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International Conference on Computation System and Information Technology for Sustainable Solutions (CSITSS)

Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Quantum Machine Learning

Vedant Raut, Kaina Shaikh, Vaishnavi Shendge, Digambar M. Padulkar

Published Nov 7, 2024• 1 citation
Publisher

Abstract

This research addresses the critical challenges of cyclone analysis and prediction, aiming to significantly advance the accuracy and efficiency of our understanding of cyclone behavior. Cyclones are powerful and destructive weather phe-nomena that can cause significant damage to life and property. Accurately predicting their intensity and potential impact is vital for timely evacuations and mitigation strategies. Current classical CNN models often struggle with classifying cyclones, mainly when their intensities exhibit subtle differences. Leveraging the NRLMRY (Naval Research Laboratory Monterey) Tropical Cyclone Data (TCDAT), we employ Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to enhance cyclone intensity estimation. By adopting a Quantum-Classical hybrid approach, which harnesses the power of quantum computing principles, we seek to overcome these limitations, providing more precise intensity estimations. Beyond intensity estimation, this project extends its focus to predicting the potential severity of damage that cyclones may inflict on cyclone-prone regions. Utilizing the same quantum-powered approach, we aspire to accurately classify whether a cyclone poses a significant threat to these vulnerable areas. Our holistic research endeavors to enhance the reliability of cyclone intensity estimation and damage prediction. Ultimately, integrating quantum machine learning and convolutional neural networks in cyclone analysis promises to contribute significantly to more effective disaster preparedness and response measures, safeguarding lives and property in cyclone-prone regions.

DOI
10.1109/csitss64042.2024.10816900

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This research addresses the critical challenges of cyclone analysis and prediction, aiming to significantly advance the accuracy and efficiency of our understanding of cyclone behavior. Cyclones are powerful and destructive weather phe-nomena that can cause significant damage to life and property. Accurately predicting their intensity and potential impact is vital for timely evacuations and mitigation strategies. Current classical CNN models often struggle with classifying cyclones, mainly when their intensities exhibit subtle differences. Leveraging the NRLMRY (Naval Research Laboratory Monterey) Tropical Cyclone Data (TCDAT), we employ Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to enhance cyclone intensity estimation. By adopting a Quantum-Classical hybrid approach, which harnesses the power of quantum computing principles, we seek to overcome these limitations, providing more precise intensity estimations. Beyond intensity estimation, this project extends its focus to predicting the potential severity of damage that cyclones may inflict on cyclone-prone regions. Utilizing the same quantum-powered approach, we aspire to accurately classify whether a cyclone poses a significant threat to these vulnerable areas. Our holistic research endeavors to enhance the reliability of cyclone intensity estimation and damage prediction. Ultimately, integrating quantum machine learning and convolutional neural networks in cyclone analysis promises to contribute significantly to more effective disaster preparedness and response measures, safeguarding lives and property in cyclone-prone regions.
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This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to enhance the accuracy of typhoon forecasting, with a particular emphasis on its implications for photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine systems in the context of extreme weather preparedness. A novel approach is proposed, integrating a quantum layer into a multi-model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network architecture. Implemented using CUDA-Q, the quantum layer leverages quantum phenomena to process typhoon-related data more effectively. The proposed quantum-enhanced LSTM model is evaluated on a large dataset of typhoon observations. Results demonstrate that the model achieves promising accuracy in both typhoon track forecasting—yielding mean absolute errors (MAE) of 0.0188 and 0.0307 for latitude and longitude, respectively—and intensity forecasting, with MAEs of 0.0233 for wind speed, 0.0449 for wind direction, and 0.0022 for the 50-knot wind radius. This research contributes to the growing field of quantum machine learning and its practical applications, paving the way for future advancements in typhoon prediction and disaster resilience, particularly in optimizing the operation and robustness of PV and wind turbine systems in typhoon-prone regions.
Machine Learning (ML) has been widely applied across numerous domains due to its ability to automatically identify informative patterns from data for various tasks. The availability of large-scale data and advanced computational power enables the development of sophisticated models and training strategies, leading to state-of-the-art performance, but it also introduces substantial challenges. Quantum Computing (QC), which exploits quantum mechanisms for computation, has attracted growing attention and significant global investment as it may address these challenges. Consequently, Quantum Machine Learning (QML), the integration of these two fields, has received increasing interest, with a notable rise in related studies in recent years. We are motivated to review these existing contributions regarding quantum circuit-based learning models for classical data analysis and highlight the identified potentials and challenges of this technique. Specifically, we focus not only on QML models, both kernel-based and neural network-based, but also on recent explorations of their integration with classical machine learning layers within hybrid frameworks. Moreover, we examine both theoretical analysis and empirical findings to better understand their capabilities, and we also discuss the efforts on noise-resilient and hardware-efficient QML that could enhance its practicality under current hardware limitations. In addition, we cover several emerging paradigms for advanced quantum circuit design and highlight the adaptability of QML across representative application domains. This study aims to provide an overview of the contributions made to bridge quantum computing and machine learning, offering insights and guidance to support its future development and pave the way for broader adoption in the coming years.
Introduction Accurate prediction of hurricane tracks, intensity, and rapid intensification remains a major challenge in meteorological forecasting. This study investigates whether a hybrid quantum-classical approach, called the Quantum-Enhanced Neural Network (QENN), can improve tropical cyclone prediction. Methods QENN combines atmospheric features from multiple sources with a four-layer, 50-qubit variational circuit, grouped Pauli measurements, and a classical temporal prediction model. The evaluation included 847 Atlantic tropical cyclones recorded between 1980 and 2024. Separate hurricane-disjoint partitions were used for model development, validation, testing, and the 2024 holdout evaluation. Model reliability was further examined through ten random-seed runs, storm-level bootstrap confidence intervals, calibration analysis, comparisons with recent forecasting models, and a width-matched classical ablation study. Results On the locked 2016–2023 test set, QENN achieved a 120-h track mean absolute error of 83.7 km (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78.9–88.6 km), compared with 312.0 km (95% CI: 299.6–325.1 km) for the operational classical ensemble, representing a 73.2% reduction in relative error. For rapid-intensification prediction, QENN achieved a balanced accuracy of 94.7% (95% CI: 91.2%–97.1%), while the classical baseline achieved 67.3%. The median wall-clock time was 50.0 min for QENN and 210.0 min for the classical ensemble, equivalent to a 4.20-fold speed-up and a 76.2% reduction in runtime. In the 2024 holdout evaluation, which included six storms, the mean landfall-position error was 45 km (95% CI: 39–51 km). Discussion The results indicate that quantum-enhanced correlation features may improve forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency within the proposed experimental framework. However, the runtime comparison does not establish a formal quantum computational advantage. Further testing under operational forecasting conditions and validation on quantum hardware are needed to assess the reliability, generalizability, and practical value of the approach.
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) is an emerging interdisciplinary field that combines the computational power of quantum computing with machine learning techniques to address the scalability challenges faced by classical AI systems. As datasets and models grow in complexity, traditional machine learning algorithms encounter limitations related to processing speed, accuracy, and resource efficiency. This research explores the potential of QML to overcome these barriers by leveraging quantum algorithms such as Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithms (QAOA), Quantum Support Vector Machines (QSVM), and Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs) to enhance the scalability and efficiency of AI applications. Through a combination of literature review, algorithm simulation, and hybrid quantum-classical approaches, the study evaluates the speedup, accuracy improvements, and resource efficiency that quantum-enhanced models can offer. The research also investigates practical applications of QML in domains such as healthcare, finance, and climate science. Despite significant advancements, challenges related to quantum hardware, error correction, and noise remain, which will be discussed alongside strategies for overcoming these issues. The findings suggest that while quantum machine learning holds immense potential, its full impact on scalable AI will require further advancements in quantum computing and its integration with classical systems.