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Evaluation Framework for Quantum Security Risk Assessment: A Comprehensive Study for Quantum-Safe Migration

Yaser Baseri, Vikas Chouhan, Ali Akbar Ghorbani, Aaron Chow

Published Jan 1, 2024• 4 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.2139/ssrn.4750609

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The rise of large-scale quantum computing poses a significant threat to traditional cryptographic security measures. Quantum attacks, particularly targeting the mathematical foundations of current asymmetric cryptographic algorithms, render them ineffective. Even standard symmetric key cryptography is susceptible, albeit to a lesser extent, with potential security enhancements through longer keys or extended hash function outputs. Consequently, the cryptographic solutions currently employed to safeguard data will be inadequately secure and vulnerable to emerging quantum technology threats. In response to this impending quantum menace, organizations must chart a course towards quantum-safe environments, demanding robust business continuity plans and meticulous risk management throughout the migration process. This study provides an in-depth exploration of the challenges associated with migrating from a non-quantum-safe cryptographic state to one resilient against quantum threats. We introduce a comprehensive security risk assessment framework that scrutinizes vulnerabilities across algorithmic, certificate, and protocol layers, covering the entire migration journey, including pre-migration, through-migration, and post-migration stages. Our methodology links identified vulnerabilities to the well-established STRIDE threat model, establishing precise criteria for evaluating their potential impact and likelihood throughout the migration process. Moving beyond theoretical analysis, we address vulnerabilities practically, especially within critical components like cryptographic algorithms, public key infrastructures, and network protocols. Our study not only identifies potential attacks and vulnerabilities at each layer and migration stage but also suggests possible countermeasures and alternatives to enhance system resilience, empowering organizations to construct a secure infrastructure for the quantum era. Through these efforts, we establish the foundation for enduring security in networked systems amid the challenges of the quantum era.
Quantum Computing (QC) threatens the cryptographic foundations of Cloud Computing (CC), exposing distributed infrastructures to novel attack vectors. This survey provides comprehensive analysis of quantum-safe cloud security, examining vulnerabilities, transition strategies, and layer-specific countermeasures across nine architectural layers (application, data, runtime, middleware, OS, virtualization, server, storage, networking). We employ STRIDE-based risk assessment aligned with NIST SP 800-30 to evaluate quantum threats through three transition phases: pre-transition (classical cryptography vulnerabilities), hybrid (migration risks), and post-transition (PQC implementation weaknesses including side-channel attacks). Our security framework integrates hybrid cryptographic strategies (algorithmic combiners, dual/composite certificates, protocol-level migration), cryptographic agility, and risk-prioritized mitigation tailored to cloud environments. We benchmark NIST-standardized PQC algorithms for performance and deployment suitability, assess side-channel and implementation vulnerabilities, and analyze quantum-safe strategies from leading CSPs (AWS, Azure, GCP). The survey delivers layer-specific threat taxonomies, likelihood-impact risk matrices, and CSP-informed deployment roadmaps for cloud architects, policymakers, and researchers. We identify six critical research directions: standardization and interoperability, hardware acceleration and performance optimization, AI-enhanced security and threat mitigation, integration with emerging cloud technologies, systemic preparedness and workforce development, and migration frameworks with crypto-agility.
Quantum computing is emerging as a significant threat to information protected by widely used cryptographic systems. Cryptographic methods, once deemed secure for decades, are now at risk of being compromised, posing a massive threat to the security of sensitive data and communications across enterprises worldwide. As a result, there is an urgent need to migrate to quantum-resistant cryptographic systems. This is no simple task. Migrating to a quantum-safe state is a complex process, and many organisations lack the in-house expertise to navigate this transition without guidance. In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework designed to assist enterprises with this migration. Our framework outlines essential steps involved in the cryptographic migration process, and leverages existing organisational inventories. The framework facilitates the efficient identification of cryptographic assets and can be integrated with other enterprise frameworks smoothly. To underscore its practicality and effectiveness, we have incorporated case studies that utilise graph-theoretic techniques to pinpoint and assess cryptographic dependencies. This is useful in prioritising crypto-systems for replacement.