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Cyberthreats in a Quantum Computing-Enabled World - A Study of New Zealand’s Role and Readiness

Nicole Girvan

Published Jan 1, 2024• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

Quantum computing has the potential to impact geopolitical power balances, global economic stability, and national security. The exponentially increased power of a fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computer will threaten the security of existing cryptographic mechanisms that underpin safe online activity. Therefore, it is imperative that nations prepare for this emerging cyber risk. However, no literature currently describes how prepared New Zealand is to face quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. This research aims to close this knowledge gap by investigating how prepared critical New Zealand organisations are to face quantum computing-enabled threats. It also explores the role the New Zealand Government should play in forming global policy on quantum technology’s ethical and cybersecurity implications. Finally, this research aims to clarify the factors that will influence New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness in a quantum-enabled landscape. This qualitative study was undertaken through a lens of classical pragmatism. An interview method derived findings that reflected the lived experience of New Zealand cybersecurity and technology policy professionals and uncovered insufficient organisational preparation to address emerging quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. Document analysis found a growing global emphasis on developing quantum technology to ensure national sovereignty and security and highlighted the New Zealand Government’s need to promote international collaboration in quantum technology. The research describes global, national, and organisational readiness factors that may impact New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness and provide actionable knowledge to prepare New Zealand for a quantum computing-enabled world.

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Quantum computing has the potential to impact geopolitical power balances, global economic stability, and national security. The exponentially increased power of a fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computer will threaten the security of existing cryptographic mechanisms that underpin safe online activity. Therefore, it is imperative that nations prepare for this emerging cyber risk. However, no literature currently describes how prepared New Zealand is to face quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. This research aims to close this knowledge gap by investigating how prepared critical New Zealand organisations are to face quantum computing-enabled threats. It also explores the role the New Zealand Government should play in forming global policy on quantum technology’s ethical and cybersecurity implications. Finally, this research aims to clarify the factors that will influence New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness in a quantum-enabled landscape. This qualitative study was undertaken through a lens of classical pragmatism. An interview method derived findings that reflected the lived experience of New Zealand cybersecurity and technology policy professionals and uncovered insufficient organisational preparation to address emerging quantum computing-enabled cyber threats. Document analysis found a growing global emphasis on developing quantum technology to ensure national sovereignty and security and highlighted the New Zealand Government’s need to promote international collaboration in quantum technology. The research describes global, national, and organisational readiness factors that may impact New Zealand’s cybersecurity preparedness and provide actionable knowledge to prepare New Zealand for a quantum computing-enabled world.
"The rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to the cybersecurity of our increasingly digitized world. As quantum computers become more powerful and accessible, they have the potential to break many of the cryptographic algorithms that currently secure our sensitive data, financial transactions, and critical infrastructure. This looming “quantum threat” has far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and nation-states, as it could lead to widespread data breaches, economic disruption, and compromised national security. Despite the growing recognition of this risk, existing legal and regulatory frameworks are largely unprepared to address the unique challenges of quantum-enabled cyber threats. Moreover, the geopolitical implications of the quantum revolution are complex and multifaceted, with the potential to reshape the global balance of power and exacerbate technological inequalities. To mitigate these risks and promote quantum readiness, there is an urgent need for the international community to develop new legal frameworks and cooperative mechanisms that span technical, economic, legal, and political domains. This article provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the quantum threat to cybersecurity, examines its potential impacts across various sectors and international relations, and offers policy recommendations for developing a comprehensive global governance framework. By proactively addressing this challenge through multi-stakeholder collaboration and quantum-resistant solutions, we can work towards a more secure and resilient digital future in the face of this transformative technology. "
The 21st century is confronting profound transformations driven by emerging technologies, notably quantum computing, which promises opportunities and risks. As industries and governments invest heavily in quantum capabilities, the looming threat of quantum computers compromising current encryption schemes has prompted the exploration of postquantum systems. This research surveys quantum technologies and reviews existing and proposed quantum policies, particularly cybersecurity, to address critical policy challenges encompassing full-spectrum quantum computing development. Our retrospective literature review and prospective analysis reveal that the research and innovation trajectory involving quantum computing technologies will mature within the next decade. With geopolitical actors gaining access to cloud-based quantum computers, more stakeholders will engage with these nascent technologies, presenting new opportunities and risks. We argue that misaligned proposals, not sufficiently aligned with strategic policy, could hinder the adoption of emerging technologies and undermine national security. This thesis analyzes and addresses these issues and provides recommendations to enhance quantum computing security analysis and reshape geopolitical policies to effectively counter the imminent threats to national security.
As quantum computers advance, they will fundamentally change the ways the information systems that currently secure communications, financial systems, healthcare records, government databases and critical infrastructure are protected. Although quantum technologies offer great promise for future scientific endeavors and processing power, they also present new dangers for cybersecurity. This paper explores the threats that are emerging as a result of Quantum Computing, focusing on the vulnerability of popular public-key cryptographic methods like RSA, Diffie–Hellman and Elliptic Curve Cryptography. The study also delves into the consequences of "harvest now, decrypt later": Information encrypted today could be made available when sufficiently strong quantum computers are ready. The research adopts a qualitative approach with a thorough literature survey of scholarly works on quantum-safe security standards, international cybersecurity frameworks, and recent advancements in the field. It evaluates the readiness of organizations, governments and technology vendors to deal with the changing threats of quantum computing. The study also highlights emerging counter measures, such as post quantum cryptography, quantum key distribution, cryptographic agility, zero trust security architectures, and risk-based migration strategies to build long-term cyber resilience. The results indicate that while large-scale quantum computers are still being developed which could compromise current encryption systems, it is important to plan ahead and implement quantum-resistant technologies to mitigate future security risks. To achieve quantum-safe cybersecurity, a concerted effort is needed, involving a collaboration between policymakers, researchers, industry players and standardization organizations, to provide secure digital ecosystems. In the end, the paper argues that a blend of quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions and adaptive cybersecurity governance and continuous innovation will be a critical enabler in protecting information assets in the quantum era. The study will contribute to the existing body of work on quantum cybersecurity and provide insights into the challenges and opportunities of creating secure and future-proof cybersecurity systems.
The rapid development of quantum computing is one of the most transformative technological developments of the twenty-first century with profound implications for cybersecurity, digital governance and the future of secure communication systems. Traditional cryptographic infrastructures have fundamentally underpinned digital trust in banking, healthcare, defense, cloud computing, and global communication networks, but the advent of quantum computational power has led to increasing concern about the future of existing standards for encryption. This qualitative study critically examines the changing relationship between quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography through an analysis of the technological, institutional, ethical and governance challenges in the transition to quantum-secure digital systems. The study adopts an interpretivist and exploratory qualitative orientation that aims to understand how governments, cybersecurity experts, technology institutions and policy frameworks are responding to the disruptive potential of quantum technologies. Data were collected using thematic analysis of academic literature, cybersecurity policy documents, archival technological reviews, expert commentaries, institutional reports, and emerging case studies related to the development of quantum-resistant cryptography. The results show that quantum computing presents serious threats to existing public-key cryptographic systems, especially in terms of theoretical abilities of Shor’s algorithm and future quantum decryption models. Meanwhile, the paper outlines post-quantum cryptography as a vital avenue for safeguarding digital privacy, institutional credibility, and cybersecurity robustness in an ever more networked society. The analysis also points to ongoing challenges around technological readiness, regulatory uncertainty, global standardization, resource inequality and ethical issues around surveillance, privacy and digital sovereignty. Yet, the research points to the potential for secure digital transformation, resilient cybersecurity governance, and the re-inventing of future communication infrastructure through post-quantum innovation. The research finds that the transition to quantum-secure systems is not just a technological challenge, but a multidimensional governance and policy challenge requiring international cooperation, ethical foresight and proactive institutional change.
The emergence of quantum computing poses a transformative challenge to established cybersecurity protocols and traditional cryptographic systems, necessitating an urgent transition toward post-quantum cryptography. As quantum threats evolve from theoretical possibilities to practical risks, governments and industrial sectors are increasingly compelled to develop strategies for adopting quantum-resistant algorithms. This paper evaluates the global landscape of post-quantum security, with a specialized focus on the defense strategies adopted by technologically advanced nations. It investigates the efforts of these countries to construct quantum-resilient security architectures while addressing the distinct technical and resource constraints faced by developing nations. A primary contribution of this research is the analysis of the Industry Readiness Assessment Survey, which evaluates organizational awareness and technical preparedness within the specific context of India’s digital and regulatory environment. The findings highlight the critical importance of mitigating "harvest now, decrypt later" threats through international cooperation and the development of sovereign transition plans. By synthesizing empirical survey data with strategic policy analysis, this paper provides a roadmap for securing national interests and ensuring long-term data integrity against future quantum computational capabilities
The advent of quantum computing presents unprecedented challenges to the existing cybersecurity framework, especially in the realm of cryptographic algorithms. Current encryption methods, such as RSA and ECC, which secure sensitive data, are vulnerable to quantum-based attacks due to the capabilities of quantum algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s. This research paper explores the future of cybersecurity policy in the post-quantum era, analyzing the gaps in current policies and the need for quantum-resistant solutions. By examining emerging cryptographic algorithms, including lattice-based and hash-based cryptography, this study underscores the necessity for governments and industries to collaborate in developing post-quantum cryptographic standards. Furthermore, the paper addresses the economic and ethical considerations of transitioning to quantum-safe systems and provides case studies to illustrate the real-world implications of quantum threats on critical sectors such as finance, national security, and cloud computing. Ultimately, the study advocates for an adaptable, globally coordinated policy framework to ensure resilient cybersecurity in the quantum age.