We discuss different formal frameworks for the description of generalized probabilities in statistical theories. We analyze the particular cases of probabilities appearing in classical and quantum mechanics and the approach to generalized probabilities based on convex sets. We argue for considering quantum probabilities as the natural probabilistic assignments for rational agents dealing with contextual probabilistic models. In this way, the formal structure of quantum probabilities as a non-Boolean probabilistic calculus is endowed with a natural interpretation.
We discuss different formal frameworks for the description of generalized probabilities in statistical theories. We analyze the particular cases of probabilities appearing in classical and quantum mechanics and the approach to generalized probabilities based on convex sets. We argue for considering quantum probabilities as the natural probabilistic assignments for rational agents dealing with contextual probabilistic models. In this way, the formal structure of quantum probabilities as a non-Boolean probabilistic calculus is endowed with a natural interpretation.
In this chapter, we consider the way quantum theory represents deterministic, statistical, and probabilistic aspects of Nature. After a discussion in Section 3.1 of uncertainty in general, we discuss in Sections 3.2-3.4 several formal notions of classical probability, their relation to the probability concept used in applied statistics, and their dependence on the description used. Section 3.5 briefly discusses various examples, where probabilistic features emerge from fully deterministic situations-a theme to be taken up in much more detail in Chapter 11. Section 3.6 then shows how the statistical aspects of the quantum formalism naturally follow from the weak law of large numbers. The notions of c-probability in the classical case and of q-probability in the quantum case are formally defined in Section 3.7. Historically, the concept of classical probability (including its use in stochastic processes) was given an undisputed formal mathematical foundation in 1933 in terms of the measure-theoretic setting of Kolmogorov [164]. Apart from this traditional axiomatic foundation of classical probability theory, there is a less well-known equivalent axiomatic treatment by Whittle [302] in terms of expectations. Here probabilities appear as the expectations of statements, {0, 1}-valued random variables. von Plato [240] discusses the history of the concept of probability. Krüger et al. [169] discuss the history of probability in the various fields of application. Sklar [275] discusses the philosophical problems of the probability concept, with an emphasis on statistical mechanics.
Classical probability theory, as axiomatized in 1933 by Andrey Kolmogorov, has provided a useful and almost universally accepted theory for describing and quantifying uncertainty in scientific applications outside quantum mechanics. Recently, cognitive psychologists and mathematical economists have provided examples where classical probability theory appears inadequate but the probability theory underlying quantum mechanics appears effective. Formally, quantum probability theory is a generalization of classical probability. This article explores relationships between generalized probability theories, in particular quantum-like probability theories and those that do not have full complementation operators (e.g. event spaces based on intuitionistic logic), and discusses how these generalizations bear on important issues in the foundations of probability and the development of non-classical probability theories for the behavioural sciences.
Interpretational paradoxes of quantum mechanics may be associated with the application of the structure of classical probability theory to systems whose probabilistic organization is fundamentally contextual. In this work, we propose an outline of an alternative probability theory in which the primary object is not an elementary outcome but a contextual whole—a class of alternatives defined by a common structural property. In this approach, probability is organized on two levels. The first level describes the probabilities of contextual wholes, while the second level describes the conditional probabilities of alternatives within those wholes. Individual alternatives do not possess autonomous probabilities outside their context. Their probabilities arise only as contextual projections of a more fundamental probabilistic structure. Within this model, quantum mechanics appears as a special case of a more general theory in which contextual wholes are described by superpositions of probability amplitudes. Classical probability theory emerges as a limiting case in which all contexts are mutually compatible and can be combined into a single global description. The proposed framework provides a possible conceptual foundation for understanding quantum probability, contextuality, interference, and hybrid probability distributions within a unified structure.
We give an introduction to research associated with the generalised probabilistic theories framework, also known as the convex framework. States are real vectors representing lists of probabilities of measurement outcomes. Convex combinations of the vectors represent probabilistic combinations of different state preparations. Transformations are real matrices. Measurement outcomes are represented by functionals of the states, inner products of the state with a real vector, whose values are the probability of the measurement outcome in question. The framework generalises quantum theory. We describe the operational meaning of the framework, and how the concepts can be defined in terms of cones of states and measurement outcome vectors. We describe how the classical and quantum probability theories are represented in the framework. We describe Bell non-locality and the theory with super-quantum non-locality known as box world. We discuss generalised Hamiltonian mechanics in the discrete case and in continuous phase space, including the role of negativity of the phase space density in contextuality and tunnelling.
It is a scientific truism nowadays that quantum mechanical predictions are of statistical or rather of probabilistic nature: a quantum theory assigns a probability distribution to each measurable quantity (observable) of a physical system prepared according to a given preparation prescription (state). Such sets of probability distributions represent the most general quantitative predictions of physical theories. The aim of this study is to determine all theoretical frameworks which yield such a kind of output taking the probabilistic nature of quantitative physical predictions as initial hypothesis. Astonishingly, this project succeeds with a minimal number of additional assumptions, which arise quite naturally in the course of the analysis, and which essentially amount to regularity conditions. The result is that there exist only two classes of physical theories providing quantitative probabilistic predictions: classical theories where observables are represented by real functions over a phase space and states are represented by probability measures upon the phase space, and quantum theories where observables are represented by selfadjoint operators acting on a complex Hilbert space and states are represented by state operators. On empirical grounds, classical theories cannot provide the all-encompassing, fundamental frame for the mathematical description of physical systems. Quantum theories remain, and there is no more complete formal frame for quantitative physical theories. As an additional result, it is shown that there exist physical systems which possess a quantum mechanical but no classical description; a prominent example is the spin system of two spin-1/2 particles. The classical hidden variables model, which J. Bell relates to this system in order to prove his theorem, cannot be a true description of it because no such classical model exists, and Bell's theorem loses its foundation.
Most scholars maintain that quantum mechanics (QM) is a contextual theory and that quantum probability does not allow for an epistemic (ignorance) interpretation. By inquiring possible connections between contextuality and non-classical probabilities we show that a class TμMP of theories can be selected in which probabilities are introduced as classical averages of Kolmogorovian probabilities over sets of (microscopic) contexts, which endows them with an epistemic interpretation. The conditions characterizing TμMP are compatible with classical mechanics (CM), statistical mechanics (SM), and QM, hence we assume that these theories belong to TμMP. In the case of CM and SM, this assumption is irrelevant, as all of the notions introduced in them as members of TμMP reduce to standard notions. In the case of QM, it leads to interpret quantum probability as a derived notion in a Kolmogorovian framework, explains why it is non-Kolmogorovian, and provides it with an epistemic interpretation. These results were anticipated in a previous paper, but they are obtained here in a general framework without referring to individual objects, which shows that they hold, even if only a minimal (statistical) interpretation of QM is adopted in order to avoid the problems following from the standard quantum theory of measurement.