This registration freezes the preregistration document and the exact reference implementation (code, configs, and SHA256 manifest) for a single scarce “heavy” run of the CNC fork experiment in the T=2 binary-clock setting. The goal is to maximize the chance of a conclusive decision either way while extracting high-value diagnostics from the same dataset. Execution: Planned to be performed by an external hardware operator with IBM Quantum access. At the time of registration, Morgan Cameron has offered to execute the run, subject to availability. If executed by another operator, the executor identity and run artefacts DOI will be recorded in the post run dataset deposit. The preregistered protocol, code, and decision rule are independent of executor identity. Protocol, analysis, and report: Dale James Raymond. The authoritative analysis plan is CNC_T2_Fork_Heavy_Prereg_v2.pdf. The exact runnable artefacts are: cnc_t2_qiskit_harness_v3.py cnc_t2_runner_v3.py cnc_t2_config_heavy_v3.json (intended run) cnc_t2_config_lean_v3.json (sanity/layout scout only) RUNBOOK_T2_FORK_HEAVY_V3.md Integrity: SHA256SUMS.txt contains hashes for all files in this registration.
This registration freezes the preregistration document and the exact reference implementation (code, configs, and SHA256 manifest) for a single scarce “heavy” run of the CNC fork experiment in the T=2 binary-clock setting. The goal is to maximize the chance of a conclusive decision either way while extracting high-value diagnostics from the same dataset. Execution: Planned to be performed by an external hardware operator with IBM Quantum access. At the time of registration, Morgan Cameron has offered to execute the run, subject to availability. If executed by another operator, the executor identity and run artefacts DOI will be recorded in the post run dataset deposit. The preregistered protocol, code, and decision rule are independent of executor identity. Protocol, analysis, and report: Dale James Raymond. The authoritative analysis plan is CNC_T2_Fork_Heavy_Prereg_v2.pdf. The exact runnable artefacts are: cnc_t2_qiskit_harness_v3.py cnc_t2_runner_v3.py cnc_t2_config_heavy_v3.json (intended run) cnc_t2_config_lean_v3.json (sanity/layout scout only) RUNBOOK_T2_FORK_HEAVY_V3.md Integrity: SHA256SUMS.txt contains hashes for all files in this registration.
This report records and interprets the second real-device execution of the CNC fork experiment in the certifiable T = 2 “binary-clock” design (runner v3), including a software-forensics correction: an obsolete analysis JSON incorrectly reported ν = 1.0 even though all 2-bit clock patterns are legal by construction in T = 2. It also specifies a final replication run (“Test 3”) intended to be maximally robust against the dominant remaining failure mode (near-threshold readout invasiveness on ibm_fez). A conclusive outcome of Test 3 is meaningful regardless of direction, because (as preregistered) the runner only emits a conclusive label after certifying overlap and bounding nuisance effects (mismatch and readout invasiveness). Run metadata (from locked runner output): backend: ibm_fez output created (UTC): 2026-01-10T19:03:16.074947+00:00 IBM Runtime job id: d5ha332gim5s73ahnueg physical layout (C1,C2,S): [1, 2, 3] protocol blocks: ε ∈ {0.40, 0.20} (primary block ε = 0.40) Qiskit versions (recorded by harness): qiskit 2.2.3, qiskit-ibm-runtime 0.43.1 Key certified outputs (primary block, ε = 0.40): D̄ = 0.381793 ν = 0.016503 (≤ ν_max = 0.020) ε_inv = 0.047647 (≤ ε_inv,max = 0.050) δ′ = 0.313209 decision (locked runner): reject hard CNC The Test 3 OSF preregistration is complete and time‑stamped, but remains embargoed until execution; the public link will be added here immediately after the embargo is lifted. Raw run artefacts and outputs to be archived as a separate Zenodo Dataset record by the hardware executor (Morgan Cameron). This report is a forensic note and replication/protocol document.
This report records and interprets the first real-device execution of the preregistered CNC T=3 two-clock fork experiment (runner v7) and specifies a certifiable follow-up protocol in the T=2 binary-clock setting. First, we note a certified overlap set I_cert where the clocks are demonstrably aligned well enough to talk about a common tick. Second, the runner certifies a lower bound delta' on the standard-QM disagreement that should be present in that overlap set. At that point, the question is not philosophical. It is a specific experimental question: does the observed disagreement survive after the non-invasive correction, or does it collapse toward zero? Run metadata (from locked runner output): run_id: cnc_t3_20260105T133840Z backend: ibm_fez UTC timestamp: 2026-01-05T13:40:11Z key outputs: D_bar = 0.213982, nu = 0.162114, epsilon_inv = 0.109279 decision: inconclusive (fails nu and epsilon_inv gates) Raw run artefacts and outputs are archived by Morgan Cameron on Zenodo: DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18177156 This report is a forensic note and planning document.
START HERE (read order / canonical artefacts): 1) Front Door notes (falsifiers & theorem/lemma map): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18075645 2) Fork paper (Hard CNC + certified overlap + T=3 fork): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18075546 3) Gravity paper (PAW / BR‑PAW + anomaly witness): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18075607 4) Runner bundle (prereg mechanics + 30‑sec demo): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18075677 Integrity rule (PAW/BR‑PAW): A null PAW result (no observed loop defect) does NOT, by itself, upper‑bound the worst‑case anomaly norm ||A||∞. PAW is soundness‑only in this direction; null‑result upper bounds require explicitly justified restricted norms (e.g., BR‑PAW with a physically motivated support/ensemble/code restriction) as stated in preregistered assumptions and budgets. Reference implementation for the CNC T=3 locked fork preregistration and the PAW/BR‑PAW inference pipeline. What it does: - Accepts preregistered inputs (including either externally supplied ε upper bound or tomography sufficient statistics + shot counts). - Produces preregistered bounds in two modes: (i) Bernstein/empirical‑Bernstein tightener; (ii) confidence‑region + SDP option (with preregistered solver tolerances and deterministic fallback). Included: - CNC_T3_Prereg_v7_bundle.zip - CNC_Release_Manifest_sha256_v2.txt Quick demo: - The bundle contains a one‑screen DEMO.md and a demo_simulation.py that generates synthetic data and runs the pipeline. Expected qualitative outcomes: signal run should be conclusive and reject Hard CNC; the two “bad” inputs should be inconclusive.
Fresh IBM Fez platform-lock pre-registration for executing the (Z_2)^3 prediction under the Stage 1c topological gate (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20404635). Locks: backend ibm_fez, qubits (15, 2, 23), calibration snapshot of 2026-05-27T02:18:29Z (SHA-256 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d), analysis script SHA-256 69c5e040c96f8b0f3fd50bc5014a63b4d461129d2e2affb0297f54887d871534, execution parameters (16,000 shots per circuit, 36 circuits total, bootstrap seed 20260526), and outcome reporting commitment.The Stage 1c gate authority (R_gap = (τ - σ_2) / std(σ_2^bootstrap) ≥ 3.0 with m̂_0 = 1) replaces Stage 1b §6.2's union-bound mundane gate. All other Stage 1b provisions (predictions 7/8 vs 8/9, operational f̂ definition, statistical-power requirement, Bayes-factor decision rule) remain in force.This Stage 2c is distinct from Stage 2 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360347) which locked qubits (15, 25, 56) against a 2026-05-23 calibration epoch and yielded the INDETERMINATE Stage 3 outcome (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20360386) under the old gate. The present Stage 2c lock targets a fresh calibration epoch and a freshly-quality-ranked qubit triple, and the certified execution under this lock will produce a Stage 3c result-of-execution report.Files in this deposit:uct_prediction_2_pregist_stage2c_fez.md — platform pre-registration document (SHA-256: f37062bc98e9429ffe6e92fea135ad6ff729a56c00606337747872d0a4b00dc9, 10320 bytes)ibm_fez_cal_snapshot_2026-05-26.json — locked Fez calibration snapshot (SHA-256: 3f69b12d793b7c0cfc1f7cb343b3a0b8c40f04ae3a6239f7e3edd48192dadd1d, 19485 bytes)Calibration validity window: Fez job to be submitted within 24 hours of snapshot time (by 2026-05-28T02:18:29Z). Beyond that window this Stage 2c is invalidated and a fresh Stage 2 must be deposited.Lock chain:Stage 1: 10.5281/zenodo.20360004Stage 1b: 10.5281/zenodo.20360259Stage 1c: 10.5281/zenodo.20404635 (gate authority)Stage 2: 10.5281/zenodo.20360347 (historical — different qubits and cal epoch)Stage 3: 10.5281/zenodo.20360386 (INDETERMINATE under old gate — preserved as historical record)
Version 2: pre-registration addendum for Phase D Outcome of the registered gate (G0) The G0 gate failed for every dataset, window family and null. No twin built from independent error mechanisms with circuit-local supports reproduces the bulk of the window-count distributions in the public data from Google Willow, Google Sycamore or Rigetti. For larger codes the twin cannot even be simulated. As the protocol requires, hypotheses H1–H3 are therefore not tested. This version adds pre-registration addendum 1. It fixes the analyses run instead, before either touches the test halves: • Model-free certificate (T3), on the test halves. It covers every registered configuration that has a circuit (the Google archives and Rigetti D6e). Windows are whole-patch windows of 1 and of 5 rounds, separated by one unused round, and the disjointness of their fault-location sets is checked from each circuit. Each stratum (archive, code family, code distance, window family) gets a premise curve ε_lo(k) on the grid k = c·j, j = 1–16, with Bonferroni correction at family-wise α = 0.05.• Threshold values for the certificate. ε* = 7.4 × 10⁻⁴ (Fowler, PRL 109, 180502, 2012) is the primary value; 2.73 × 10⁻⁵ (Aliferis, Gottesman and Preskill, QIC 6, 97, 2006) is a sensitivity check. Certificates against ε* are computed for surface-code strata only. Repetition-code, colour-code and stability strata get premise curves only.• Bursts. The primary analysis uses all windows; a secondary one excludes the windows flagged by the frozen burst classifier. B1/B2 event rates are reported descriptively.• Cat-qubit case study (exploratory). The model-based premise meter is applied to the AWS cat-qubit (D4) distance-3 configurations whose twin was simulable in G0. It reports R(k) intervals and k_cert, with the H1 reading (consistent if R_hi ≤ 3 for all k ≤ k_cert). It is labelled exploratory because D4's own G0 verdict is a fail. Status of the data when version 2 was created G0, which uses only the bulk bins, has run on the test halves. Its stored histograms include tail bins, but no tail statistic has been computed or examined. Both new analyses were dry-run on fit halves as pipeline checks. One choice was made after that dry run, and it is recorded in the addendum: ε* certificates were limited to surface-code strata, and strata were split by code family. The dry run had shown repetition-code and stability strata crossing ε* at k = c, i.e. at their base error rate, where Fowler's surface-code theorem does not apply. The model-based certification horizon is not computed, because it needs a twin tail. Files added in version 2 • phaseD_addendum.json: the machine-readable addendum. SHA-256: a458bcb40aa474d94a882a563a38a1a152d7bfb4404df9299f99fb020ab78834• ADDENDUM.md: the readable version of the addendum.• qpremise_code_phaseD_ade59b0.zip: the code that will run. The addendum's code_sha256 (794122ae1557c009664127e1c2e6b109781d5a71efcc566bc637b991c0403ab6) can be recomputed from it as the SHA-256 over the files matching qpremise/**/*.py, phaseD/scripts/*.py and phaseC/scripts/run_g0.py, taken in path order: each file's relative path, then its bytes with LF line endings.• SHA256SUMS_addendum.txt: checksums of the three files above. The version 1 files are unchanged. The original registration text follows. ──────────────────────────── Version 1 registration (2026-10-01) What this registers The analysis protocol of the premise meter. It tests whether public quantum-error-correction syndrome data agree with an independent-noise "twin" fitted to the same data. It also measures how far each dataset can certify the local-stochastic premise of the threshold theorem. Every analysis choice is fixed in frozen_protocol.json:• configuration eligibility, and the pre-registered subset in g0_selection.json;• the interleaved fit/test split;• the window families;• twin construction: candidate mechanisms from each circuit, an exact parity-moment fit, and a signed quasi-probability simulation with local weights;• the G0 gate decision rule;• the burst classifiers B1 and B2 with their validation targets;• the excess-tail-ratio interval and the certification-horizon conditions;• the model-free certificate's window rule. qpremise_code_at_freeze_79dbf14.zip holds the analysis code at the freeze. The protocol's code_sha256 can be recomputed from it: the SHA-256 over every qpremise/**/*.py file in path order, each file's relative path followed by its bytes with LF line endings. Hypotheses analysed after this registration (on test halves only) H1. After removing windows flagged by the frozen burst classifier, the excess tail ratio R(k) = P_obs(K ≥ k) / P_twin(K ≥ k) has an upper 95% confidence bound ≤ 3 for all k ≤ k_cert. Failure: a lower bound > 3 that replicates on the held-out half. H2. Including burst windows, R(k) > 10 for k ≥ k_b in at least one dataset, and a burst-mixture model fitted to the flagged windows predicts the published repetition-code error floor within a factor of 10. H3. The empirical horizon (power ≥ 0.8 at α = 0.05 against a factor-5 excess) agrees with the exact binomial computation within ±1. At least one dataset certifies k ≥ 10 in whole-patch windows. These are evaluated only on (dataset, window family) pairs that pass the G0 gate under both the stationary (N1) and drift-aware (N5) twins. The model-free certificate (T3) does not depend on the twin. Its threshold ε* is fixed before any certificate is computed. Timing and what had been seen Frozen 2026-10-01 17:31 IST (git commit 79dbf14). Before the freeze, only fit halves had been analysed. The G0 gate (bulk of the window-count distributions only; decision rule frozen) began on the test halves minutes after the freeze. When this record was created, no tail statistic (R(k), H1–H3, burst rates, certificates) had been computed from the test halves, and their tail bins had not been examined. The planned cloud-hardware contrast experiment (H4, H5) is not part of this registration and will be registered separately before any hardware run. Full details are in PREREGISTRATION.md. Protocol SHA-256: 5f7458cfdbe0e203fd9e2bf5d579703509c8374bae53096c37f8f1530540707a