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Quantum Bayes' Rule and Petz Transpose Map from the Minimum Change Principle

Bai, Ge, Francesco Buscemi, Valerio Scarani

Published Aug 28, 2025• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

Bayes’ rule, which is routinely used to update beliefs based on new evidence, can be derived from a principle of minimum change. This principle states that updated beliefs must be consistent with new data, while deviating minimally from the prior belief. Here, we introduce a quantum analog of the minimum change principle and use it to derive a quantum Bayes’ rule by minimizing the change between two quantum input-output processes, not just their marginals. This is analogous to the classical case, where Bayes’ rule is obtained by minimizing several distances between the joint input-output distributions. When the change maximizes the fidelity, the quantum minimum change principle has a unique solution, and the resulting quantum Bayes’ rule recovers the Petz transpose map in many cases.

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Bayes’ rule, which is routinely used to update beliefs based on new evidence, can be derived from a principle of minimum change. This principle states that updated beliefs must be consistent with new data, while deviating minimally from the prior belief. Here, we introduce a quantum analog of the minimum change principle and use it to derive a quantum Bayes’ rule by minimizing the change between two quantum input-output processes, not just their marginals. This is analogous to the classical case, where Bayes’ rule is obtained by minimizing several distances between the joint input-output distributions. When the change maximizes the fidelity, the quantum minimum change principle has a unique solution, and the resulting quantum Bayes’ rule recovers the Petz transpose map in many cases.
Bayes' rule is central to classical statistical inference: given a prior and a stochastic model, it determines the corresponding retrodictive conditional probabilities. In quantum theory, however, the question of whether an equally general rule of retrodiction exists and, if so, whether it is uniquely determined remains nontrivial. Here we prove that a retrodiction assignment defined for all priors and channels, which takes each predicted output state back to its prior, must coincide with the Petz transpose map if it is involutive, respects sequential and parallel composition, and agrees with unitary inversion. The theorem holds for channels between finite-dimensional full matrix algebras, with the input and output spaces restricted to the supports of the corresponding reference states. In particular, affinity under probabilistic mixtures and the characteristic square-root dependence on the reference states follow from these requirements rather than being postulated. Without involutivity, the remaining requirements characterize a family of doubly rotated Petz maps. Our result thus explains why the Petz transpose map arises in seemingly different areas of quantum theory: it is the unique quantum analogue of Bayes' rule compatible with these consistency requirements.
Bayes' rule, which is routinely used to update beliefs based on new evidence, can be derived from a principle of minimum change. This principle states that updated beliefs must be consistent with new data, while deviating minimally from the prior belief. Here, we introduce a quantum analog of the minimum change principle and use it to derive a quantum Bayes' rule by minimizing the change between two quantum input-output processes, not just their marginals. This is analogous to the classical case, where Bayes' rule is obtained by minimizing several distances between the joint input-output distributions. When the change maximizes the fidelity, the quantum minimum change principle has a unique solution, and the resulting quantum Bayes' rule recovers the Petz transpose map in many cases.
Bayes' rule is widely regarded as the canonical prescription for belief updating. We show, however, that one can arbitrarily preserve pre-specified beliefs while appearing to perform Bayesian updates via "prior hacking": engineering a reference prior distribution such that, for a fixed channel and evidence, the update matches a chosen target distribution. We prove that this is generically possible in both classical and quantum settings whenever Bayesian inversions are well-defined (with the Petz recovery map as the quantum analogue to Bayes' rule), and provide constructive algorithms for doing so. We further establish a duality between prior hacking and Schrödinger bridge problems (a key object in statistical physics with applications in generative modelling), yielding in the quantum setting a unique, inference-consistent selection among candidate bridges. This formally establishes the Bayes-like updating that Schrödinger bridges are performing with respect to the process as opposed to the reference prior, both in classical and quantum settings.
The Petz map has been established as a quantum version of the Bayes' rule. It unifies the conceptual belief update rule of a quantum state observed after a forward quantum process, and the operational reverse process that recovers the final state to match the updated belief, effectively counteracting the forward process. Here, we study a higher-order generalization of the quantum Bayes' rule by considering a quantum process undergoing a quantum supermap. For a few families of initial beliefs, we show that a similar unification is possible -- the rules updating the beliefs about quantum channels can be implemented via a "reverse" quantum supermap, termed the retrodiction supermap. The potential applications of retrodiction supermap are demonstrated with examples of improved error correction in quantum cloud computing. Analytical solutions are provided for these families, while a recipe for arbitrary initial beliefs remains an open question.
The minimum change principle provides an information-theoretic characterization of the Bayes reversal channel in classical probability theory and has recently been proposed as a framework for extending Bayes' rule to quantum information theory. Using quantum relative entropy, we investigate a minimum change principle for the setting of quantum statistical inference. Specifically, we consider a forward process based on a classical-to-quantum preparation channel and a reverse process based on a quantum-to-classical measurement channel. We establish a closed-form characterization of measurements that are optimal for this principle, and this optimal measurement can be found via a dual formulation involving a single unconstrained Hermitian variable. This perspective allows us to recover some notable measurements within the same framework, including pretty good measurements and Fermi-Dirac thermal measurements, and we use it to discover a novel family that we call softmin thermal measurements. We further show that softmin thermal measurements arise as optimal solutions to entropy-regularized semidefinite optimization problems, demonstrating that they play a role for measurements analogous to that of thermal states in statistical mechanics. Finally, we prove an additivity property for the relative-entropy minimum change principle and investigate the performance of Fermi-Dirac thermal measurements for quantum hypothesis testing.
Bayes’ rule connects forward and reverse processes in classical probability theory, and its quantum analogue has been discussed in terms of the Petz (transpose) map. For quantum dynamics governed by the Lindblad equation, the corresponding Petz map can also be written in Lindblad form. In classical stochastic systems, the analogue of the Lindblad equation is the Fokker–Planck equation, and applying Bayes’ rule to it yields the reverse diffusion equation underlying modern diffusion-based generative models. It is known that a semiclassical approximation of the Lindblad equation yields the Fokker–Planck equation for the Wigner function, which is a quasiprobability distribution defined on phase space as the Wigner transform of the density operator. Here we demonstrate that applying the same approximation to the Lindblad equation associated with the Petz map produces an equation that coincides with that obtained from the Fokker–Planck equation via Bayes’ rule. This finding establishes a direct correspondence between the Petz map and Bayes’ rule, unifying quantum reversibility with classical reverse diffusion.