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IEEE Industry Applications Society Annual Meeting (IAS)

Extreme Weather Forecasting Using Quantum-Enhanced LSTM Network

Ying‐Yi Hong, Daryll John Medina, Yun-Yuan Wang

Published Jun 15, 2025• 3 citations
Publisher

Abstract

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to enhance the accuracy of typhoon forecasting, with a particular emphasis on its implications for photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine systems in the context of extreme weather preparedness. A novel approach is proposed, integrating a quantum layer into a multi-model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network architecture. Implemented using CUDA-Q, the quantum layer leverages quantum phenomena to process typhoon-related data more effectively. The proposed quantum-enhanced LSTM model is evaluated on a large dataset of typhoon observations. Results demonstrate that the model achieves promising accuracy in both typhoon track forecasting—yielding mean absolute errors (MAE) of 0.0188 and 0.0307 for latitude and longitude, respectively—and intensity forecasting, with MAEs of 0.0233 for wind speed, 0.0449 for wind direction, and 0.0022 for the 50-knot wind radius. This research contributes to the growing field of quantum machine learning and its practical applications, paving the way for future advancements in typhoon prediction and disaster resilience, particularly in optimizing the operation and robustness of PV and wind turbine systems in typhoon-prone regions.

DOI
10.1109/ias62731.2025.11061382

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This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to enhance the accuracy of typhoon forecasting, with a particular emphasis on its implications for photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine systems in the context of extreme weather preparedness. A novel approach is proposed, integrating a quantum layer into a multi-model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network architecture. Implemented using CUDA-Q, the quantum layer leverages quantum phenomena to process typhoon-related data more effectively. The proposed quantum-enhanced LSTM model is evaluated on a large dataset of typhoon observations. Results demonstrate that the model achieves promising accuracy in both typhoon track forecasting—yielding mean absolute errors (MAE) of 0.0188 and 0.0307 for latitude and longitude, respectively—and intensity forecasting, with MAEs of 0.0233 for wind speed, 0.0449 for wind direction, and 0.0022 for the 50-knot wind radius. This research contributes to the growing field of quantum machine learning and its practical applications, paving the way for future advancements in typhoon prediction and disaster resilience, particularly in optimizing the operation and robustness of PV and wind turbine systems in typhoon-prone regions.
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We present a quantum-enhanced deep learning framework for short-term forecasting of extreme convective weather systems, specifically targeting the formation of bow echo structures through prediction clouds. Our approach integrates a quantum convolutional neural network (QCNN) into a classical convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) pipeline, incorporating a 10-qubit variational quantum circuit executed on the lightning.qubit simulator. The model is trained using heterogeneous meteorological data (satellite images, convective available potential energy (CAPE) fields, lightning activity) from the extreme storm that hit the Corsican coast on August 18, 2022, preceding the convective event and evaluated during the critical intensification window (0700–0800 h). We compare this hybrid quantum model with classical CNN-LSTM and CNN-LSTM-Transformer architectures using three complementary metrics: Root mean squared error (RMSE), structural similarity index (SSIM), and Wasserstein distance. The quantum model demonstrates superior robustness to input noise and adversarial perturbations fast gradient sign method (FGSM), maintaining spatial coherence and stable prediction under degradation. These findings highlight the capacity of quantum circuits to encode more resilient representations for meteorological inference. This study provides a concrete application of hybrid QCNN architectures in the domain of extreme weather forecasting and lays the groundwork for future integration of topological data analysis to assess the preservation of topological features in quantum predictions.
Typhoon trajectory forecasting is essential for disaster preparedness but remains computationally demanding due to the complexity of atmospheric dynamics and the resource requirements of deep learning models. Quantum-Train (QT), a hybrid quantum-classical framework that leverages quantum neural networks (QNNs) to generate trainable parameters exclusively during training, eliminating the need for quantum hardware at inference time. Building on QT's success across multiple domains, including image classification, reinforcement learning, flood prediction, and large language model (LLM) finetuning, we introduce Quantum Parameter Adaptation (QPA) for efficient typhoon forecasting model learning. Integrated with an Attention-based Multi-ConvGRU model, QPA enables parameterefficient training while maintaining predictive accuracy. This work represents the first application of quantum machine learning (QML) to large-scale typhoon trajectory prediction, offering a scalable and energy-efficient approach to climate modeling. Our results demonstrate that QPA significantly reduces the number of trainable parameters while preserving performance, making high-performance forecasting more accessible and sustainable through hybrid quantum-classical learning.
Time series forecasting is vital in many fields, including energy demand prediction and financial markets. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated strong performance in capturing temporal dependencies in sequential data. However, traditional LSTM face challenges such as vanishing gradients and limited capabilities in modeling long-term dependencies, especially with complex, high-dimensional data. The model integrates Variable Quantum Circuit (VQC) into a modified LSTM (mLSTM) structure, taking advantage of quantum properties such as superposition and entanglement to improve memory retention and computational efficiency. We would like to introduce modified Quantum Long Short-Term Memory (mQLSTM), which is specifically designed for photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting. Key improvements include a quantum memory mechanism that mitigates loss of information over extended sequences, a redesigned forget gate to enhance long-term learning and an Exponentially Weighted Feature (EWF) layer to accelerate convergence and enhance generalization. This paper highlights the potential of quantum-enhanced deep learning architectures to advance time series forecasting and opens new directions for practical applications in renewable energy and beyond.
The intermittent nature of wind speed poses challenges for its widespread utilization as an electrical power generation source. As the integration of wind energy into the power system increases, accurate wind speed forecasting becomes crucial. The reliable scheduling of wind power generation heavily relies on precise wind speed forecasts. This paper presents an extended work that focuses on a hybrid model for 24 h ahead wind speed forecasting. The proposed model combines residual Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and a quantum neural network that is studied by a quantum simulator, leveraging the support of NVIDIA Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA). To ensure the desired accuracy, a comparative analysis is conducted, examining the qubit count and quantum circuit depth of the proposed model. The execution time required for the model is significantly reduced when the GPU incorporates CUDA, accounting for only 8.29% of the time required by a classical CPU. In addition, different quantum embedding layers with various entangler layers in the quantum neural network are explored. The simulation results utilizing an offshore wind farm dataset demonstrate that the proper number of qubits and embedding layer can achieve favorable 24 h ahead wind speed forecasts.
Accurately forecasting how people move during natural disasters is essential for helping communities stay safe and recover quickly. Information from mobile phones, GPS, and social media gives a real time view of where people are and how they’re moving. This helps emergency teams make more time effective and accurate decisions. But traditional computer models can not handle this kind of complex and fast-changing data, especially when time is critical. This study investigates the use of quantum machine learning (QML), with a particular emphasis on quantum neural networks and hybrid quantumclassical models, to forecast mobility patterns during disasters. A structured dataset containing individual movement information within a 15 by 20 kilometer region was used to train and evaluate multiple forecasting models. The results show that the hybrid quantum-classical model achieved the highest forecasting accuracy, with a coefficient of determination (R2R^{2}R2) of 0.91 and a mean absolute error of approximately 1143.33 individuals. This model also maintained a good balance between predictive performance and complexity of the model, as shown in its AIC and BIC scores. In comparison, the classical multilayer perceptron performed competitive results with an R2\mathbf{R}^{2}R2 of 0.89\mathbf{0. 8 9}0.89, while the generalized quantum model yielded an R2\mathbf{R}^{2}R2 of 0.81\mathbf{0. 8 1}0.81. The LSTM model underperformed and it gave unstable predictions and had much higher errors. These findings highlight the potential of hybrid quantum models particularly QNN based architectures to enhance disaster preparedness by delivering accurate and scalable mobility forecasts in critical situations where early decisions are essential.