We discuss some issues about probability in quantum mechanics, with particular emphasis on the GHZ theorem. We propose the usage of nonmonotonic upper probabilities as a tool to derive consistent joint upper probabilities for systems where only contextual hidden variables are possible.
The topic of probability in quantum mechanics is rather vast. In this chapter it is discussed from the perspective of whether and in what sense quantum mechanics requires a generalization of the usual (Kolmogorovian) concept of probability. The focus is on the case of finite-dimensional quantum mechanics (which is analogous to that of discrete probability spaces), partly for simplicity and partly for ease of generalization. While the main emphasis is on formal aspects of quantum probability (in particular the non-existence of joint distributions for incompatible observables), the discussion relates also to notorious issues in the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Indeed, whether quantum probability can or cannot be ultimately reduced to classical probability connects rather nicely to the question of 'hidden variables' in quantum mechanics.
The topic of probabilty in quantum mechanics is rather vast, and in this article, we shall choose to discuss it from the perspective of whether and in what sense quantum mechanics requires a generalisation of the usual (Kolmogorovian) concept of probability. We shall focus on the case of finite-dimensional quantum mechanics (which is analogous to that of discrete probability spaces), partly for simplicity and partly for ease of generalisation. While we shall largely focus on formal aspects of quantum probability (in particular the non-existence of joint distributions for incompatible observables), our discussion will relate also to notorious issues in the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Indeed, whether quantum probability can or cannot be ultimately reduced to classical probability connects rather nicely to the question of 'hidden variables' in quantum mechanics. An abridged version of this essay will appear in A. Hajek and C. Hitchcock (eds.), 'The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy', Oxford University Press. The present version includes in particular many more footnotes and references and the Appendix with the proofs of the Lemma and Proposition of Section 5.
Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.