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Quantum Technology and the Military-Revolution or Hype?: The Impact of Emerging Quantum Technologies on Future Warfare

Daniel Sunghoi Choi

Published Sep 6, 2023• 9 citations
Publisher

Abstract

While the fundamental nature of war remains constant, military strategies continue to evolve in response to capabilities enabled by new technologies. Therefore, military leaders must be aware of emerging and disruptive technologies to maintain forces that are relevant. One such technology is quantum technology, which has received a great deal of attention in the past few years due to its potential application in a wide range of areas. Particularly, quantum technology promises breakthroughs in various domains of warfare by significantly enhancing current military technology. This article explores three major defense applications of quantum technology—quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communication—and their impact on future warfare based on realistic assessment.

DOI
10.36304/expwmcup.2023.11

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While the fundamental nature of war remains constant, military strategies continue to evolve in response to capabilities enabled by new technologies. Therefore, military leaders must be aware of emerging and disruptive technologies to maintain forces that are relevant. One such technology is quantum technology, which has received a great deal of attention in the past few years due to its potential application in a wide range of areas. Particularly, quantum technology promises breakthroughs in various domains of warfare by significantly enhancing current military technology. This article explores three major defense applications of quantum technology—quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communication—and their impact on future warfare based on realistic assessment.
Quantum technology is an emergent area with the potential to be disruptive and ability to affect many human activities. Quantum technologies are dual-use technologies, and as such, they are the subject of interest for the defence and security industry and military and governmental actors. This report aims to review and map the possible quantum technology military applications to serve as the entry point for international peace and international security assessment, ethics research or military and governmental policy, strategy and decision making. Quantum technologies for military applications, introducing new capabilities, increasing effectiveness and improving precision lead to 'quantum warfare', wherein new military strategies, doctrines, policies and ethics should be established. This report provides a basic overview of quantum technologies under development where the expected time scale of delivery or utilisation impact are estimated. The particular applications of quantum technology for the military are described for various warfare domains (e.g., cyber, space, electronic, underwater warfare, or intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance), and related issues and challenges are articulated.
Abstract Quantum technology is an emergent and potentially disruptive discipline, with the ability to affect many human activities. Quantum technologies are dual-use technologies, and as such are of interest to the defence and security industry and military and governmental actors. This report reviews and maps the possible quantum technology military applications, serving as an entry point for international peace and security assessment, ethics research, military and governmental policy, strategy and decision making. Quantum technologies for military applications introduce new capabilities, improving effectiveness and increasing precision, thus leading to ‘quantum warfare’, wherein new military strategies, doctrines, policies and ethics should be established. This report provides a basic overview of quantum technologies under development, also estimating the expected time scale of delivery or the utilisation impact. Particular military applications of quantum technology are described for various warfare domains (e.g. land, air, space, electronic, cyber and underwater warfare and ISTAR—intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance), and related issues and challenges are articulated.
The battlefield in the coming years is poised to enter a new phase of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), potentially marking another transformative evolution. This is due to the ‘quantum ecosystems’ or simply quantum technology’s ability to supersede traditional technologies based on classical physics. The paper explores how quantum technology is poised to bring about changes in military affairs. Advancements in weapons, sensors, targeting capabilities, striking precision, and communications will significantly enhance military capabilities. The first half of the paper examines the elements of the RMA to assess whether they hold a comparable impact on warfare. The second section evaluates the potential influence of quantum technologies on future military affairs. The paper concludes that, although quantum technology is often portrayed as revolutionary, its current impact remains largely theoretical, as it has not yet been operationally deployed.
History has shown that new technologies can change the face of war significantly. Today, experiencing the speed of innovation and the emergence of technologies made possible by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, even the classical Clausewitzian theory of the nature of war can be questioned. The United States is expected to have an early advantage in the area of quantum computing. However, China is also exploring the applications of quantum technology and has already surpassed the United States in the area of quantum communication. Therefore, recognizing the importance of quantum technology and its application, developing its integration, and understanding the strategic context laid in the US National Defense Strategy 2018 (NDS 2018), it is imperative to consider quantum technology in the paradigm of operational art. Quantum technology is an emerging technology that has the potential to reshape the world and provoke a new arms race. Given that we are in the early stages of quantum technology and there exists the potential of this technology providing the United States and her allies an advantage over adversaries, this monograph analyzes quantum technology and examines its potential importance in future warfare.
Quantum technology is an emerging and possibly revolutionary field, capable of impacting several human efforts. Quantum technologies are dual-use, attracting interest from the defense, security, military, and governmental sectors. Previous research has highlighted the substantial benefits of using quantum computing systems across several domains. These systems have previously exhibited the capability to accelerate processing in critical domains, such as big integer factorization, relative to their traditional equivalents. The fundamental significance of quantum factoring has been proven for cryptography. This will render RSA encryption, a widely used encryption method based on the inability of computer systems to factor huge integers, effectively useless. Nonetheless, overcoming encryption is not the only potential use or benefit of quantum computing for national defense and security-related objectives. This review paper explores the emerging role of quantum computing in the military and defense sectors. It highlights the significance of recent advancements in quantum technologies for defense applications and provides an overview of defense-focused quantum research. A comprehensive literature survey examined various existing quantum computing techniques relevant to military use. The paper also presents a comparative analysis of these approaches, discusses key challenges, and outlines potential future directions in this rapidly evolving field.
The article focuses on quantum technologies and the prospects for their application in the defense and security sectors. Based on an analysis of the current state of development of quantum technologies and their applications in defense and security, three main areas are identified: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensors. For each of these, a specific set of applications, advantages, and limitations is identified. It is noted that quantum computing in defense and security finds application primarily in four subfields: post-quantum cryptography, quantum cryptography, cyber threat detection, and cryptanalysis; quantum communication ensures secure information transmission by utilizing the physical properties of quantum states, particularly the principle of the impossibility of cloning a quantum state, with its primary practical application being Quantum key distribution and its promising application being the quantum internet; quantum sensors are the category of quantum technologies closest to operational deployment, as they utilize the hypersensitivity of quantum states to external disturbances to achieve measurement accuracy unattainable by classical devices. A summary of the main areas of application for quantum technologies in defense and security indicates that quantum sensors have the nearest practical implementation horizon (5–7 years), while quantum computing will have the greatest strategic impact on cryptographic infrastructure due to the threat it poses to existing asymmetric encryption algorithms—which is precisely why the transition to post-quantum standards is becoming urgent. Therefore, given the significant interest in and funding for quantum technologies from both the civilian industry and governments, it is expected that these technologies will continue to develop and new quantum applications will become available over the next five to ten years, and new advances in the development of quantum technologies may bring new opportunities for the military, but for the military to actually reap the benefits of new quantum technologies, they need to actively engage in this field and guide the development and implementation of military applications of quantum technologies.