On September 15, Jay Gambetta published a blog post on "IBM's Roadmap for scaling quantum technology" [1].Gambetta is an IBM Fellow and Vice President, IBM Quantum.In contrast to roadmaps, example, for semiconductor development, this roadmap is limited to a perspective for the next four years.Nevertheless, the presented steps toward the commercialization of IBM's quantum computers are ambitious.Gambetta compares the development of quantum computers with the effort of the moon landing in 1969.Given the multibillion funding initiatives which are currently exercised in various countries he might be right.It took huge amounts of money to take a few men to the moon and to bring them back safely.Similarly, it may take large investments in research and development to get to, as Gambetta says, "the million-plus qubit devices of the future".IBM is one of the few large nonegovernmental players (such as Google) who embark on such a development.
On September 15, Jay Gambetta published a blog post on "IBM's Roadmap for scaling quantum technology" [1].Gambetta is an IBM Fellow and Vice President, IBM Quantum.In contrast to roadmaps, example, for semiconductor development, this roadmap is limited to a perspective for the next four years.Nevertheless, the presented steps toward the commercialization of IBM's quantum computers are ambitious.Gambetta compares the development of quantum computers with the effort of the moon landing in 1969.Given the multibillion funding initiatives which are currently exercised in various countries he might be right.It took huge amounts of money to take a few men to the moon and to bring them back safely.Similarly, it may take large investments in research and development to get to, as Gambetta says, "the million-plus qubit devices of the future".IBM is one of the few large nonegovernmental players (such as Google) who embark on such a development.
Quantum computation is not an imminent achievement . We will not wake up tomorrow and find quantum computers on our desks. At the time of this writing, IBM has just unveiled the Condor – a chip containing 1,121 superconducting qubits. This number will likely increase (perhaps spectacularly) in the near future. However, the qubits have a relatively large error rate and, in the absence of a breakthrough advance that significantly lowers this rate, one would need hundreds of physical qubits to realize an error-corrected logical qubit. Predicting how long it will take to achieve the controlled manipulation of thousands of (logical) qubits (i.e., a number of qubits consistent with the “useful” implementation of known quantum algorithms) is probably not a rational undertaking, at least for a scientist. The most pessimistic experts regard the lively research activity in quantum computation as a waste of time and resources. But the pervading mood in this field is one of cautious optimism, particularly considering the possibility of achieving useful tasks (e.g., simulating quantum systems) with a sufficiently large number of “imperfect” qubits. Expediency may be responsible for some of this optimism; a good feeling about the prospects for quantum computation certainly helps when it comes to publishing papers and getting funded. Ultimately, however, the responsibility for the wise distribution of resources rests with the funding agencies; scientists, on the other hand, are called to explore every aspect of real and possible worlds that looks fascinating and worthy of their curiosity. From this perspective, quantum computation (defined broadly) offers plenty of opportunities for producing “good science.” The problems brought to the fore by the development of this field range from basic questions regarding the foundations of quantum mechanics and unsolved problems in computational complexity, to the investigation of new phases of matter (e.g., topological quantum phases), the quest for “complete” control over quantum systems, and the critical need for significant advances in materials science and device fabrication (e.g., engineering nanoscale heterostructures with atomic precision). Progress in these areas will naturally open new possibilities for interesting applications. Precisely identifying these applications is premature, but building a (general purpose) quantum computer will not necessarily be among the first of them.
Our romance with new technologies always seems to follow the same trajectory: We are by turns mesmerized and adoring, disappointed and disheartened, and end up settling for less than we originally imagined. In 1954, Texas Instruments touted its new transistors as bringing "electronic “brains” approaching the human brain in scope and reliability" much closer to reality. In 2000, U.S. president Bill Clinton declared that the Human Genome Project would lead to a world in which "our children's children will know the term cancer only as a constellation of stars." And so it is now with quantum computing. ¶The popular press is awash with articles touting its promise. Tech giants are pouring huge amounts of money into building prototypes. You get the distinct impression that the computer industry is on the verge of an imminent quantum revolution. ¶But not everyone believes that quantum computing is going to solve real-world problems in anything like the time frame that some proponents of the technology want us to believe. Indeed, many of the researchers involved acknowledge the hype has gotten out of control, cautioning that quantum computing may take decades to mature. ¶Theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov, a researcher for many years at Ioffe Institute, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and now at the University of Montpellier, in France, is even more skeptical. In "The Case Against Quantum Computing," on p. 24 of this issue, he lays out his view that practical general-purpose quantum computers will not be built anytime in the foreseeable future. ¶As you might expect, his essay ruffled some feathers after it was published online. But as it turns out, while his article was being prepared, a committee assembled by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine had been grappling with the very same question.
Quantum science and technology are poised to revolutionize industries worldwide, and nations across the globe are investing heavily in advancing quantum computing. Leading this charge is IBM Quantum, which has made significant strides in transforming quantum computation from theoretical constructs to practical realities by building the world's first quantum computers. Through cloud access, IBM has democratized quantum computing, enabling anyone with an internet connection to explore this cutting-edge technology. This perspective paper offers a global perspective on the potential applications of quantum computing across various domains. From healthcare and life sciences to chemistry, materials science, and agriculture, IBM, in collaboration with its Academic and Industrial partners, is conducting groundbreaking research to harness the power of quantum computing for solving complex problems. This article also provides an overview of the learning opportunities IBM offers to users at all levels, as well as efforts to develop middleware solutions that ensure a seamless user experience on quantum platforms. By shedding light on the current state of art in quantum computing and its potential impact, this paper aims to inspire researchers worldwide to contribute to this transformative field, accelerating the global momentum towards a quantum-powered future.
Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, offering the potential to transform computational paradigms and tackle problems that are intractable for classical systems. Realizing practical quantum systems demands the development of an entirely new computing stack—from qubits and quantum processors to components, wiring and control electronics, transpilers, error handling, software, algorithms, and the compute architecture to integrate quantum and classical resources at scale. This plenary will provide an overview of the current state of quantum computing and outline the milestones on the path toward building a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. The significant improvements in hardware, software, and system integration, pushing the performance of quantum computing to reach quantum utility and advance toward quantum advantage, will be presented. Breakthroughs in error correction and a modular approach indicated in the IBM Quantum Roadmap outline a clear path to quantum systems using 200 logical qubits and 100 million quantum operations by 2029 and 2,000 logical qubits a few years later. Furthermore, advances in quantum algorithms, combined with the integration of quantum systems and high-performance computing (HPC), will unlock powerful synergies—accelerating the timeline for applications previously considered to be far in the future.
Quantum computers, if fully realized, promise to be a revolutionary technology. As a result, quantum computing has become one of the hottest areas of research in the last few years. Much effort is being applied at all levels of the system stack, from the creation of quantum algorithms to the development of hardware devices. The quantum age appears to be arriving sooner rather than later as commercially useful small-to-medium sized machines have already been built. However, full-scale quantum computers, and the full-scale algorithms they would perform, remain out of reach for now. It is currently uncertain how the first such computer will be built. Many different technologies are competing to be the first scalable quantum computer.