遅延選択と確率的遡及因果 : 確率はどの段階で崩壊するのか
Yutaka Shinba
Abstract
When we use Bayes -Laplace theorem for the retrospective situation, by its nature, determining the probability of hypothesis by the observed data, with the propensity interpretation of probability, we encounter some difficulty called Humphreys' Paradox that shows the incommens teness between collapsed value 1 for the past event and Baysian value of probability There is another Paradox called Newcomb's problem, which concerns backward causation and enigma for probability 1.We discuss retrospective causality and usage of the su1juncfive mood with the past perfect tense of propensity considering these problems.Wheeler's delayed choice experiment by gravitation lens in the universe will show us some suggest on.We must self-examine the tense of subjective probability and the meaning of causality Then we could progress into the hard problem of integration between objective and subjective nature of probabffity as well as into another hard problem of relation between classical and quantum probability 1. 確率の収縮と遡及因果 初期Keues の論珂鈎靭ミやde FinettiとRamseyの主観角鞠ミなど の,確率を信念の度合いととる確率の主観自嫡覇そでは,確率の 値1と 0 は糧I リな意味を持っている.