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IEEE Spectrum

When will useful quantum computers be constructed? Not in the foreseeable future, this physicist argues. Here's why: The case against: Quantum computing

M. I. Dyakonov

Published Feb 25, 2019• 47 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Quantum Computing IS ALL THE RAGE. It seems like hardly a day goes by without some news outlet describing the extraordinary things this technology promises. Most commentators forget, or just gloss over, the fact that people have been working on quantum computing for decades-and without any practical results to show for it. t IBM notes that quantum computers could "provide breakthroughs in many disciplines, including materials and drug discovery, the optimization of complex systems, and artificial intelligence." Microsoft assures us that quantum computers will "forever alter our economic, industrial, academic, and societal landscape." And journalists repeatedly warn that quantum computers may soon break the encryption that protects the Internet. It has gotten to the point where many researchers in various fields of physics feel obliged to justify whatever work they are doing by claiming that it has some relevance to quantum computing.

DOI
10.1109/mspec.2019.8651931

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Quantum Computing IS ALL THE RAGE. It seems like hardly a day goes by without some news outlet describing the extraordinary things this technology promises. Most commentators forget, or just gloss over, the fact that people have been working on quantum computing for decades-and without any practical results to show for it. t IBM notes that quantum computers could "provide breakthroughs in many disciplines, including materials and drug discovery, the optimization of complex systems, and artificial intelligence." Microsoft assures us that quantum computers will "forever alter our economic, industrial, academic, and societal landscape." And journalists repeatedly warn that quantum computers may soon break the encryption that protects the Internet. It has gotten to the point where many researchers in various fields of physics feel obliged to justify whatever work they are doing by claiming that it has some relevance to quantum computing.
The digital age's unrelenting quest for computational superiority has given rise to the disruptive technology known as quantum computing, which has the potential to completely alter a number of sectors. This study explores the mysterious realm of quantum computing with the goal of clarifying its status, promise, and the many difficulties that still remain. The study starts with a thorough discussion of the fundamental ideas of quantum physics, illuminating the special properties of quantum bits, or qubits, that underlie the capability of quantum computing. Then, we provide a critical review of the current state of quantum computing, examining the various strategies and technologies, ranging from topological to superconducting qubits, and emphasizing the developments in quantum hardware and algorithms. We examine the various uses of quantum computing, from drug discovery to cryptography, optimization to artificial intelligence, and we emphasize the disruptive potential of this technology in these fields. In this look into the future, we examine quantum computing's prospects and its ability to change industries. The adoption timescale is discussed, along with the short- and long-term effects they may have, and the socioeconomic effects of widespread quantum computer use are considered. The future of quantum computing is examined indepth in this study article, which highlights both the fascinating promise and the complex problems it will have to solve. It is crucial to comprehend the trajectory of this emerging technology and the enormous changes it may spawn across multiple industries as the world prepares for the quantum revolution. These changes might eventually reshape the fabric of our digital life.
Our romance with new technologies always seems to follow the same trajectory: We are by turns mesmerized and adoring, disappointed and disheartened, and end up settling for less than we originally imagined. In 1954, Texas Instruments touted its new transistors as bringing "electronic “brains” approaching the human brain in scope and reliability" much closer to reality. In 2000, U.S. president Bill Clinton declared that the Human Genome Project would lead to a world in which "our children's children will know the term cancer only as a constellation of stars." And so it is now with quantum computing. ¶The popular press is awash with articles touting its promise. Tech giants are pouring huge amounts of money into building prototypes. You get the distinct impression that the computer industry is on the verge of an imminent quantum revolution. ¶But not everyone believes that quantum computing is going to solve real-world problems in anything like the time frame that some proponents of the technology want us to believe. Indeed, many of the researchers involved acknowledge the hype has gotten out of control, cautioning that quantum computing may take decades to mature. ¶Theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov, a researcher for many years at Ioffe Institute, in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and now at the University of Montpellier, in France, is even more skeptical. In "The Case Against Quantum Computing," on p. 24 of this issue, he lays out his view that practical general-purpose quantum computers will not be built anytime in the foreseeable future. ¶As you might expect, his essay ruffled some feathers after it was published online. But as it turns out, while his article was being prepared, a committee assembled by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine had been grappling with the very same question.
Quantum computing isn't merely another step forward in technology; it represents a leap into an entirely new paradigm for understanding information. By harnessing the strange but powerful principles of quantum mechanics, quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states at once, connect instantly through entanglement, and solve certain problems far faster than any classical machine. This paper explores the fundamentals of quantum computing, from its theoretical roots to the breakthroughs and setbacks shaping its present. We examine the engineering and scientific challenges - from fragile qubits to daunting scalability issues - and the immense promise they hold for fields like cryptography, artificial intelligence, drug discovery, and materials science. Finally, we consider the future impact of this technology, both its opportunities and its risks, and how it may redefine industries, research methods, and even our approach to solving humanity's hardest problems. The purpose of this paper is to examine the fundamental principles, developmental trajectory, current challenges, and prospective impacts of quantum computing across scientific, industrial, and societal domains. Given its potential to reshape computational capabilities and address complex global challenges, this study holds significance for researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders seeking to understand and navigate the transition toward quantum technologies.
Companies such as Intel as a pioneer in chip design for computing are pushing the edge of computing from its present Classical Computing generation to the next generation of Quantum Computing. Along the side of Intel corporation, companies such as IBM, Microsoft, and Google are also playing in this domain. The race is on to build the world’s first meaningful quantum computer—one that can deliver the technology’s long-promised ability to help scientists do things like develop miraculous new materials, encrypt data with near-perfect security and accurately predict how Earth’s climate will change. Such a machine is likely more than a decade away, but IBM, Microsoft, Google, Intel, and other tech heavyweights breathlessly tout each tiny, incremental step along the way. Most of these milestones involve packing more quantum bits, or qubits—the basic unit of information in a quantum computer—onto a processor chip ever. But the path to quantum computing involves far more than wrangling subatomic particles. Such computing capabilities are opening a new area into dealing with the massive sheer volume of structured and unstructured data in the form of Big Data, is an excellent augmentation to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and would allow it to thrive to its next generation of Super Artificial Intelligence (SAI) in the near-term time frame.
Companies such as Intel as a pioneer in chip design for computing are pushing the edge of computing from its present Classical Computing generation to the next generation of Quantum Computing. Along the side of Intel corporation, companies such as IBM, Microsoft, and Google are also playing in this domain. The race is on to build the world’s first meaningful quantum computer—one that can deliver the technology’s long-promised ability to help scientists do things like develop miraculous new materials, encrypt data with near-perfect security and accurately predict how Earth’s climate will change. Such a machine is likely more than a decade away, but IBM, Microsoft, Google, Intel, and other tech heavyweights breathlessly tout each tiny, incremental step along the way. Most of these milestones involve packing more quantum bits, or qubits—the basic unit of information in a quantum computer—onto a processor chip ever. But the path to quantum computing involves far more than wrangling subatomic particles. Such computing capabilities are opening a new area into dealing with the massive sheer volume of structured and unstructured data in the form of Big Data, is an excellent augmentation to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and would allow it to thrive to its next generation of Super Artificial Intelligence (SAI) in the near-term time frame