The reported violations of Bell inequalities are routinely read as an experimental refutation of local realism. This preprint asks how firmly the record supports that reading. We catalogue the classical routes by which a strictly local apparatus can report |S| > 2 - from outcome-dependent loss and coincidence-window selection (demonstrated in hardware) to synchronisation, electronics-level click shifts and analysis-parameter selection - and show that below the Eberhard efficiency the exact quantum correlation curve certifies nothing, being reproduced exactly by a known local detection model. We then define the first family-level synchronisation audit (plateau membership, bias index, sub-bound fraction), validate it on synthetic data with known ground truth, and execute it under preregistered protocols on three public archives. The raw Innsbruck record passes: across the full longdist series, every standard-configuration violation is a property of the raw data, not of the calibration. On the Delft event-ready data, a 50,000-member heralding-acceptance family answers the standing postselection critique: the violation is generic, not an acceptance choice. On the NIST 2015 record, an outsider reconstruction of the certified pipeline recovers the Bell geometry and gate optima but stalls at undisclosed cleaning parameters - a documented limit of third-party reproducibility. The programme distils into seven cleanliness criteria (C1–C7) for any dataset and eight provenance requirements (M1–M8) for future experiments. All figures and numbers are reproducible from the supplementary scripts (deterministic, fixed seeds, minutes on a laptop); raw data are fetched from the official public archives.
The reported violations of Bell inequalities are routinely read as an experimental refutation of local realism. This preprint asks how firmly the record supports that reading. We catalogue the classical routes by which a strictly local apparatus can report |S| > 2 - from outcome-dependent loss and coincidence-window selection (demonstrated in hardware) to synchronisation, electronics-level click shifts and analysis-parameter selection - and show that below the Eberhard efficiency the exact quantum correlation curve certifies nothing, being reproduced exactly by a known local detection model. We then define the first family-level synchronisation audit (plateau membership, bias index, sub-bound fraction), validate it on synthetic data with known ground truth, and execute it under preregistered protocols on three public archives. The raw Innsbruck record passes: across the full longdist series, every standard-configuration violation is a property of the raw data, not of the calibration. On the Delft event-ready data, a 50,000-member heralding-acceptance family answers the standing postselection critique: the violation is generic, not an acceptance choice. On the NIST 2015 record, an outsider reconstruction of the certified pipeline recovers the Bell geometry and gate optima but stalls at undisclosed cleaning parameters - a documented limit of third-party reproducibility. The programme distils into seven cleanliness criteria (C1–C7) for any dataset and eight provenance requirements (M1–M8) for future experiments. All figures and numbers are reproducible from the supplementary scripts (deterministic, fixed seeds, minutes on a laptop); raw data are fetched from the official public archives.
Public photon Bell-test records retain timing structure that is lost in aggregate statistics. This paper tests whether that structure survives quantitative response controls in three experimental archives. In the Weihs data, a rectangular contrast of four channel-pair timing centroids tests whether accepted signal delays can be written as a sum of local channel contributions. For longdist1, the contrast is 1.405 ns and 1.515 ns in disjoint chronological halves, with pointwise 95% block intervals [1.018, 1.791] ns and [1.193, 1.836] ns. Both survive the enumerated centroid scan under the specified 20-block inference at an 8-ns coincidence half-width and remain positive under clock, background, and gate checks. A flexible empirical timing model, however, transfers between chronological halves after clock-drift calibration. In the Christensen archive, the suppressed setting-pair channel is strongly enriched in coincidence tails, but a cross-fitted signal–accidental model predicts 714.6 of 730 counts beyond 300 ns; the residual is 15.4 counts with interval [−54.6, 85.3]. NIST timing-offset records exhibit a terminal-mask excess accompanied by an Alice-side singles-rate change and compatible with a separately calibrated local-setting mixture. The evidence separates reproducible structure, failure of an additive accepted-centroid model, and effects accommodated by explicit response controls. Finite coincidence selection and known switching-related populations prevent the centroid contrast alone from establishing intrinsic polarization–time coupling or a failure of quantum theory. Statistical scope. The analyses are exploratory. Coarser clustering weakens scan-adjusted significance: with ten blocks per half, the highlighted Weihs contrast has adjusted approximate p values of 0.087 and 0.014. The residual is specific to the accepted-centroid model and does not establish a discrepancy beyond all independently calibrated temporal-response models. Files and reproducibility. Bell_manuscript.pdf is the self-contained, 13-page preprint dated 30 October 2026. Bell_Reanalysis_Source.zip contains the editable LaTeX manuscript, numerical figure code, reconstruction and analysis scripts, derived records, source manifests and hashes, full comparison tables, calibration and sensitivity results, and reproduction instructions. The NIST analysis uses 60 prescribed samples of 500,000 trials, rather than complete runs. The full upstream Christensen archive and Weihs time-tag files are retrieved by the supplied fetchers and are not bundled. A clean internal rerun reproduced the checked numerical outputs exactly; external independent reproduction is not claimed. Publication status and assistance. This research preprint has not been peer reviewed. AI tools assisted programming, analysis, and manuscript preparation; responsibility for the work remains with the author. License scope. The manuscript and original figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. Original analysis code is licensed under MIT. Third-party source data and derived excerpts retain applicable source terms and attribution; this deposit does not relicense upstream material.
This version reports a preregistered cross-platform calibration of a proposed Bell-functional drift signature on six official NIST loophole-free photonic runs. Under the frozen primary analysis, one run-level slope was positive and five were negative; the median slope was -2.5571 × 10^-6 and the exact one-sided positive-direction Wilcoxon p-value was 0.96875. The preregistered result is therefore fail. The result rejects the narrow prediction that the proposed positive A-coordinate drift transports across platforms under the specified mapping. It does not test the original Bell violation, refute quantum mechanics, establish a universal negative drift, or support a gravity, extra-dimensional, signaling, consciousness-based, or cosmological mechanism. The archive provides the English report, frozen preregistration chain, analysis code and tests, derived block tables, run-level and aggregate results, figures, provenance records, and release checksums. Raw NIST HDF5 objects are not redistributed; official source locations and local integrity identifiers are documented.
This paper synthesizes two published audit lines into a single reproducible framework for Bell and GHZ interpretation under analysis-rule sensitivity. Using public records and artifact-linked evidence, we show that Bell/CHSH on the same NIST event stream shifts from S_strict=2.336276 to S_standard=2.839387 (Delta=+0.503111) under protocol change, while GHZ search under the current audited pipeline remains far from F=4 (best fine-stage F=0.085396). We formalize a ledger-style audit protocol that treats pairing windows, denominator policy, post-selection, and uncertainty as first-class reported variables. We further introduce a singles-aware diagnostics layer (C_norm = coincidences / sqrt(singles_A * singles_B)) as a testable bridge for normalization-path analysis, while explicitly avoiding ontology-level promotion from current evidence. The contribution is a publication-ready, boundary-aware audit standard with claim-to-artifact traceability across both lines. Related records: Bell DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19763028 ; GHZ DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19763473 ; Code repository: https://github.com/tomnattle/chain-explosion-model
Archive Notice (Deprecated): This record is kept for archival purposes and is no longer the current version. Please use the latest Bell Audit v5 record: https://zenodo.org/records/19904639 (DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19904639). 留档提示(已过期): 本记录仅用于历史留档,已非当前版本。请优先访问最新版 Bell Audit v5:https://zenodo.org/records/19904639(DOI:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19904639)。 [EN] This paper presents a "Denominator Audit" of Bell/CHSH violations using NIST experimental data. Historically, violations of S > 2.0 are cited as proof of non-locality. Our audit reveals that these results are not intrinsic to the physical system but are "manufactured" through the selective manipulation of coincidence windows (Accounting Fraud). On the same NIST complete-blind stream, we compare a strict pairing tolerance (0.0) versus the Round-1 standard tolerance (15.0) in NIST grid-index units on the exported CSV t axis (not calibrated seconds in this deposit). The frozen binary-CHSH snapshot gives S_strict = 2.336276 vs S_standard = 2.839387 (Δ = +0.503111). A bootstrap CI for the standard branch includes 2\sqrt{2} (artifacts/reports/chsh_bootstrap_ci_standard15.json, ci_contains_tsirelson: true); we therefore discuss protocol sensitivity, not Tsirelson violation. Separately, the “30 cm truth” is a laboratory heuristic (about 1 ns ↔ ~30 cm in vacuum); it motivates coincidence bookkeeping sensitivity and must not be read as “parameter 15.0 equals 15 ns” here. Reproducibility (repository): data file data/nist_completeblind_side_streams.csv; run from repo root python scripts/explore/chsh_denominator_audit.py (writes artifacts/bell_window_scan_v1/). [中] 在同一组 NIST complete-blind 事件流上,我们在导出 CSV 的 t 网格上对比严苛配对容差(0.0)与第一轮标准容差(15.0),单位为 NIST 网格指数(本归档不将其标定为秒)。冻结的二元 CHSH 快照为 S_strict = 2.336276 与 S_standard = 2.839387(Δ = +0.503111)。标准分支的 bootstrap 置信区间覆盖 2\sqrt{2}(artifacts/reports/chsh_bootstrap_ci_standard15.json,ci_contains_tsirelson: true);因此本文强调协议敏感性,而非 Tsirelson 违背。另:“30 厘米的真相”是实验室启发(真空中约 1 纳秒 ↔ 约 30 厘米),用于提示符合会计的敏感性,不应被读作“参数 15.0 等于 15 纳秒”。 可复现(配套仓库): 数据 data/nist_completeblind_side_streams.csv;在仓库根目录运行 python scripts/explore/chsh_denominator_audit.py(输出写入 artifacts/bell_window_scan_v1/)。
Whether financial data require a quantum-probabilistic description has been debated since Khrennikov proposed Bell-type and total-probability tests for markets, yet the field still lacks an instrument whose verdicts can be trusted in either direction. We first show that Bell-type and Leggett–Garg inequalities computed on passively recorded price data cannot establish non-classicality by violating a classical bound: by Fine's theorem, jointly recorded variables always admit a classical joint distribution, so apparent violations arise only from combining different conditioning contexts, which can test specific classical models but not the need for a quantum description. We then construct an alternative instrument within this boundary: a family of quantum-like models (a two-dimensional collapse chain and general hidden quantum Markov models of dimension two and three) is compared out of sample with a deliberately strong classical class (Moore and Mealy hidden Markov models with up to six states, including the classical limits of the quantum models, and an observation-driven GARCH-type model). A quantum member counts as evidence only if it beats every classical candidate. Before reading real data, we calibrate the instrument in both directions on synthetic data with known ground truth. On one year of 15-minute data it detects quantum structures matched to its members down to about 0.001 log-likelihood units per bar, while producing no false detections in 20 classical simulations read under the same rule, nor in 60 earlier ones under a less strict rule; the real-data conclusions survive a larger classical class and a doubled optimisation budget. Calibration also exposes five ways in which quantum advantage can be manufactured from classical data. Applied to seasonally adjusted gold and silver data at two time scales, the instrument detects no quantum-like advantage; every 95% upper bound is negative. A pre-registered out-of-sample test on 2026 gold data was likewise not supported. The contribution is a tested ruler with stated resolution, not a claim about the ontology of markets. Code, frozen measurement protocol and all results: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23449779 (version 1.1). Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23400902; results record: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23401850. This paper revises the author's earlier claim that the interference statistic κ indicates non-classicality in gold (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19456823).
Bell-test data are typically used to certify nonlocal correlations, while quantum metrology is concerned with the sensitivity of measurement statistics to unknown parameters. Here we connect these tasks at the level of experimentally accessible Bell statistics. Using standard moment-based Fisher-information inequalities, we derive lower bounds on the classical Fisher information directly from Bell scores and their parameter dependence, without requiring full state tomography. For CHSH measurements we establish a hierarchy between the information contained in the full outcome record, the set of individual correlators, and the compressed Bell parameter, thereby quantifying the metrological cost of data compression. In polarization-phase sensing, this hierarchy reveals a Bell-metrology tradeoff: the point of maximal CHSH violation need not maximize, and can even suppress, the Fisher information carried by the Bell score itself. We further derive finite-sample lower-confidence bounds from coincidence counts and analyze the effects of biased marginals, accidental coincidences, visibility loss, and multipair emission. The framework provides a practical route for extracting metrological guarantees from Bell-type experiments using only standard correlation measurements.