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RAND Corporation eBooks

Evaluating Cryptographic Vulnerabilities Created by Quantum Computing in Industrial Control Systems

Michael J. D. Vermeer, Chad Heitzenrater, Parker, Edward, Alvin Moon, Domenique Lumpkin, Jalal Awan, Patricia Stapleton

Published Jan 1, 2023• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Migration to post-quantum cryptography to prepare for future capabilities of quantum computing has implications for industrial control and operational technology systems. These implications affect how system owners and operators and other stakeholders should prepare for the migration and prioritize mitigation options.
DOI
10.7249/rra2427-1

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Quantum computing is no longer a distant concern for cybersecurity planning. Its progress has raised serious questions about the long-term reliability of widely used public-key cryptographic systems, especially RSA, elliptic curve cryptography, and related key exchange mechanisms that currently protect digital communication, cloud services, financial transactions, government systems, and enterprise information assets. The main concern is that powerful quantum algorithms could weaken the mathematical assumptions on which these systems depend, creating future risks for encrypted data, digital signatures, identity systems, and secure network protocols (Shor, 1994; Mosca, 2018). Post-quantum cryptography has therefore become a major cybersecurity readiness priority, not only as a technical replacement for vulnerable algorithms, but as a broader organizational migration challenge. Effective preparation requires cryptographic asset inventory, risk classification, crypto-agility, vendor coordination, interoperability testing, and phased deployment across complex information systems (Kumar, 2022; Campbell, 2025). This article examines the cybersecurity implications of quantum computing and reviews the major post-quantum cryptographic algorithm families, current standardization efforts, enterprise migration barriers, and strategic readiness measures needed for the quantum computing era. It also discusses the importance of aligning post-quantum migration with existing cybersecurity governance, information systems management, and long-term digital resilience planning. By emphasizing early preparation, structured migration, and continuous cryptographic governance, the article argues that organizations can reduce future quantum-related exposure and strengthen the security of critical digital infrastructure before large-scale quantum attacks become practical (NIST, 2024; NCCoE, 2025).
This research delves into the critical analysis of vulnerabilities arising from the advent of quantum computing in traditional cryptographic systems. Employing a newly developed mathematical formulation model, the study meticulously evaluates the susceptibility of classical encryption methods, exemplified by XYZ Bank's RSA and ECC algorithms, to quantum algorithms such as Shor's and Grover's. The assessment reveals pronounced vulnerabilities, particularly highlighting the high susceptibility of RSA encryption to quantum attacks, emphasizing the urgent need to fortify existing cryptographic systems. The research rigorously evaluates potential countermeasures, with Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) emerging as a promising solution, showcasing superior effectiveness in mitigating vulnerabilities posed by quantum algorithms. The strategic imperative for organizations to transition towards PQC or other post-quantum cryptographic standards is evident, signaling a paradigm shift towards resilient encryption methods resilient to the disruptive capabilities of quantum computing. The research underscores the significance of collaboration among industry stakeholders, continuous research endeavors, and proactive measures in adopting quantum-resistant cryptographic standards to fortify data security strategies against potential quantum threats in an ever-evolving technological landscape.
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Cryptographic technologies are used throughout government and industry to authenticate the source and protect the confidentiality and integrity of information that we communicate and store.The paper describes the impact of quantum computing technology on classical cryptography, particularly on public-key cryptographic systems.This paper also introduces adoption challenges associated with post-quantum cryptography after the standardization process is completed.Planning requirements for migration to post-quantum cryptography are discussed.The paper concludes with NIST's next steps for helping with the migration to post-quantum cryptography.
Cryptographic technologies are used throughout government and industry to authenticate the source and protect the confidentiality and integrity of information that we communicate and store.The paper describes the impact of quantum computing technology on classical cryptography, particularly on public-key cryptographic systems.This paper also introduces adoption challenges associated with post-quantum cryptography after the standardization process is completed.Planning requirements for migration to post-quantum cryptography are discussed.The paper concludes with NIST's next steps for helping with the migration to post-quantum cryptography.
How companies prepare for the migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) remains an open and important question, despite growing awareness of the threat posed by cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs). While PQC standards released by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in 2024 aim to resist both quantum and classical attacks, migrating to these standards presents significant technical and organizational challenges. Existing research has focused on algorithm design and migration frameworks, but little is known about how companies approach this migration in practice. Through semi-structured interviews, we explore how four companies address the CRQC threat and PQC migration. We have found that companies perceive the timing and threat of CRQC differently, which implies that these perceptions influence PQC migration.