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Proceedings of SPIE, the International Society for Optical Engineering/Proceedings of SPIE

Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

Michail A. Zak, Ronald E. Meyers, Keith S. Deacon

Published Jul 13, 2000• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

DOI
10.1117/12.391958

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A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.
The paper extends the mathematical formalism of quantum physics to include economics. The novelty of the approach is based upon a human-factor-based behavioral model of an intelligent agent. The model is quantum inspired: it is represented by a modified Madelung equation in which the gradient of quantum potential is replaced by a specially chosen information force. It consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the agent, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge base and incorporating this knowledge in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. Due to feedback from mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: its trajectory splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with the probability prescribed by the mental dynamics. All of these departures actually extend and complement the classical methods making them especially successful in analysis of communications of agents represented by new mathematical formalism.
Humans do not always make the most rational decisions. As studies have shown, even when logic and reasoning point in one direction, sometimes humans “walk” to the opposite route, motivated by personal bias or simply wishful thinking. This paradoxical human behavior has resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. Scientists have shown that a quantum probability model can provide a simple explanation for human decision-making. In military, decision-making process is considered to be the most neuralgic one. With the recent interest in quantum computing and quantum information theory, there has been an effort to recast classical game theory using quantum probability amplitudes, and hence study the effect of quantum superposition, interference and entanglement on the agents’ optimal strategies. Apart from unsolved problems in quantum information theory, quantum game theory and decision –making, may be useful in studying quantum communication since that can be considered as a game where the objective is to maximize effective communication. This paper discusses the idea of using quantum theory to decision making. 1 HellemicArmy 14, Kanigos Str., Piraeus 18534, Greece.
The paper extends the mathematical formalism of quantum physics to include games of intelligent agents that communicate due to entanglement. The novelty of the approach is based upon a human factor-based behavioral model of an intelligent agent. The model is quantum inspired: it is represented by a modified Madelung equation in which the gradient of quantum potential is replaced by a specially chosen information force. It consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the agent, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge base and incorporating this knowledge in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. Due to feedback from mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: its trajectory splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with the probability prescribed by the mental dynamics; each agent is entangled (in a quantum way) to other agents and makes calculated predictions for future actions; human factor is associated with violation of the second law of thermodynamics: the system can move from disorder to order without external help, and that represents intrinsic intelligence. All of these departures actually extend and complement the classical methods making them especially successful in analysis of communications of agents represented by new mathematical formalism, and in particular, in agent-based economics with a human factor.
Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce's response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process' degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making.