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arXiv:2609.17482

Predictive Structure Behind Rare Outcomes in Random Quantum Circuits

Myeongsu Kim, Travis Humble, Sabre Kais

quant-phSubmitted Sep 15, 2026• Announced Sep 16, 2026• 0 citations
v1 · Sep 15, 2026v2 · Sep 20, 2026v3 · Oct 19, 2026v4 · Nov 1, 2026
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Abstract

Rare outputs of random quantum circuits are usually treated as terminal statistics. We ask whether they reveal intermediate organization that remains useful beyond the selecting future. Comparing unconditioned random-normal (RN) and peak-selected random-peaked (RP) circuits from the same local generator, we find stronger pairwise correlations and probability redistribution but reduced bipartite and output spreading in RP across n=8-16. Exact full-suffix decomposition reveals stronger peak-directed interference. The structural separation and fresh-future advantage persist across four nominal depths at n=8-14, with 2.01-7.15 fold RP enrichment in the depth extensions at fixed, independently calibrated thresholds. Within the unconditioned ensemble, a structural prefix score predicts fresh-event probability without using the evaluated circuits' terminal outcomes. Population-preserving phase scrambling identifies a functional contribution from relative-phase organization across the tested settings, including primary-depth held-out confirmation. RP trajectory-guided initialization improves high-peak yield over Haar initialization under common local refinement. Intermediate multivariate guidance also improves the fresh-continuation susceptibility of constructed states beyond peak-only guidance across the same size-depth grid. Rare outputs thus reveal intermediate physical organization that remains useful under new dynamics and can guide circuit construction.

Comments
25 pages, 9 figures

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Rare outputs of random quantum circuits are usually treated as terminal statistics. We ask whether they reveal intermediate organization that remains useful beyond the selecting future. Comparing unconditioned random-normal (RN) and peak-selected random-peaked (RP) circuits from the same local generator, we find stronger pairwise correlations and probability redistribution but reduced bipartite and output spreading in RP across n=8-16. Exact full-suffix decomposition reveals stronger peak-directed interference. The structural separation and fresh-future advantage persist across four nominal depths at n=8-14, with 2.01-7.15 fold RP enrichment in the depth extensions at fixed, independently calibrated thresholds. Within the unconditioned ensemble, a structural prefix score predicts fresh-event probability without using the evaluated circuits' terminal outcomes. Population-preserving phase scrambling identifies a functional contribution from relative-phase organization across the tested settings, including primary-depth held-out confirmation. RP trajectory-guided initialization improves high-peak yield over Haar initialization under common local refinement. Intermediate multivariate guidance also improves the fresh-continuation susceptibility of constructed states beyond peak-only guidance across the same size-depth grid. Rare outputs thus reveal intermediate physical organization that remains useful under new dynamics and can guide circuit construction.
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Random quantum circuits have been extensively explored for quantum supremacy demonstrations [1]–[4]. However, verifying their output distributions remains challenging [2], [5], [6]. Here, we propose the infinite-temperature correlation function (ITCF) as a physically meaningful observable for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices one that can be extracted using engineered circuits rather than relying on fully random constructions. This is realized by leveraging peaked quantum states whose probability distributions are sharply peaked at specific outcomes due to constructive interference thus offering more efficient verifiability and stronger signal observability. Rather than using Haar-random states, which often yield vanishing signals through destructive interference, we construct purposefully biased quantum states using either Grover-based amplitude amplification or shallow structured circuits. These engineered states amplify contributions from relevant operator subspaces, enabling robust detection of non-zero ITCF values that would otherwise be suppressed under random-state sampling. Our results highlight a problem-specific state preparation framework that mitigates signal loss from random averaging and facilitates the detection of physically meaningful observables in NISQ devices. We also discuss future extensions to multiqubit observables, scrambling diagnostics, and variational circuit optimization, underscoring the broader potential of Peaked States for quantum simulation and verification.
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