Abstract: The past decade has witnessed considerable hope—and no small measure of hyperbole and fear—regarding a coming "revolution" in quantum computing, sensing, and communication. With states and multinational corporations investing billions of dollars globally, there have been incremental advances punctuated by notable breakthroughs, and several second-generation quantum technologies are already being field-tested and tentatively deployed. While it is premature to declare the arrival of a "quantum age," the disruptive impact and existential anxieties elicited by generative AI underscore that now is the time to consider the potential consequences of quantum tipping points. In this article, we embark on a speculative journey—a Gedankenexperiment, if you will—exploring how the pursuit to develop and deploy quantum technologies might reshape the international geopolitical landscape.
Abstract: The past decade has witnessed considerable hope—and no small measure of hyperbole and fear—regarding a coming "revolution" in quantum computing, sensing, and communication. With states and multinational corporations investing billions of dollars globally, there have been incremental advances punctuated by notable breakthroughs, and several second-generation quantum technologies are already being field-tested and tentatively deployed. While it is premature to declare the arrival of a "quantum age," the disruptive impact and existential anxieties elicited by generative AI underscore that now is the time to consider the potential consequences of quantum tipping points. In this article, we embark on a speculative journey—a Gedankenexperiment, if you will—exploring how the pursuit to develop and deploy quantum technologies might reshape the international geopolitical landscape.
"The rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to the cybersecurity of our increasingly digitized world. As quantum computers become more powerful and accessible, they have the potential to break many of the cryptographic algorithms that currently secure our sensitive data, financial transactions, and critical infrastructure. This looming “quantum threat” has far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and nation-states, as it could lead to widespread data breaches, economic disruption, and compromised national security. Despite the growing recognition of this risk, existing legal and regulatory frameworks are largely unprepared to address the unique challenges of quantum-enabled cyber threats. Moreover, the geopolitical implications of the quantum revolution are complex and multifaceted, with the potential to reshape the global balance of power and exacerbate technological inequalities. To mitigate these risks and promote quantum readiness, there is an urgent need for the international community to develop new legal frameworks and cooperative mechanisms that span technical, economic, legal, and political domains. This article provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the quantum threat to cybersecurity, examines its potential impacts across various sectors and international relations, and offers policy recommendations for developing a comprehensive global governance framework. By proactively addressing this challenge through multi-stakeholder collaboration and quantum-resistant solutions, we can work towards a more secure and resilient digital future in the face of this transformative technology. "
While the fundamental nature of war remains constant, military strategies continue to evolve in response to capabilities enabled by new technologies. Therefore, military leaders must be aware of emerging and disruptive technologies to maintain forces that are relevant. One such technology is quantum technology, which has received a great deal of attention in the past few years due to its potential application in a wide range of areas. Particularly, quantum technology promises breakthroughs in various domains of warfare by significantly enhancing current military technology. This article explores three major defense applications of quantum technology—quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communication—and their impact on future warfare based on realistic assessment.
Without quantum mechanics, the nuclear and information revolutions of the twentieth century would not have happened. In this article, we examine how new quantum technologies are coming to reshape war and peace in the twenty-first century. Research and development across quantum computing, communications, and sensing has taken on the dynamic of a “quantum race” between major powers, big tech, and academic institutions. A quantum advantage in these areas could radically reshape political and economic as well as strategic balances of power. In a world already marked by global entanglement, deep uncertainty, and superpositional states of war and peace, quantized modes of understanding need to expand from the natural and physical sciences into the social and political sciences, which remain stuck in causal, linear, and deterministic worldviews inherited from the seventeenth century. We use this article to begin to push beyond the classical limits of traditional international relations to consider new epistemic tools, ethical frameworks, and geopolitical strategies for a world order transformed by Quantum 3.0.
Quantum technologies, spanning communication, sensing, computing, and cryptography, are rapidly emerging as critical paths of geopolitical competition and strategic defence innovation. Unlike traditional technological advances, quantum introduces novel capabilities that fundamentally disrupt established norms of security, intelligence, and diplomatic engagement. This strategic analysis explores the evolving quantum landscape through the dual lenses of diplomacy and geopolitics, with specific implications for defence leaders, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. The benefits and challenges of quantum technologies are examined from a diplomatic and geopolitical perspective to help leaders make informed strategic decisions. Leading powers now recognise quantum as a domain where technological leadership directly translates to geopolitical influence, compelling an intense race for dominance alongside new forms of multilateral diplomacy aimed at managing both risks and opportunities. Quantum technologies do not all have the same operational maturity, but technological progress is accelerating. Post-quantum cryptography demands immediate action, every encrypted communication created today may be harvested and decrypted within the decade by adversaries equipped with quantum capabilities.
Abstract Quantum technologies have profoundly shaped surveillance practices, embedding themselves into the critical infrastructure of the information age. This article explores the historical trajectory of quantum technologies, emphasizing their omnipresence and influence on surveillance technologies and surveillance practices and arguing for communicating the distinctions as being from two eras. This is based on more foundational Quantum 1.0 era technologies which has implications for the transformative potential of Quantum 2.0. By examining quantum-enabled advancements in computing, sensing, and communication, we highlight how developments in quantum will lead to a deepening and disruption of surveillance capabilities, as well as the ethical and societal challenges these technologies pose. We argue for a non-deterministic approach to understanding quantum developments, advocating for early engagement and value-sensitive design to mitigate harms and foster socially responsible futures. Furthermore, interdisciplinary collaboration is necessary to address potential quantum divides and rethink surveillance concepts. Ultimately, this work contributes to a broader understanding of emerging quantum technologies in fields of humanities and social sciences and comments on their potential to shape our surveillance (technology) futures.
Quantum sensing, computing, and communication offer some significant improvements on classical technologies, in some cases create fundamentally new capabilities. Quantum technologies are quickly arriving. Even if the most hyped promises in quantum computing are not realized in the next decade, in the near term quantum sensing could shift relationships irrevocably. This book has painted the landscape of quantum's implications---from nation-state concerns of strategic conflict, intelligence gathering, and law enforcement activities; to the concerns of companies that may be subject to industrial policy priorities and restrictions; to the level of the individual who may face institutions with great asymmetries in sensing and sense-making power. This chapter concludes with a forecast of quantum technology scenarios, with forecasts for each quantum technology analyzed in this book, and with a summary of the most important policy issues to pursue.