The forecasting of financial time series has gained more significance in decision making within a dynamic economic setting. Over the last few years, there has been a push in exploring both classical machine learning methods and novel quantum machine learning models with a view to enhance predictive accuracy. This paper suggests a quantum-classical regression framework developed that combines the feature selection in the form of a Random Forest in a hybrid approach, dimensionality reduction in the mode of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and predicting in the form of a Variational Quantum Circuit (VQC). It is tested in various financial indicators, as BSE ESG, Carbon Exchange, Energy, Green Exchange, Oil and Gas and Power, with the help of RMSE and R 2 as the measure of performance. As experimental findings indicate, the classical algorithms like Random Forest and k-Nearest Neighbors always have the best accuracy and stability compared to quantum and hybrid ones. Quantum models are unstable, in contrast to Quantum kNN which is fairly stable. The hybrid model performs moderately with consistent error values but fairly lower explanatory power with significant results mostly on the BSE ESG data. In general, the paper has pointed out that classical approaches are still best in structured financial prediction tasks and hybrid quantum-classical models are potentially effective, but not yet competent. The results give valuable information on the existing limitation and future of the quantum machine learning to financial forecasting applications.
The forecasting of financial time series has gained more significance in decision making within a dynamic economic setting. Over the last few years, there has been a push in exploring both classical machine learning methods and novel quantum machine learning models with a view to enhance predictive accuracy. This paper suggests a quantum-classical regression framework developed that combines the feature selection in the form of a Random Forest in a hybrid approach, dimensionality reduction in the mode of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and predicting in the form of a Variational Quantum Circuit (VQC). It is tested in various financial indicators, as BSE ESG, Carbon Exchange, Energy, Green Exchange, Oil and Gas and Power, with the help of RMSE and R 2 as the measure of performance. As experimental findings indicate, the classical algorithms like Random Forest and k-Nearest Neighbors always have the best accuracy and stability compared to quantum and hybrid ones. Quantum models are unstable, in contrast to Quantum kNN which is fairly stable. The hybrid model performs moderately with consistent error values but fairly lower explanatory power with significant results mostly on the BSE ESG data. In general, the paper has pointed out that classical approaches are still best in structured financial prediction tasks and hybrid quantum-classical models are potentially effective, but not yet competent. The results give valuable information on the existing limitation and future of the quantum machine learning to financial forecasting applications.
High-Frequency Financial Forecasting is important in algorithmic trading as it helps make decisions based on high-frequency data in milliseconds. This challenge has been found to be unsolvable using conventional machine learning approaches, such as classical Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Random Forest (RF), and deep learning models, which were not able to capture the nonlinear and high-dimensional patterns embedded in the high-frequency datasets, leading to poor prediction performance. This paper proposes a Supervised Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM) model, which is tailored for the high-frequency financial forecasting task. The QSVM can effectively encode the market information and enhance the predictability while maintaining the computational efficiency through quantum feature mapping and high-dimensional Hilbert space. This process includes encoding of tick-level market microstructure data, stock and futures prices, and technical indicators into quantum states and subsequent training using a quantum-classical hybrid optimization loop. Classical SVM, Random Forest, LSTM, and hybrid QML are used as the benchmarks for the proposed QSVM using forecasting accuracy, RMSE, MAPE, computational latency, and Sharpe ratio. The results obtained from the experiment show that the QSVM has better accuracy (91.2%), RMSE (0.018), and latency (22 ms) as well. Hence, the QSVM shows better performance when compared to other methods and is capable of modeling the markets that have a fast change in dynamics. High-dimensional quantum kernel plays a part in enhancing the ability to separate non-linearities. Therefore, the QSVM could be a potential solution to apply in algorithmic trading. The limitations are hardware constraints of NISQ and restrictions on the size of the dataset. Future directions of research will include the scalability of the model and the use of ensemble approaches.
The increasing complexity and volume of financial transactions pose significant challenges to traditional fraud detection systems. This technical report investigates and compares the efficacy of classical, quantum, and quantum-hybrid machine learning models for the binary classification of fraudulent financial activities. As of our methodology, first, we develop a comprehensive behavioural feature engineering framework to transform raw transactional data into a rich, descriptive feature set. Second, we implement and evaluate a range of models on the IBM Anti-Money Laundering (AML) dataset. The classical baseline models include Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost. These are compared against three hybrid classic quantum algorithms architectures: a Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM), a Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC), and a Hybrid Quantum Neural Network (HQNN). Furthermore, we propose Fraud Detection for Quantum Computing (FD4QC), a practical, API-driven system architecture designed for real-world deployment, featuring a classical-first, quantum-enhanced philosophy with robust fallback mechanisms. Our results demonstrate that classical tree-based models, particularly \textit{Random Forest}, significantly outperform the quantum counterparts in the current setup, achieving high accuracy (97.34%) and F-measure (86.95%). Among the quantum models, \textbf{QSVM} shows the most promise, delivering high precision (77.15%) and a low false-positive rate (1.36%), albeit with lower recall and significant computational overhead. This report provides a benchmark for a real-world financial application, highlights the current limitations of quantum machine learning in this domain, and outlines promising directions for future research.
In this paper, we present a reproducible benchmarking framework that systematically compares QML models with architecture-matched classical counterparts across three financial tasks: (i) directional return prediction on U.S. and Turkish equities, (ii) live-trading simulation with Quantum LSTMs versus classical LSTMs on the S\&P 500, and (iii) realized volatility forecasting using Quantum Support Vector Regression. By standardizing data splits, features, and evaluation metrics, our study provides a fair assessment of when current-generation QML models can match or exceed classical methods. Our results reveal that quantum approaches show performance gains when data structure and circuit design are well aligned. In directional classification, hybrid quantum neural networks surpass the parameter-matched ANN by \textbf{+3.8 AUC} and \textbf{+3.4 accuracy points} on \texttt{AAPL} stock and by \textbf{+4.9 AUC} and \textbf{+3.6 accuracy points} on Turkish stock \texttt{KCHOL}. In live trading, the QLSTM achieves higher risk-adjusted returns in \textbf{two of four} S\&P~500 regimes. For volatility forecasting, an angle-encoded QSVR attains the \textbf{lowest QLIKE} on \texttt{KCHOL} and remains within $\sim$0.02-0.04 QLIKE of the best classical kernels on \texttt{S\&P~500} and \texttt{AAPL}. Our benchmarking framework clearly identifies the scenarios where current QML architectures offer tangible improvements and where established classical methods continue to dominate.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Financial market prediction is a challenging application of machine learning, where even small improvements in directional accuracy can yield substantial value. Most models struggle to exceed 55--57\% accuracy due to high noise, non-stationarity, and market efficiency. We introduce a hybrid ensemble framework combining quantum sentiment analysis, Decision Transformer architecture, and strategic model selection, achieving 60.14\% directional accuracy on S\&P 500 prediction, a 3.10\% improvement over individual models. Our framework addresses three limitations of prior approaches. First, architecture diversity dominates dataset diversity: combining different learning algorithms (LSTM, Decision Transformer, XGBoost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression) on the same data outperforms training identical architectures on multiple datasets (60.14\% vs.\ 52.80\%), confirmed by correlation analysis (r>0.6 among same-architecture models). Second, a 4-qubit variational quantum circuit enhances sentiment analysis, providing +0.8\% to +1.5\% gains per model. Third, smart filtering excludes weak predictors (accuracy <52%), improving ensemble performance (Top-7 models: 60.14\% vs.\ all 35 models: 51.2\%). We evaluate on 2020--2023 market data across seven instruments, covering diverse regimes including the COVID-19 crash and inflation-driven correction. McNemar's test confirms statistical significance (p<0.05). Preliminary backtesting with confidence-based filtering (6+ model consensus) yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.2 versus buy-and-hold's 0.8, demonstrating practical trading potential.
Quantum machine learning (QML) is a cross-disciplinary subject made up of two of the most exciting research areas: quantum computing and classical machine learning (ML), with ML and artificial intelligence (AI) being projected as the first fields that will be impacted by the rise of quantum machines. Quantum computers are being used today in drug discovery, material & molecular modelling and finance. In this work, we explore emerging research areas in the application of hybrid classical quantum machine learning (QML) in finance. We focus on hybrid classical-quantum models that have gained significant interest in the financial world for various applications. We utilise a real-world cryptocurrency dataset to train a quantum generative adversarial networks (qGAN), and implement the real-life NVIDIA stock price data on quantum LSTM (QLSTM), comparing its performance with classical Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. Additionally, we investigate the application of quantum circuit Born machine (QCBM) using a toy dataset for applications in finance. For the qGAN, we define quantum circuits for generators and showcase the potential for future quantum advantage in finance through QML, possibly in combination with QLSTM and QCBM. Our findings suggest that, while training classical data is more efficient on LSTM, the test predictions of QLSTM is slightly superior to its classical counterpart making it a promising candidate for financial forecasting and analysis for timeseries type data.