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European Journal of Risk Regulation

Quantum Computing: Bridging the National Security–Digital Sovereignty Divide

Anders Liman, Kate Weber

Published Jul 14, 2023• 20 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Abstract Quantum computing research and development efforts have grown dramatically over the past decades, led in part by initiatives from governments around the world. Government quantum computing investments are often driven by national security or digital sovereignty concerns, with the language used depending on the geography involved. For example, a focus on “national security” and quantum computing is prominent in the USA, while European countries regularly focus on “digital sovereignty”. These phrases are often loosely defined and open to interpretation, and they share some common motivations and characteristics (but also have important differences). This paper identifies specific governmental entities typifying the national security/digital sovereignty perspectives, along with these organisations’ respective roles within national and international policy engagement in quantum computing. It analyses governmental structures, historical developments and cultural characteristics that contributed to this national security–digital sovereignty divide. Building on this analysis, we use the history of other technologies to illustrate how we might adapt tested policy approaches to modern political dynamics and to quantum computing specifically. We frame these policy approaches so that they do not overemphasise “digital sovereignty” or “national security”, but rather address interests shared across both concepts, with a view to facilitating international collaboration.

DOI
10.1017/err.2023.44

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Abstract Quantum computing research and development efforts have grown dramatically over the past decades, led in part by initiatives from governments around the world. Government quantum computing investments are often driven by national security or digital sovereignty concerns, with the language used depending on the geography involved. For example, a focus on “national security” and quantum computing is prominent in the USA, while European countries regularly focus on “digital sovereignty”. These phrases are often loosely defined and open to interpretation, and they share some common motivations and characteristics (but also have important differences). This paper identifies specific governmental entities typifying the national security/digital sovereignty perspectives, along with these organisations’ respective roles within national and international policy engagement in quantum computing. It analyses governmental structures, historical developments and cultural characteristics that contributed to this national security–digital sovereignty divide. Building on this analysis, we use the history of other technologies to illustrate how we might adapt tested policy approaches to modern political dynamics and to quantum computing specifically. We frame these policy approaches so that they do not overemphasise “digital sovereignty” or “national security”, but rather address interests shared across both concepts, with a view to facilitating international collaboration.
The rapid advancement of quantum computing technology presents unprecedented opportunities and challenges for global governance. This comprehensive study examines the current landscape of international quantum computing regulation, exploring the delicate balance between fostering innovation and addressing security concerns. Through a mixed-methods approach, including policy analysis, expert interviews, and case studies of key countries and regions, we identify significant fragmentation in regulatory approaches, a pressing need for standardization, and ethical considerations that demand immediate attention. Our findings reveal strong stakeholder support for international cooperation, despite geopolitical tensions, and highlight the risk of a growing "quantum divide" between nations. Based on these insights, we propose a series of recommendations, including the establishment of an International Quantum Governance Forum, the adoption of a risk-based adaptive regulatory framework, and the implementation of a Global Quantum Literacy Initiative. This research contributes to the ongoing dialogue on quantum technology governance and provides a roadmap for policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders to navigate the complexities of regulating this transformative technology. By addressing these challenges proactively, we can harness the full potential of quantum computing while mitigating its risks, ultimately shaping a quantum future that benefits all of humanity.
The 21st century is confronting profound transformations driven by emerging technologies, notably quantum computing, which promises opportunities and risks. As industries and governments invest heavily in quantum capabilities, the looming threat of quantum computers compromising current encryption schemes has prompted the exploration of postquantum systems. This research surveys quantum technologies and reviews existing and proposed quantum policies, particularly cybersecurity, to address critical policy challenges encompassing full-spectrum quantum computing development. Our retrospective literature review and prospective analysis reveal that the research and innovation trajectory involving quantum computing technologies will mature within the next decade. With geopolitical actors gaining access to cloud-based quantum computers, more stakeholders will engage with these nascent technologies, presenting new opportunities and risks. We argue that misaligned proposals, not sufficiently aligned with strategic policy, could hinder the adoption of emerging technologies and undermine national security. This thesis analyzes and addresses these issues and provides recommendations to enhance quantum computing security analysis and reshape geopolitical policies to effectively counter the imminent threats to national security.
The rapid development of quantum computing is one of the most transformative technological developments of the twenty-first century with profound implications for cybersecurity, digital governance and the future of secure communication systems. Traditional cryptographic infrastructures have fundamentally underpinned digital trust in banking, healthcare, defense, cloud computing, and global communication networks, but the advent of quantum computational power has led to increasing concern about the future of existing standards for encryption. This qualitative study critically examines the changing relationship between quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography through an analysis of the technological, institutional, ethical and governance challenges in the transition to quantum-secure digital systems. The study adopts an interpretivist and exploratory qualitative orientation that aims to understand how governments, cybersecurity experts, technology institutions and policy frameworks are responding to the disruptive potential of quantum technologies. Data were collected using thematic analysis of academic literature, cybersecurity policy documents, archival technological reviews, expert commentaries, institutional reports, and emerging case studies related to the development of quantum-resistant cryptography. The results show that quantum computing presents serious threats to existing public-key cryptographic systems, especially in terms of theoretical abilities of Shor’s algorithm and future quantum decryption models. Meanwhile, the paper outlines post-quantum cryptography as a vital avenue for safeguarding digital privacy, institutional credibility, and cybersecurity robustness in an ever more networked society. The analysis also points to ongoing challenges around technological readiness, regulatory uncertainty, global standardization, resource inequality and ethical issues around surveillance, privacy and digital sovereignty. Yet, the research points to the potential for secure digital transformation, resilient cybersecurity governance, and the re-inventing of future communication infrastructure through post-quantum innovation. The research finds that the transition to quantum-secure systems is not just a technological challenge, but a multidimensional governance and policy challenge requiring international cooperation, ethical foresight and proactive institutional change.
Quantum computing has the potential to impact geopolitical power balances, global economic stability, and national security. The exponentially increased power of a fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computer will threaten the security of existing cryptographic mechanisms that underpin safe online activity. Therefore, it is imperative that nations prepare for this emerging cyber risk. However, no literature currently describes how prepared New Zealand is to face quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. This research aims to close this knowledge gap by investigating how prepared critical New Zealand organisations are to face quantum computing-enabled threats. It also explores the role the New Zealand Government should play in forming global policy on quantum technology’s ethical and cybersecurity implications. Finally, this research aims to clarify the factors that will influence New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness in a quantum-enabled landscape. This qualitative study was undertaken through a lens of classical pragmatism. An interview method derived findings that reflected the lived experience of New Zealand cybersecurity and technology policy professionals and uncovered insufficient organisational preparation to address emerging quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. Document analysis found a growing global emphasis on developing quantum technology to ensure national sovereignty and security and highlighted the New Zealand Government’s need to promote international collaboration in quantum technology. The research describes global, national, and organisational readiness factors that may impact New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness and provide actionable knowledge to prepare New Zealand for a quantum computing-enabled world.
"The rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to the cybersecurity of our increasingly digitized world. As quantum computers become more powerful and accessible, they have the potential to break many of the cryptographic algorithms that currently secure our sensitive data, financial transactions, and critical infrastructure. This looming “quantum threat” has far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and nation-states, as it could lead to widespread data breaches, economic disruption, and compromised national security. Despite the growing recognition of this risk, existing legal and regulatory frameworks are largely unprepared to address the unique challenges of quantum-enabled cyber threats. Moreover, the geopolitical implications of the quantum revolution are complex and multifaceted, with the potential to reshape the global balance of power and exacerbate technological inequalities. To mitigate these risks and promote quantum readiness, there is an urgent need for the international community to develop new legal frameworks and cooperative mechanisms that span technical, economic, legal, and political domains. This article provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the quantum threat to cybersecurity, examines its potential impacts across various sectors and international relations, and offers policy recommendations for developing a comprehensive global governance framework. By proactively addressing this challenge through multi-stakeholder collaboration and quantum-resistant solutions, we can work towards a more secure and resilient digital future in the face of this transformative technology. "
Quantum computing is one of the evolving fields within computer science. It leverages benefits from physics, mathematics, and quantum principles in order to develop a computer with capabilities not ever witnessed before. Such a computer is based on complex physics and is able to store and process data in units of "qubits" that enable electronics or photons to be available in more than one state simultaneously. A distinguishing characteristic of a quantum computer is its ability to perform certain calculations and solve or simulate complex problems exponentially faster than classical computers. From a governmental perspective, such a technology is a double-edged sword. A quantum computer that is able to break public-key cryptography may pose threats due to its potential to leak confidential and sensitive government information. On the other hand, quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution can lead to a secured communication where exchanged data are secured against cyber-attacks. Despite the absence of a fully realized quantum computer model, governments worldwide recognize the substantial potential of quantum technology to drive economic development and safeguard critical national security data, they have actively positioned themselves in the race to advance quantum technology. This survey reviews the research and development of several branches of quantum computing used for critical national infrastructures. It aims to map potential use cases of quantum computing with critical national infrastructure applications. The survey is divided into two main sections, namely, quantum communication and cryptography, and quantum networks, where each of these is further reviewed from different angles. This includes opportunities and challenges quantum computing can pose for governmental communications. Also, it reviews the advancement of quantum satellites and quantum drones for establishing a reliable quantum network. In addition, it touches on the use of quantum technologies within the realm of space. From the reviewed studies in this survey, it is concluded that despite the substantial effort and research in the quantum computing field, the practical integration of quantum computing into national infrastructure needs to be further studied to assess its implementation feasibility.