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Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)

Quantum-Enhanced Reliability Assessment of Power Networks in Response to Wildfire Events

Gabriel San Martín Silva, Tarannom Parhizkar, Hieu Trung Nguyen, Enrique López Droguett

Published Jan 23, 2023• 8 citations
Publisher

Abstract

As the risk associated with wildfires in the western United States increases every year, it becomes fundamental to research alternatives to both improve the resilience and reliability of engineering systems against those types of events, as well as mitigate the effects that wildfire emergencies may have on human population and critical infrastructure. An often- overlooked cause of wildfire emergencies are failures in power line systems and electricity distribution networks. Given the immense number of factors that can affect the probability of a power line ignition occurring, the analysis quickly becomes intractable for traditional probabilistic inference methodologies. In this paper, a quantum-enhanced probabilistic sampling and inference application is proposed for improving the acceptance ratio of queries of the form P(Q|E = e) when compared to traditional Monte-Carlo approaches. For this purpose, the system of interest is first modeled as a Bayesian network. Then, quantum computing is used to translate that Bayesian network into an equivalent quantum circuit using a set of basic quantum gates. Finally, the sampling process is enhanced by applying a quantum protocol called Amplitude Amplification to the resulting quantum circuit. Empirical results are presented using as a case study a non-trivial six-node Bayesian network.

DOI
10.1109/rams51473.2023.10088260

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As the risk associated with wildfires in the western United States increases every year, it becomes fundamental to research alternatives to both improve the resilience and reliability of engineering systems against those types of events, as well as mitigate the effects that wildfire emergencies may have on human population and critical infrastructure. An often- overlooked cause of wildfire emergencies are failures in power line systems and electricity distribution networks. Given the immense number of factors that can affect the probability of a power line ignition occurring, the analysis quickly becomes intractable for traditional probabilistic inference methodologies. In this paper, a quantum-enhanced probabilistic sampling and inference application is proposed for improving the acceptance ratio of queries of the form P(Q|E = e) when compared to traditional Monte-Carlo approaches. For this purpose, the system of interest is first modeled as a Bayesian network. Then, quantum computing is used to translate that Bayesian network into an equivalent quantum circuit using a set of basic quantum gates. Finally, the sampling process is enhanced by applying a quantum protocol called Amplitude Amplification to the resulting quantum circuit. Empirical results are presented using as a case study a non-trivial six-node Bayesian network.
The increased availability of specialized quantum hardware has made possible the exploration of the field by the general scientific community. Enterprises such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft have launched or will launch shortly cloud quantum computing services, which will accelerate forward the development of the field even further. It is, therefore, necessary to prepare the RAMS community to harness the advantages that quantum computing may offer to our discipline. In this paper, we present a proposed application for efficient probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks using gate-based quantum computing and a quantum algorithm called Amplitude Amplification. The proposed methodology is exemplified on a non-trivial Bayesian network, composed of nodes representing discrete probability distributions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use Bayesian networks in combination with Amplitude Amplification for the risk and reliability assessment context. The results indicate that the usage of quantum computing can effectively increase the efficiency of the sampling process, decreasing the number of samples required to obtain estimates of similar quality when compared to a traditional Monte Carlo sampling approach.
Operational demands in industries, such as the energy sector, underscore the critical need for reliable equipment capable of withstanding long-term planning and unpredictable factors.Reliability assessment is important for maintaining productivity and optimizing maintenance strategies, especially in scenarios where data limitations challenge traditional assessment methods.In this context, Bayesian inference has emerged as a dynamic tool to update reliability estimates using data from various hierarchical levels.However, conventional simulation techniques may lack computational efficiency when dealing with the reliability estimation of complex systems, creating opportunities to explore alternative approaches such as quantum computation techniques.Quantum Computing leverages principles of quantum mechanics, such as superposition and entanglement, to try to address these computational challenges more effectively.Previous works have applied quantum Bayesian networks using amplitude amplification methods to the context of risk and reliability, focusing on nodes representing discrete probability distributions.This research aims to enhance this approach by incorporating continuous marginal and conditional probabilities into the analysis, which is particularly relevant for systems that rely on these distributions to model events.We explore the encoding of continuous probability distributions within the amplitude amplification framework, aiming to improve the efficiency and precision of probabilistic inference.Additionally, we apply this methodology to Bayesian networks, benchmarking the performance of quantum methods against classical simulation techniques like Monte Carlo to identify scenarios where quantum techniques demonstrate clear advantages.
The incorporation of renewable energy and the expanding size of power systems have elevated operational uncertainty, thereby raising the risk of load loss. Additionally, the analysis duration has been extended as a consequence. Swift and imperative risk assessments are vital for guaranteeing the safety and reliability of modern power systems operations. In this paper, the utilization of Quantum computing methodologies to enhance the efficiency of the risk assessment in modern power systems is explored. Two prevalent methods, namely Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian networks, are the focus of this study. The first part introduces a Quantum Monte Carlo circuit designed to analyze risk with greater efficiency compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulations commonly employed on classical computers. Moreover, the exploration of Quantum computing in Bayesian networks offers a novel approach for modeling and analyzing dependencies within power systems. The potential of Quantum computing to redefine risk assessment methodologies in the domain of power system reliability is illuminated by this research.
Abstract Studying the propagation of failure probabilities in interconnected systems such as electrical distribution networks is traditionally performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In this paper, we propose a procedure for creating a model of the system on a quantum computer using a restricted representation of Bayesian networks. We present examples of this implementation on sample models using Qiskit and test them using both quantum simulators and IBM Quantum hardware. The results show a correlation in the precision of the results when considering the number of Monte Carlo iterations alongside the sum of shots in a single quantum circuit execution.
Abstract Failure probability estimation and identifying failure paths are crucial for ensuring the reliable operation of complex systems like autonomous ships. Fault tree Analysis is a widely used method to assess potential causes of system failure. However, as system complexity increases, identifying minimal cut sets becomes computationally challenging. This study explores the use of quantum computing to overcome these limitations. By encoding fault events as qubits, quantum computing leverages superposition and entanglement to accelerate computations. We developed a quantum fault tree circuit and applied the quantum amplitude amplification (QAA) algorithm to efficiently estimate failure probabilities and identify the minimal cut sets. Using IBM’s Qiskit environment, we implemented and tested the methodology on the power system of an autonomous ship. The results demonstrate the potential of quantum computing to enhance failure risk analysis, enabling efficient assessment of large, complex systems beyond the capabilities of classical computers.
This paper explores the potential of quantum computing to accelerate Bayesian network inference. Traditional Bayesian network inference relies on iterative calculations of probability distributions, which can be computationally expensive, especially for complex networks. We propose a novel approach that leverages quantum circuits to simulate the transition probability matrices inherent in Bayesian networks. By mapping these matrices to quantum states and utilizing quantum parallelism, we aim to achieve significant speedups in inference processes. This work outlines the core concept, detailing the mapping strategy and the proposed quantum algorithm. While a full experimental implementation is not presented, this research lays a foundational framework for future investigations into quantum-enhanced Bayesian network inference. The core claim is to utilize quantum circuits to simulate Bayesian network probability transition matrices, leading to accelerated inference. The core mechanism involves mapping transition matrices to quantum states and employing quantum lines for parallel computation. This represents a new approach combining quantum computing and Bayesian networks for powerful probabilistic inference. ---