheless identical at the statistical level to Schmidt's model: both models exhibit the same (arguably) desirable relationship between a PK-induced run-level effect and the underlying variance. To date, there has been no focused experimental test of this particular statistical relationship. Comparative tests have been performed involving two systems in which, in some component, the data has a different variance (Schmidt, 1974; Ibison, 1998). In these experiments, however, in order to blind the operator to the origin, the variance of the displayed data is the same for both systems. Cognizant of these efforts, and in order to minimize the ambiguity of its predictions, acceptance-rejection theory (ART) is conservatively presented here as applicable only when the variance of a binary random process is also the variance of the observed data. Consequently, the lack of uniformity (of the variance) throughout the system disqualifies these experiments as tests of the theory. Schmidt's 1976 Experiment Schmidt (1976) performed an experiment particularly relevant to the theory in this paper. He compared the PK-susceptibility of two machines that were designed to give different probabilities to the high outcome of a binary trial. In these, binary trials were generated with high (= hit) outcome probability p = 1/8 (low probability p = 7/8) from a difficult machine, and with high (= hit) probability p= 7/8 (low probability q = 1/8) from an easy machine. Which of these two machines was responsible for the trial value presented to the PK agent was decided by a prerecorded look-up-table (LUT), whose entries were the output of another random process with p = q = 1/2. The agent was blinded to the value of this decision variable. (The LUT is present to test a feature of Schmidt's model that is peripheral to the issue of concern here. …
We have reported previously on positive effects found in the matrix experiment. This is a setup where a random event generator (REG) drives a display, which participants are instructed to “influence” at will, i.e., in a psychokinesis (PK) setup. The difference of this matrix experiment from standard micro-PK REG experiments was that the deviation from randomness was not measured, but a large array of 2025 correlations between the behavior of the participant and the behavior of the REG was tested. This previous experiment was significant, and we devised a consensus protocol, which was deposited before commencement, according to which we conducted two independent replications with the same experimental setup and equipment. In the first experiment 64 participants conducted the experiment in one location under the experimental guidance of KK, in the second experiment 40 participants conducted the experiment in another location under the experimental guidance of HV. The analysis used a non-parametric randomization test with 10,000 iterations. None of the two experiments was significant. While in the first experiment a very small, but non-significant effect was found, in the second experiment no effect whatsoever was detectable. Sensitivity analyses did not suggest that the effect was in fact there but overlooked by our analysis. We discuss the findings in the context of the larger debate around replicability of parapsychological (PSI) research results and our theoretical model. This starts from the assumptions that such PSI effects are likely effects of a generalized form of entanglement correlations, and a consequence of this model is that such effects must not be used for the transfer of signals. Classical experiments, however, are detectors or extractors of signals in or from systems. This seems to be prohibited. Thus, the replication problem and this failed replication is likely part of the systematic nature of these effects. This makes it unlikely that experimental research alone will be successful in the long run demonstrating PSI effects. Our conclusion is that the matrix experiment is not a replicable paradigm in PSI research.
A vivid discussion revolves around the role of the human mind in the quantum measurement process. While some authors argue that conscious observation is a necessary element to achieve the transition from quantum to classical states during measurement (Wigner, 1963), some go even further and propose a more active influence of the human mind on the probabilities of quantum measurement outcomes (e.g. Atmanspacher, Römer, & Walach, 2002; Penrose & Hameroff, 2011). This proposition was tested in micro-psychokinesis (micro-Pk) research were intentional observer effects on quantum random number generators (RNGs) were investigated. In the studies presented here we extended this line of research and tested the impact unconscious goals on micro-Pk. Our focus was cigarette addiction as an unconscious drive and hypothesized that regular cigarette smokers would influence the outcome of a quantum RNG that determined whether the participant was going to see a smoking-related or a neutral picture. Study 1 revealed strong evidence for micro-Pk (BF = 66.06) supporting the H1. As expected, no deviation from chance was found with non-smokers. In Study 2, a pre-registered highly powered replication attempt, failed to reproduce this result and showed strong evidence for H0 (BF = 11.07). When the data from both studies are combined a remarkable change in effect across time (resembling a combination of appearance followed by decline) can be seen only in the smoker’s subsample. Appearance-and-decline effects were absent in the non-smokers sample and in a simulation. Based on von Lucadou’s Model of Pragmatic Information we suggest that (micro-)Pk effects follow a systematic pattern comparable to a dampened harmonic oscillation. This concept may shed new light on past and future Pk research.
This protocol is a concrete implementation of the unified metrological framework Protocol 9.0 applied to the claimed phenomenon of micro‑psychokinesis (μ‑PK) — the alleged ability of consciousness to produce a statistically significant deviation of the output of a quantum random number generator (QRNG) from the theoretically expected binomial distribution. The protocol is mechanism‑neutral. Its goal is either to detect a reproducible deviation ΔX from the null model (fair coin p0 = 0.5) or to establish a quantitative upper bound on the possible effect under strictly controlled conditions. The document contains the full experimental architecture (target, dummy, trap), a procedure for demonstrating failure modes, requirements for the minimum detectable effect (MDE ≥ 5σ), triple blinding, multiverse analysis, and validity/exclusion criteria.