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International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Supervised Quantum Support Vector Algorithms for High Frequency Financial Forecasting

Dr.E Mohanraj, K Anitha, Dr.S. Karunakaran, s Suganya, Shinki Katyayani Pandey

Published May 24, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

High-Frequency Financial Forecasting is important in algorithmic trading as it helps make decisions based on high-frequency data in milliseconds. This challenge has been found to be unsolvable using conventional machine learning approaches, such as classical Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Random Forest (RF), and deep learning models, which were not able to capture the nonlinear and high-dimensional patterns embedded in the high-frequency datasets, leading to poor prediction performance. This paper proposes a Supervised Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM) model, which is tailored for the high-frequency financial forecasting task. The QSVM can effectively encode the market information and enhance the predictability while maintaining the computational efficiency through quantum feature mapping and high-dimensional Hilbert space. This process includes encoding of tick-level market microstructure data, stock and futures prices, and technical indicators into quantum states and subsequent training using a quantum-classical hybrid optimization loop. Classical SVM, Random Forest, LSTM, and hybrid QML are used as the benchmarks for the proposed QSVM using forecasting accuracy, RMSE, MAPE, computational latency, and Sharpe ratio. The results obtained from the experiment show that the QSVM has better accuracy (91.2%), RMSE (0.018), and latency (22 ms) as well. Hence, the QSVM shows better performance when compared to other methods and is capable of modeling the markets that have a fast change in dynamics. High-dimensional quantum kernel plays a part in enhancing the ability to separate non-linearities. Therefore, the QSVM could be a potential solution to apply in algorithmic trading. The limitations are hardware constraints of NISQ and restrictions on the size of the dataset. Future directions of research will include the scalability of the model and the use of ensemble approaches.

DOI
10.51483/ijaiml.6.2s.2026.533-537

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High-Frequency Financial Forecasting is important in algorithmic trading as it helps make decisions based on high-frequency data in milliseconds. This challenge has been found to be unsolvable using conventional machine learning approaches, such as classical Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Random Forest (RF), and deep learning models, which were not able to capture the nonlinear and high-dimensional patterns embedded in the high-frequency datasets, leading to poor prediction performance. This paper proposes a Supervised Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM) model, which is tailored for the high-frequency financial forecasting task. The QSVM can effectively encode the market information and enhance the predictability while maintaining the computational efficiency through quantum feature mapping and high-dimensional Hilbert space. This process includes encoding of tick-level market microstructure data, stock and futures prices, and technical indicators into quantum states and subsequent training using a quantum-classical hybrid optimization loop. Classical SVM, Random Forest, LSTM, and hybrid QML are used as the benchmarks for the proposed QSVM using forecasting accuracy, RMSE, MAPE, computational latency, and Sharpe ratio. The results obtained from the experiment show that the QSVM has better accuracy (91.2%), RMSE (0.018), and latency (22 ms) as well. Hence, the QSVM shows better performance when compared to other methods and is capable of modeling the markets that have a fast change in dynamics. High-dimensional quantum kernel plays a part in enhancing the ability to separate non-linearities. Therefore, the QSVM could be a potential solution to apply in algorithmic trading. The limitations are hardware constraints of NISQ and restrictions on the size of the dataset. Future directions of research will include the scalability of the model and the use of ensemble approaches.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Financial datasets possess high dimensionality and non-linear structure that challenge classical models in providing necessary forecastings. This work propose a hybrid Quantum-Enhanced Support Vector Machine (QSVM) that encodes technical indicators via a fixed ZZFeatureMap and computes a quantum kernel utilising a trainable Real Amplitude circuit and a classical SVM. The study adopts rigorous statistical validation with 10 independent runs, stratified with 5-fold CV, mean with 95% confidence intervals and uses McNemar’s test for paired significance. Realistic resource analysis and optional NISQ noise settings are included with qubits, circuit depth, two-qubit gates and shots. On a combined financial dataset, including S&P 500 stocks, cryptocurrencies, forex pairs and FRED economic indicators, QSVM achieves modest but statistically significant gains over tuned classical baselines, with advantages widening at high dimensionality. Results clarify simulation overheads and expected noise-induced degradation, supporting a cautious and reproducible assessment of QSVM for financial forecasting.
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) prediction of stock values is on the verge of changing the financial market and particularly enhancing HFT techniques. This is an attempt at quantum computing-machine learning hybrid aimed at enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of trading decisions. The historical machine learning-based stock price prediction models are incapable of processing large volumes of data, executing trades faster, and modeling complex market dynamics in real-time. The challenges result in ineffective trading decisions and trade lags at high frequencies. These problems are solved by HFT Optimization and Quantum Machine Learning. Because quantum computing capability is processing large amounts of data simultaneously, the proposed architecture enhances prediction accuracy and speed while reducing latency of decision-making. Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs) and quantum-optimized algorithms are useful to boost the modeling of market behavior. This technology will enhance stock price forecasting and optimization of trading strategies, which increases profit and minimize risk. Initial evidence indicates that quantum-based HFT systems are faster in execution speed and market flexibility than conventional techniques, which is essential to the future of automated trading.
Abstract Support vector machines (SVMs) are widely used for classification, but become computationally expensive as datasets grow and data become high-dimensional or nonlinearly separable. Quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) enhance the traditional SVMs by replacing conventional feature mappings with quantum-implemented embeddings that project data into high-dimensional Hilbert spaces, potentially improving expressive power and efficiency. However, training QSVMs on current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices remains challenging, as constructing the quantum kernel matrix requires repeated circuit executions and scales quadratically with dataset size. We propose NQ-SVM , a hybrid quantum-classical method that incorporates the Nystr\"om approximation to enhance the scalability of QSVMs. By selecting a small set of landmark points, the Nystr\"om method yields a low-rank kernel approximation, reducing complexity from (O(n2))(O(n^2))(O(n2)) to (O(nm))(O(nm))(O(nm)), while preserving the quantum advantages in handling high-dimensional, non-linear data. Extensive simulations demonstrate that NQ-SVM achieves comparable classification accuracy to classical SVMs and full QSVMs, while substantially reducing training time and kernel evaluation costs. These results underscore the potential of NQ-SVM as a scalable and practical hybrid framework for near-term quantum machine learning (QML).
This article proposes a quantum inspired Support Vector Machine (QISVM) framework that employs simulated quantum circuit features to address these challenges. To encapsulate such features, we use a four-qubit encoding protocol using X-axis rotation and entanglement created from Controlled-NOT (CNOT). Quantum inspired elements from simulated circuit output include entropy and probability of the most likely measurement state. These features, including time-based indicators and quantum inspired representations, are scaled using MinMax normalization to ensure consistent feature ranges and numerical stability during SVM training. The forecasting engine works based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) and an RBF kernel (fine-tuned with GridSearchCV). Moreover, we propose a dual learning architecture implementing SVR and SVC for regression-based forecasting and movement direction judgment. Quantum circuit simulations on batch level done using Qiskit AerSimulator and joblib-based caching which are scalable and reproducible but without quantum hardware. To prove this approach, we back-test it using Apple stock price financial time series datasets against both Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Quantum LSTM (QLSTM) models. QISVM has superior forecasting performance as well as directional forecast capability with less training time and computational resources than hybrid, deep learning and others. Herein, the proposed framework provides feature-level diagnostic interpretability through its explicitly defined quantum-inspired features and permutation-based feature analysis.
Stock market forecasting remains one of the most computationally demanding tasks in financial engineering, requiring sophisticated models capable of processing nonlinear patterns, high-frequency volatility, and large volumes of time-series data. Recent advancements in quantum computing offer the potential to surpass classical machine learning (ML) by leveraging principles such as superposition and entanglement to accelerate learning and optimization. This paper conducts a comprehensive comparison between quantum machine learning (QML) models and classical deep learning architectures for stock price prediction, emphasizing the technological improvements and optimization of computational methods. Our analysis integrates insights from prior studies, including the application of quantum-enhanced Gramian Angular Fields with CNNs [2], shallow parameterized quantum circuits for market indicators [4], and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms tailored to finance [1]. Experimental evaluation (using IBM Qiskit's quantum simulators and real hardware) demonstrates competitive performance of quantum neural networks (QNNs) against state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures [3]. Across AAPL/MSFT and short horizons, compact QNNs match strong LSTM baselines while using an order of magnitude fewer parameters, and—critically—transfer from calibrated simulators to IBM hardware with marginal degradation after mitigation. This device-aware training/evaluation loop exemplifies a deployable path for financial QML under realistic noise and resource constraints and motivates standardized, time-series-aware testing for the community. Results highlight the engineering value of quantum acceleration in feature encoding, the research novelty of hybrid ensemble strategies, and the future scope of benchmarking across leading quantum computing machines such as IBM, Google Sycamore, Rigetti, IonQ, and Xanadu.