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IEEE Spectrum

Quantum computing's prospects: How long will it be before we see practical quantum-computing machines? - [Spectral Lines]

David A. Schneider, Susan Hassler

Published Feb 25, 2019• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Our romance with new technologies always seems to follow the same trajectory: We are by turns mesmerized and adoring, disappointed and disheartened, and end up settling for less than we originally imagined. In 1954, Texas Instruments touted its new transistors as bringing "electronic “brains” approaching the human brain in scope and reliability" much closer to reality. In 2000, U.S. president Bill Clinton declared that the Human Genome Project would lead to a world in which "our children's children will know the term cancer only as a constellation of stars." And so it is now with quantum computing. ¶The popular press is awash with articles touting its promise. Tech giants are pouring huge amounts of money into building prototypes. You get the distinct impression that the computer industry is on the verge of an imminent quantum revolution. ¶But not everyone believes that quantum computing is going to solve real-world problems in anything like the time frame that some proponents of the technology want us to believe. Indeed, many of the researchers involved acknowledge the hype has gotten out of control, cautioning that quantum computing may take decades to mature. ¶Theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov, a researcher for many years at Ioffe Institute, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and now at the University of Montpellier, in France, is even more skeptical. In "The Case Against Quantum Computing," on p. 24 of this issue, he lays out his view that practical general-purpose quantum computers will not be built anytime in the foreseeable future. ¶As you might expect, his essay ruffled some feathers after it was published online. But as it turns out, while his article was being prepared, a committee assembled by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine had been grappling with the very same question.

DOI
10.1109/mspec.2019.8651917

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Our romance with new technologies always seems to follow the same trajectory: We are by turns mesmerized and adoring, disappointed and disheartened, and end up settling for less than we originally imagined. In 1954, Texas Instruments touted its new transistors as bringing "electronic “brains” approaching the human brain in scope and reliability" much closer to reality. In 2000, U.S. president Bill Clinton declared that the Human Genome Project would lead to a world in which "our children's children will know the term cancer only as a constellation of stars." And so it is now with quantum computing. ¶The popular press is awash with articles touting its promise. Tech giants are pouring huge amounts of money into building prototypes. You get the distinct impression that the computer industry is on the verge of an imminent quantum revolution. ¶But not everyone believes that quantum computing is going to solve real-world problems in anything like the time frame that some proponents of the technology want us to believe. Indeed, many of the researchers involved acknowledge the hype has gotten out of control, cautioning that quantum computing may take decades to mature. ¶Theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov, a researcher for many years at Ioffe Institute, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and now at the University of Montpellier, in France, is even more skeptical. In "The Case Against Quantum Computing," on p. 24 of this issue, he lays out his view that practical general-purpose quantum computers will not be built anytime in the foreseeable future. ¶As you might expect, his essay ruffled some feathers after it was published online. But as it turns out, while his article was being prepared, a committee assembled by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine had been grappling with the very same question.
Computer scientists and engineers have started down a road that could one day lead to a momentous transition: from deterministic computing systems, based on classical physics, to quantum computing systems, which exploit the weird and wacky probabilistic rules of quantum physics. Many commentators have pointed out that if engineers are able to fashion practical quantum computers, there will be a tectonic shift in the sort of computations that become possible ¶ But that's a big if. ¶ Quantum computers hold great theoretical promise, sure, but the hurdles that need to be overcome to build practical machines are enormous. Some skeptics have argued that the technical challenges are so immense that it's very unlikely that general-purpose quantum computers will become available anytime in the foreseeable future. Others, including the engineers now working very hard to build these machines at Google, IBM, Intel, and elsewhere, are more sanguine, anticipating that 5 or 10 more years of work may be enough to bring the first practical general-purpose quantum computers on line. Only time will tell. ≫
Quantum Computing often described as one of the most exciting frontiers of modern science—a field that does not just push the boundaries of technology but also reshapes how we think about solving problems. Unlike classical computers, which process information in simple 0s and 1s, quantum mechanics, allowing a single qubit to explore multiple possibilities at the same time. This gives them the potential to perform calculations that would take even today’s most powerful supercomputers thousands of years. In recent years, progress has been rapid, with breakthroughs in hardware, algorithms and applications that range from developing new medicines to strengthening artificial intelligence and tackling climate change. Yet, enormous challenges remain, such as stabilizing fragile qubits, reducing error rates, and making these systems accessible beyond a handful of elite labs. This paper explores both the promises and the pitfalls of quantum computing, offering a closer look at how it could reshape industries, global security and even the pace of human innovation in the decades ahead.
Quantum computing isn't merely another step forward in technology; it represents a leap into an entirely new paradigm for understanding information. By harnessing the strange but powerful principles of quantum mechanics, quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states at once, connect instantly through entanglement, and solve certain problems far faster than any classical machine. This paper explores the fundamentals of quantum computing, from its theoretical roots to the breakthroughs and setbacks shaping its present. We examine the engineering and scientific challenges - from fragile qubits to daunting scalability issues - and the immense promise they hold for fields like cryptography, artificial intelligence, drug discovery, and materials science. Finally, we consider the future impact of this technology, both its opportunities and its risks, and how it may redefine industries, research methods, and even our approach to solving humanity's hardest problems. The purpose of this paper is to examine the fundamental principles, developmental trajectory, current challenges, and prospective impacts of quantum computing across scientific, industrial, and societal domains. Given its potential to reshape computational capabilities and address complex global challenges, this study holds significance for researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders seeking to understand and navigate the transition toward quantum technologies.
Quantum Computing IS ALL THE RAGE. It seems like hardly a day goes by without some news outlet describing the extraordinary things this technology promises. Most commentators forget, or just gloss over, the fact that people have been working on quantum computing for decades-and without any practical results to show for it. t IBM notes that quantum computers could "provide breakthroughs in many disciplines, including materials and drug discovery, the optimization of complex systems, and artificial intelligence." Microsoft assures us that quantum computers will "forever alter our economic, industrial, academic, and societal landscape." And journalists repeatedly warn that quantum computers may soon break the encryption that protects the Internet. It has gotten to the point where many researchers in various fields of physics feel obliged to justify whatever work they are doing by claiming that it has some relevance to quantum computing.
A happy accident in the laboratory has led to a breakthrough discovery that not only solved a problem that stood for more than half a century, but has major implications for the development of quantum computers and sensors. [55] Significant technical and financial issues remain towards building a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer and one is unlikely to be built within the coming decade. [54] Chemists at Friedrich Schiller University in Jena (Germany) have now synthesised a molecule that can perform the function of a computing unit in a quantum computer. [53] The research team developed the first optical microchip to generate, manipulate and detect a particular state of light called squeezed vacuum, which is essential for HYPERLINK https://phys.org/tags/quantum/ quantum computation. [52] Australian scientists have investigated new directions to scale up qubits-utilising the spin-orbit coupling of atom qubits-adding a new suite of tools to the armory. [51] A team of international researchers led by engineers from the National University of Singapore (NUS) have invented a new magnetic device to manipulate digital information 20 times more efficiently and with 10 times more stability than commercial spintronic digital memories. [50] Working in the lab of Mikhail Lukin, the George Vasmer Leverett Professor of Physics and co-director of the Quantum Science and Engineering Initiative, Evans is lead author of a study, described in the journal Science, that demonstrates a method for engineering an interaction between two qubits using photons. [49] Researchers with the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory have demonstrated a new level of control over photons encoded with quantum information. [48] Researchers from Intel Corp. and the University of California, Berkeley, are looking beyond current transistor technology and preparing the way for a new type of memory and logic circuit that could someday be in every computer on the planet. [47]
The quantum race is on and the hype around quantum computing is only exceeded by artificial intelligence (AI). Tech giants, multinational corporations, and startups across a wide range of sectors, and even governments are betting on quantum technology, collaborating and competing to gain power that comes with having access to a quantum computer that can hopefully solve complex and relevant problems. But what is a quantum computer? How does it differ from a classical computer and why is it so difficult to build one? How could the realisation of such a mysterious machine represent power? Can quantum computing learn anything from the field of AI? This article answers these questions in a concise form without assuming any advanced knowledge in physics.