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The Cost Frontier of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computing: Capital Intensity, Technological Expectations, and Security Investment

Craig S Wright

Published Jan 1, 2026• 0 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.6748058

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Quantum computing and quantum communications are exciting new frontiers in computing and communications. Indeed, the massive investments made by the governments of the US, China, and EU in these new technologies are not a secret and are based on the expected potential of these technologies to revolutionize communications, computing, and security. In addition to several field trials and hero experiments, a number of companies such as Google and IBM are actively working in these areas and some have already reported impressive demonstrations in the past few years. While there is some skepticism about whether quantum cryptography will eventually replace classical cryptography, the advent of quantum computing could necessitate the use of quantum cryptography as the ultimate frontier of secure communications. This is because, with the amazing speeds demonstrated with quantum computers, breaking cryptographic keys might no longer be a daunting task in the next decade or so. Hence, quantum cryptography as the ultimate frontier in secure communications might not be such a far-fetched idea. It is well known that Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle is essentially a "negative result" in Physics and Quantum Mechanics. It turns out that Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, one of the most interesting results in Quantum Mechanics, could be the theoretical basis and the main scientific principle behind the ultimate frontier in quantum cryptography or secure communications in conjunction with Quantum Entanglement.

arXiv:2003.07907•Mar 17, 2020•31 citations
Quantum computing and quantum communications are exciting new frontiers in computing and communications. Indeed, the massive investments made by the governments of the US, China, and EU in these new technologies are not a secret and are based on the expected potential of these technologies to revolutionize communications, computing, and security. In addition to several field trials and hero experiments, a number of companies such as Google and IBM are actively working in these areas and some have already reported impressive demonstrations in the past few years. While there is some skepticism about whether quantum cryptography will eventually replace classical cryptography, the advent of quantum computing could necessitate the use of quantum cryptography as the ultimate frontier of secure communications. This is because, with the amazing speeds demonstrated with quantum computers, breaking cryptographic keys might no longer be a daunting task in the next decade or so. Hence, quantum cryptography as the ultimate frontier in secure communications might not be such a far-fetched idea. It is well known that Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle is essentially a "negative result" in Physics and Quantum Mechanics. It turns out that Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, one of the most interesting results in Quantum Mechanics, could be the theoretical basis and the main scientific principle behind the ultimate frontier in quantum cryptography or secure communications in conjunction with Quantum Entanglement.