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arXiv:2609.17482

Predictive Structure Behind Rare Outcomes in Random Quantum Circuits

Myeongsu Kim, Travis Humble, Sabre Kais

quant-phSubmitted Sep 15, 2026• Announced Sep 16, 2026• 0 citations• Revised Oct 19, 2026 (v3)
v1 · Sep 15, 2026v2 · Sep 20, 2026v3 · Oct 19, 2026v4 · Nov 1, 2026
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Abstract

Local random quantum circuits selected for unusually large output peaks reveal intermediate-state structure that predicts new peak formation and guides circuit construction. In one-dimensional Haar-random brickwall circuits, the selected trajectories combine stronger pairwise correlations and probability redistribution with lower bipartite entanglement and output entropy. We test the predictive value of this structure by keeping each circuit's initial segment fixed and independently regenerating the remaining gates. Across the tested size-depth grid at n=8-14, peak-selected states have higher new-peak probability than normal/nonpeak controls, with an overall probability ratio of 3.23 at the primary depths. Within a separate unconditioned ensemble, a fixed structural score computed from the initial segment predicts new-peak probability and gives a 1.86-fold yield gain in a replay with equal numbers of remaining-circuit evaluations. Randomizing relative phases while preserving computational-basis probabilities strongly attenuates the selected-state advantage, demonstrating a functional contribution from relative-phase organization. Structural and phase-intervention tests extend to n=16. Structure-guided gate selection improves high-peak yield under common local refinement, while guidance using multiple intermediate observables improves new-peak probability over peak-only guidance in all 16 tested size-depth settings. Together, these results show how intermediate-state structure can predict and promote new peak formation under finite-depth local dynamics.

Comments
28 pages, 9 figures

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An algorithm is proposed for constructing quasi-random "peaked" quantum circuits, i.e., circuits whose final qubit state exhibits a high probability concentration on a specific computational basis state. These circuits consist of random gates arranged in a brick-wall architecture. While the multiqubit state in the middle of the circuit can exhibit significant entanglement, the final state is, with high probability, a predetermined pure bitstring. A technique is introduced to obscure the final bitstring in the structure of the quantum circuit. The algorithm allows precise control over the probability of the final peaked state. A modified version of the algorithm enables the construction of double- or multi-peaked quantum circuits. The matrix product state (MPS) method is evaluated for simulating such circuits; it performs effectively for shallow peaked circuits but offers no significant advantage for deeper ones.
Over a decade after its proposal, the idea of using quantum computers to sample hard distributions has remained a key path to demonstrating quantum advantage. Yet a severe drawback remains: verification seems to require classical computation exponential in the system size, nnn. As an attempt to overcome this difficulty, we propose a new candidate for quantum advantage experiments with otherwise random "peaked circuits", i.e., quantum circuits whose outputs have high concentrations on a computational basis state. Naturally, the heavy output string can be used for classical verification. In this work, we analytically and numerically study an explicit model of peaked circuits, in which τrτ_rτr​ layers of uniformly random gates are augmented by τpτ_pτp​ layers of gates that are optimized to maximize peakedness. We show that getting 1/poly(n)1/\text{poly}(n)1/poly(n) peakedness from such circuits requires τp=Ω((τr/n)0.19)τ_{p} = Ω((τ_r/n)^{0.19})τp​=Ω((τr​/n)0.19) with overwhelming probability. However, we also give numerical evidence that nontrivial peakedness is possible in this model -- decaying exponentially with the number of qubits, but more than can be explained by any approximation where the output of a random quantum circuit is treated as a Haar-random state. This suggests that these peaked circuits have the potential for future verifiable quantum advantage experiments. Our work raises numerous open questions about random peaked circuits, including how to generate them efficiently, and whether they can be distinguished from fully random circuits in classical polynomial time.
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Random quantum circuits have been extensively explored for quantum supremacy demonstrations [1]–[4]. However, verifying their output distributions remains challenging [2], [5], [6]. Here, we propose the infinite-temperature correlation function (ITCF) as a physically meaningful observable for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices one that can be extracted using engineered circuits rather than relying on fully random constructions. This is realized by leveraging peaked quantum states whose probability distributions are sharply peaked at specific outcomes due to constructive interference thus offering more efficient verifiability and stronger signal observability. Rather than using Haar-random states, which often yield vanishing signals through destructive interference, we construct purposefully biased quantum states using either Grover-based amplitude amplification or shallow structured circuits. These engineered states amplify contributions from relevant operator subspaces, enabling robust detection of non-zero ITCF values that would otherwise be suppressed under random-state sampling. Our results highlight a problem-specific state preparation framework that mitigates signal loss from random averaging and facilitates the detection of physically meaningful observables in NISQ devices. We also discuss future extensions to multiqubit observables, scrambling diagnostics, and variational circuit optimization, underscoring the broader potential of Peaked States for quantum simulation and verification.
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