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The Quantum Theory in Decision Making

Dionysios P. Kalogeras

Published Jan 1, 2013• 1 citation
OpenAlex

Abstract

Humans do not always make the most rational decisions. As studies have shown, even when logic and reasoning point in one direction, sometimes humans “walk” to the opposite route, motivated by personal bias or simply wishful thinking. This paradoxical human behavior has resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. Scientists have shown that a quantum probability model can provide a simple explanation for human decision-making. In military, decision-making process is considered to be the most neuralgic one. With the recent interest in quantum computing and quantum information theory, there has been an effort to recast classical game theory using quantum probability amplitudes, and hence study the effect of quantum superposition, interference and entanglement on the agents’ optimal strategies. Apart from unsolved problems in quantum information theory, quantum game theory and decision –making, may be useful in studying quantum communication since that can be considered as a game where the objective is to maximize effective communication. This paper discusses the idea of using quantum theory to decision making. 1 HellemicArmy 14, Kanigos Str., Piraeus 18534, Greece.

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Humans do not always make the most rational decisions. As studies have shown, even when logic and reasoning point in one direction, sometimes humans “walk” to the opposite route, motivated by personal bias or simply wishful thinking. This paradoxical human behavior has resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. Scientists have shown that a quantum probability model can provide a simple explanation for human decision-making. In military, decision-making process is considered to be the most neuralgic one. With the recent interest in quantum computing and quantum information theory, there has been an effort to recast classical game theory using quantum probability amplitudes, and hence study the effect of quantum superposition, interference and entanglement on the agents’ optimal strategies. Apart from unsolved problems in quantum information theory, quantum game theory and decision –making, may be useful in studying quantum communication since that can be considered as a game where the objective is to maximize effective communication. This paper discusses the idea of using quantum theory to decision making. 1 HellemicArmy 14, Kanigos Str., Piraeus 18534, Greece.
Quantum interference effects play a fundamental role in social decision-making, offering a novel perspective beyond classical decision theories. This study explores the theoretical foundations of quantum decision-making, emphasizing the role of quantum probability in explaining cognitive biases, preference reversals, and decision anomalies. The research presents a quantum probability-based decision model and contrasts it with classical probability models. Through theoretical modeling and experimental design, we demonstrate how quantum interference alters decision probabilities and impacts group decision dynamics. The study further examines the applications of quantum decision theory in game theory, policy-making, financial markets, and artificial intelligence. Our findings suggest that quantum probability provides a more comprehensive and realistic framework for understanding human decision-making processes. Future research should focus on empirical validation, interdisciplinary integration, and the application of quantum computing to social decision modeling.
Quantum game theory (QGT) extends traditional game theory by using quantum mechanics to create new models for strategic decision-making. Traditional game theory provides effective tools for analyzing rational human interaction; yet it suffers from three main restrictions because it cannot properly handle uncertain situations, contradictory behavior, and complex relationships among agents. QGT addresses these challenges through its implementation of quantum phenomena, which enable strategic options that go beyond traditional mixed strategies. The extended system introduces fresh equilibrium solutions that allow easier resolution of standard problems. The chapter presents an organized structure to display QGT, which shows its value for strategic decision-making systems. The chapter shows fundamental concepts that link classical theories with quantum theories through its demonstration of how quantum strategies have developed from their original state to their present form, which expands traditional game models. The research investigates optimization methods, cybersecurity measures, economic systems, and artificial intelligence applications. The study identifies implementation obstacles and future research needs. The advanced QGT decision-making systems provide outstanding solutions that allow intelligent systems to interact with their environments and solve complex environmental problems.
Following the ideas of Bohr, Von Neumann, and Benioff, we formulate quantum decision theory (QDT) as the quantum-mechanical theory of measurement for probability operators. QDT captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions. It is based on the hypothesis that the thought processes of real human beings involved in the definition and analysis of alternative prospects and scenarios do not necessarily separate them according to the recipes of standard probability theory and of classical utility theory. Our QDT formalizes systematically a broader class of decision making processes in which prospects can interact, interfere and remain entangled. The mathematical QDT is developed so as to be applicable to real-life decision making processes. We demonstrate that all known anomalies and paradoxes documented in the context of classical utility theory are reducible to just a few mathematical archetypes, all of which finding straightforward explanations in the framework of QDT. Interference terms, which are essential for resolving the paradoxes, quantify the aversion of human beings to uncertainty and/or to perceived potential loss resulting from their decisions.
Of the three faculties of subjectivity, the empirical case for quantum cognition is the strongest. In the past decade a rapidly growing body of scholarship has emerged at the intersection of mathematical psychology and physics that not only models cognition in explicitly quantum terms, but has rigorously tested these models as well. While it remains to be seen how mainstream psychologists will respond, “quantum decision theory” has clearly come of age. Moreover, at the same time an almost completely independent literature has emerged on quantum game theory as well. This work is more in a purely formal vein and thus less well tested against real data, although its predictions about how people should behave in quantum games appear to conform to what experimental game theorists have found. I briefly take up quantum game theory at the end of this chapter, but my main focus will be on its decision-theoretic cousin. Quantum consciousness theory suggests that human beings are literally walking wave functions. Most quantum decision theorists would not go that far, and indeed – perhaps wary of controversy – they generally barely mention quantum consciousness, and then only to emphasize that they are making no claims about what is going on deep inside the brain (much less about consciousness), but are only interested in behavior. Instead, they have motivated their work in two other ways. First, they have highlighted the intuitive fit between quantum theory's indeterminism and the probabilistic character of human behavior. If we were founding the social sciences today and started – without metaphysical prejudice – by looking for useful models in physics, then quantum models would be a much more obvious import than classical ones. Second, quantum decision theorists have argued that their model can explain long-standing anomalies in human behavior under uncertainty. Beyond that they have remained agnostic about quantum consciousness, which makes quantum decision theory a form of what is called “weak” or “generalized” quantum theory, in which the formalism is detached from its physical basis and used simply as a tool to describe phenomena.
Two experimental tasks in psychology, the two-stage gambling game and the Prisoner's Dilemma game, show that people violate the sure thing principle of decision theory. These paradoxical findings have resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. A quantum probability model, based on a Hilbert space representation and Schrödinger's equation, provides a simple and elegant explanation for this behaviour. The quantum model is compared with an equivalent Markov model and it is shown that the latter is unable to account for violations of the sure thing principle. Accordingly, it is argued that quantum probability provides a better framework for modelling human decision-making.
One of the most complex systems is the human brain whose formalized functioning is characterized by decision theory. We present a "Quantum Decision Theory" of decision-making, based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to explain a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision-making of real human beings. The theory describes entangled decision-making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference of composite prospects. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage's sure-thing principle (disjunction effect) can be explained as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. We demonstrate that all known anomalies and paradoxes, documented in the context of classical decision theory, are reducible to just a few mathematical archetypes, all of which allow the finding of straightforward explanations in the frame of the developed quantum approach.