Quantum Computing: Unraveling the Hype

Jeff Kabachinski

Olivier Ezratty

We are in the midst of quantum hype with some excessive claims of quantum computing potential, many vendors' and even some research organizations' exaggerations, and a funding frenzy for very low technology readiness level startups. Governments are contributing to this hype with their large quantum initiatives and their technology sovereignty aspirations. Technology hypes are not bad per se since they create emulation, drive innovations and also contribute to attracting new talents. It works as scientists and vendors deliver progress and innovation on a continuous basis after a so-called peak of expectations. It fails with exaggerated overpromises and underdeliveries that last too long. It could cut short research and innovation funding, creating some sort of quantum winter. After looking at the shape and form of technology and science hypes and driving some lessons from past hypes, we investigate the current quantum hype and its specifics. We find that, although there is some significant uncertainty on the potential to create real scalable quantum computers, the scientific and vendor fields are relatively sane and solid compared to other technology hypes. The vendors hype has some profound and disruptive impact on the organization of fundamental research. Also, quantum technologies comprise other fields like quantum telecommunications and quantum sensing with a higher technology readiness level, which are less prone to hype. We then make some proposals to mitigate the potential negative effects of the current quantum hype including recommendations on scientific communication to strengthen the trust in quantum science, vendor behavior improvements, benchmarking methodologies, public education and putting in place a responsible research and innovation approach.

Stefano Patarnello

Hiroyuki Mizuno

This paper describes the current state of quantum computer development in the world (including the hype) from three perspectives and introduces our research and development of quantum computers. The first is the complex market structure. While investments in quantum computers are increasing, these investments do not always immediately bring value to consumers, and this delay results in hype. CMOS annealing technology to fill this delay is described. The second is the accountability of the impact produced by a quantum computer that does not yet exist. This paper discusses why so many people continue to question the value of quantum computers despite their clear applications, and our struggles. The third is technology development, which includes many research aspects. This paper introduces our top-down approach that takes full advantage of semiconductor technologies. Some of our activities including “Shuttling qubit” for the next milestone in the development of silicon quantum computers, which is qubit operation in a scalable qubit array structure, are also described.

Andreas H. Trabesinger

Honor Powrie

Are you baffled by quantum computers and bemused by what they could do? Honor Powrie offers her personal perspective about these devices and their current potential.