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AIP conference proceedings

Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

Polina Khrennikova

Published Jan 1, 2012• 17 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

DOI
10.1063/1.4773122

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The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
The core assumptions of modern economic utility theories such as rationality have been placed under scrutiny by recent studies in decision theory and behavioural economics and fi?nance. The main questions that were explored in these studies could be expressed as follows: do people always make rational choices? Do they make use of the normative rules of traditional logic and probability when dealing with risk and uncertainty? Are there any alternative methods to capture choices and reasoning when individuals are faced with uncertainty and risk? In this thesis I will elaborate on an interdisciplinary application of so-called QL (quantum-like) models to decision-making problems in ?finance and other socio-economic contexts. The core inquiry of this work is related to experimental tests of decision making with the help of investment related questions. Calculus and logic borrowed from quantum physics will be used to develop probabilistic models for the formation and evolution of decisions in ?finance context with the potential to generalize to other social decision- making settings. The main fi?ndings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: individuals exhibit preference reversals and context-dependent behaviour in different informational contexts. In particular, in condition of risk individuals exhibit uncertainty aversion and thus aversion to participating in other investment task, violating the postulates of classical probability theory. The core principle of rational (consequential) behaviour conceived by Savage (1954) [207], that is the "Savage Sure Thing" principle, was shown to be violated. In mathematical language, this violation is equivalent to the violation of the "Law of total probability". Implying contextuality of human judgement, different events cannot be jointly evaluated in a single probability space. Moreover, additional experimental fi?ndings showed that participants exhibited reference dependence in their risk attitudes depending on the preceding gain respective loss. These fi?ndings were statistically signi?cant and a quantum model for accommodating the above effects of contextual behaviour is introduced. A geometric depiction of the experimental fi?ndings was proposed. A so-called `state reconstruction' procedure from statistical data was performed via the inverse Born's rule (1926) [47], allowing the construction of a complete representation of agents' resolution from indeterminacy.
The article presents a review of foreign scientific literature on the quantum-like approach to understanding the modeling of cognition and decision-making processes. It is shown that the current application of quantum physics approaches to consciousness, psychological approaches such as perception, cognition, emotions, consciousness and learning, involves the search for a single objective mathematical model of what underlies the experience of the brain. The use of quantum physics algorithms can help in understanding the mechanisms of brain malfunctions and memory impairments that are found in pathologies such as dementia caused by Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, etc. Quantum physics approaches are applicable to issues of modeling cognition and decision-making processes, as well as in cognitive research, information processing by the human brain, artificial intelligence development, psychology, social and political sciences. Application of the abstract mathematical principles of quantum theory can help in understanding human consciousness and behavior. Quantum probability theory is applied to modeling human behavior due to the prevalence of uncertainty in human interaction with the world. Quantum cognitive models are especially useful in research in such areas as errors in decision making, order effects of questions, conceptual combinations, accumulation of evidence, perception, etc. Of particular interest to researchers are issues of quantum-like modeling of cognition and decision-making processes, the apparatus of quantum information and probability theory, useful for such modeling, as well as the use of such apparatus in cognitive research, the development of artificial intelligence, psychology, social and political sciences.
We consider the following model of decision-making by cognitive systems. We present an algorithm -- quantum-like representation algorithm (QLRA) -- which provides a possibility to represent probabilistic data of any origin by complex probability amplitudes. Our conjecture is that cognitive systems developed the ability to use QLRA. They operate with complex probability amplitudes, mental wave functions. Since the mathematical formalism of QM describes as well (under some generalization) processing of such quantum-like (QL) mental states, the conventional quantum decision-making scheme can be used by the brain. We consider a modification of this scheme to describe decision-making in the presence of two ``incompatible'' mental variables. Such a QL decision-making can be used in situations like Prisoners Dilemma (PD) as well as others corresponding to so called disjunction effect in psychology and cognitive science.
Classical models of decision-making under uncertainty, grounded in expected utility theory and Bayesian probability, often fail to account for systematic cognitive anomalies such as preference reversals, order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent choices. Quantum cognition models offer a novel theoretical framework that applies the mathematical principles of quantum probability—such as superposition, interference, and non-commutativity—to cognitive processes without assuming physical quantum mechanisms in the brain. By representing cognitive states as probabilistic superpositions that collapse through decision “measurements,” these models provide parsimonious explanations for violations of classical rationality. This paper examines how quantum cognition frameworks capture contextual influence, belief updating, and interference effects in uncertain decision environments. Drawing on findings from cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, the study highlights the relevance of quantum cognition for applications in economic choice modeling, legal decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The analysis suggests that quantum probability offers a robust alternative to classical approaches when modeling human decision-making in complex, ambiguous, and context-sensitive situations.
One of the most complex systems is the human brain whose formalized functioning is characterized by decision theory. We present a "Quantum Decision Theory" of decision-making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to explain a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision-making of real human beings. The theory describes entangled decision-making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference of composite prospects. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage's sure-thing principle (disjunction effect) can be explained as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. We demonstrate that all known anomalies and paradoxes, documented in the context of classical decision theory, are reducible to just a few mathematical archetypes, all of which allow the finding of straightforward explanations in the frame of the developed quantum approach.
The aim of this review is to highlight the possibility of applying the mathematical formalism and methodology of quantum theory to model behavior of complex biosystems, from genomes and proteins to animals, humans, and ecological and social systems. Such models are known as quantum-like, and they should be distinguished from genuine quantum physical modeling of biological phenomena. One of the distinguishing features of quantum-like models is their applicability to macroscopic biosystems or, to be more precise, to information processing in them. Quantum-like modeling has its basis in quantum information theory, and it can be considered one of the fruits of the quantum information revolution. Since any isolated biosystem is dead, modeling of biological as well as mental processes should be based on the theory of open systems in its most general form-the theory of open quantum systems. In this review, we explain its applications to biology and cognition, especially theory of quantum instruments and the quantum master equation. We mention the possible interpretations of the basic entities of quantum-like models with special interest given to QBism, as it may be the most useful interpretation.