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arXiv:2512.01026

Asymptotic inference in a stationary quantum time series

Michael Nussbaum, Arleta Szkoła

Published Nov 30, 2025• 0 citations
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Abstract

We consider a statistical model of a n-mode quantum Gaussian state which is shift invariant and also gauge invariant. Such models can be considered analogs of classical Gaussian stationary time series, parametrized by their spectral density. Defining an appropriate quantum spectral density as the parameter, we establish that the quantum Gaussian time series model is asymptotically equivalent to a classical nonlinear regression model given as a collection of independent geometric random variables. The asymptotic equivalence is established in the sense of the quantum Le Cam distance between statistical models (experiments). The geometric regression model has a further classical approximation as a certain Gaussian white noise model with a transformed quantum spectral density as signal. In this sense, the result is a quantum analog of the asymptotic equivalence of classical spectral density estimation and Gaussian white noise, which is known for Gaussian stationary time series. In a forthcoming version of this preprint, we will also identify a quantum analog of the periodogram and provide optimal parametric and nonparametric estimates of the quantum spectral density.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2512.01026

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We consider a statistical model of a n-mode quantum Gaussian state which is shift invariant and also gauge invariant. Such models can be considered analogs of classical Gaussian stationary time series, parametrized by their spectral density. Defining an appropriate quantum spectral density as the parameter, we establish that the quantum Gaussian time series model is asymptotically equivalent to a classical nonlinear regression model given as a collection of independent geometric random variables. The asymptotic equivalence is established in the sense of the quantum Le Cam distance between statistical models (experiments). The geometric regression model has a further classical approximation as a certain Gaussian white noise model with a transformed quantum spectral density as signal. In this sense, the result is a quantum analog of the asymptotic equivalence of classical spectral density estimation and Gaussian white noise, which is known for Gaussian stationary time series. In a forthcoming version of this preprint, we will also identify a quantum analog of the periodogram and provide optimal parametric and nonparametric estimates of the quantum spectral density.
Quantum technology is increasingly relying on specialised statistical inference methods for analysing quantum measurement data. This motivates the development of “quantum statistics”, a field that is shaping up at the overlap of quantum physics and “classical” statistics. One of the less investigated topics to date is that of statistical inference for infinite dimensional quantum systems, which can be seen as quantum counterpart of nonparametric statistics. In this paper, we analyse the asymptotic theory of quantum statistical models consisting of ensembles of quantum systems which are identically prepared in a pure state. In the limit of large ensembles, we establish the local asymptotic equivalence (LAE) of this i.i.d. model to a quantum Gaussian white noise model. We use the LAE result in order to establish minimax rates for the estimation of pure states belonging to Hermite–Sobolev classes of wave functions. Moreover, for quadratic functional estimation of the same states we note an elbow effect in the rates, whereas for testing a pure state a sharp parametric rate is attained over the nonparametric Hermite–Sobolev class.
In classical statistics, a well known paradigm consists in establishing asymptotic equivalence between an experiment of i.i.d. observations and a Gaussian shift experiment, with the aim of obtaining optimal estimators in the former complicated model from the latter simpler model. In particular, a statistical experiment consisting of n i.i.d. observations from d-dimensional multinomial distributions can be well approximated by an experiment consisting of d−1 dimensional Gaussian distributions. In a quantum version of the result, it has been shown that a collection of n qudits (d-dimensional quantum states) of full rank can be well approximated by a quantum system containing a classical part, which is a d−1 dimensional Gaussian distribution, and a quantum part containing an ensemble of d(d−1)∕2 shifted thermal states. In this paper, we obtain a generalization of this result when the qudits are not of full rank. We show that when the rank of the qudits is r, then the limiting experiment consists of an r−1 dimensional Gaussian distribution and an ensemble of both shifted pure and shifted thermal states. For estimation purposes, we establish an asymptotic minimax result in the limiting Gaussian model. Analogous results are then obtained for estimation of a low rank qudit from an ensemble of identically prepared, independent quantum systems, using the local asymptotic equivalence result. We also consider the problem of estimation of a linear functional of the quantum state. We construct an estimator for the functional, analyze the risk and use quantum local asymptotic equivalence to show that our estimator is also optimal in the minimax sense.
In this paper we investigate the asymptotic statistical theory of irreducible quantum Markov chains, focusing on identifiability properties and asymptotic convergence of associated quantum statistical models. We show that the space of identifiable parameters for the stationary output is a stratified space called an orbifold, which is obtained as the quotient of the manifold of irreducible dynamics by a compact group of state preserving symmetries. We analyse the orbifold's geometric properties, the connection between periodicity and strata, and provide orbifold charts as the starting point for the local asymptotic theory. The quantum Fisher information rate of the system and output state is expressed in terms of a canonical inner product on the identifiable tangent space. We then show that the joint system and output model satisfies quantum local asymptotic normality while the stationary output model converges to a product between a quantum Gaussian shift model and a mixture of quantum Gaussian shift models, reflecting the underlying periodicity. These strong convergence results provide the basis for constructing asymptotically optimal estimators of dynamical parameters. We provide an in-depth analysis of the model with smallest dimensions, consisting of two-dimensional system and environment units.
In classical statistics, Pinsker’s theorem provides an exact asymptotic minimax bound in nonparametric estimation, improving upon optimal rates of convergence results. We obtain a quantum version of the theorem by establishing asymptotic minimax results for estimation of the displacement vector in a quantum Gaussian white noise model, given by a sequence of shifted vacuum states. Analogous results are then obtained for estimation of a general pure state from an ensemble of identically prepared, independent quantum systems, using the recently established local asymptotic equivalence to the quantum Gaussian white noise model. Optimality holds with respect to the most fundamental distance measure for quantum states, that is, trace norm distance, and in a true quantum sense, allowing for all possible measurements. Adaptive estimators are also obtained for the above cases. As an application, we obtain asymptotic minimax adaptive estimators for Wigner functions of pure states.
Matrix completion and quantum tomography are two unrelated research areas with great current interest in many modern scientiflc studies. This paper investigates the statistical relationship between trace regression in matrix completion and quantum state tomography in quantum physics and quantum information science. As quantum state tomography and trace regression share the common goal of recovering an unknown matrix, it is nature to put them in the Le Cam paradigm for statistical comparison. Regarding the two types of matrix inference problems as two statistical experiments, we establish their asymptotic equivalence in terms of deflciency distance. The equivalence study motivates us to introduce a new trace regression model. The asymptotic equivalence provides sound statistical foundation for applying matrix completion techniques to quantum state tomography. We investigate the asymptotic equivalence for sparse density matrices and low rank density matrices and demonstrate that sparsity and low rank are not necessarily helpful for achieving the asymptotic equivalence of quantum state tomography and trace regression. In particular we show that popular Pauli measurements are bad for establishing the asymptotic equivalence for sparse density matrices and low rank density matrices.