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Quantum Reports

Application of Quantum Cognition to Judgments for Medical Decisions

Sheng Yi, Meijuan Lu, Jerome R. Busemeyer

Published Apr 19, 2022• 3 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The psychology of judgment and decision making can provide useful guidance to the task of medical decision making. More specifically, we describe how a new approach to judgment and decisions, based on quantum probability theory, can shed new light on seemingly irrational judgments, as well as indicate ways to ameliorate these judgment errors. Five different types of probability judgment errors that occur in medical decisions are reviewed. For each one, we provide a simple account using theory from quantum cognition. We conclude by drawing the implications of quantum cognition for ameliorating these common medical probability judgment errors.

DOI
10.3390/quantum4020013

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The psychology of judgment and decision making can provide useful guidance to the task of medical decision making. More specifically, we describe how a new approach to judgment and decisions, based on quantum probability theory, can shed new light on seemingly irrational judgments, as well as indicate ways to ameliorate these judgment errors. Five different types of probability judgment errors that occur in medical decisions are reviewed. For each one, we provide a simple account using theory from quantum cognition. We conclude by drawing the implications of quantum cognition for ameliorating these common medical probability judgment errors.
How can we use quantum theory to model other phenomena of interest to researchers in cognition and decision making? Quantum theory is not easy for researchers in cognition and decision making to accept. In fact, quantum mechanics was not easy for physicists to accept either, but it was forced on them by several paradoxical findings that could not be explained using classical physics. We have a similar problem in cognition and decision making – there are numerous paradoxical findings that just seem irrational according to classic probability theory. For example, under some conditions, people judge the probability of event A and B to be greater than the probability of event B , which is called the conjunction fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). Also, under the same conditions, they judge the probability of A or B to be less than the probability of event A (Carlson & Yates, 1989), which is called the disjunction fallacy. In this chapter we examine how quantum probability theory explains these and other puzzling results from human probability judgment research. This chapter has two main parts. In the first part, we use a quantum model to derive qualitative predictions for conjunction errors, disjunction errors, and other closely related findings. The first section provides a general set of predictions that do not depend on specific assumptions about the features used to represent events, and the predictions are parameter free. In the second part, we examine the quantitative predictions of the quantum model for a Bayesian inference task, which we use to explain order effects on inference.
The quantum cognition research programme concerns the application of quantum probability theory(the rules for how to assign probabilities to events from quantum mechanics, without the physics) tocognitive modeling. We review quantum cognitive models in several areas of psychology, includingconjunction/ disjunction fallacies in probabilistic judgment, conceptual combinations, similarity, order effects on judgments, causal inference, the disjunction effect in decision making, measurement and interference effects on judgments and decisions, memory, perception, and other judgment anddecision-making applications. For each area, we first present the empirical findings that have motivated the application of quantum models, emphasizing any characteristics which are particularly puzzling or have resisted coherent theoretical explanations previously; we then discuss the quantum cognitive models, noting the key features of the models that help explain the empirical data; we finally cast a critical eye on the models and explore comparisons with non-quantum models.
Quantum probability theory provides a new formalism for constructing probabilistic and dynamic systems of cognition and decision. The purpose of this chapter is to introduce psychologists to this fascinating theory. This chapter is organized into six sections. First, some of the basic psychological principles supporting a quantum approach to cognition and decision are summarized; second, some notations and definitions needed to understand quantum probability theory are presented; third, a comparison of quantum and classical probability theories is presented; fourth, quantum probability theory is used to account for some paradoxical findings in the field of human probability judgments; fifth, a comparison of quantum and Markov dynamic theories is presented; and finally, a quantum dynamic model is used to account for some puzzling findings of decision-making research. The chapter concludes with a summary of advantages and disadvantages of a quantum probability theoretical framework for modeling cognition and decision.
Quantum theory has inspired many new ideas for understanding Cognition and decision making. Given the nascent state of this field, many new challenges still remain. What are the strengths and unique contributions of these ideas? What are likely next steps in its development? How can it be applied to practical problems in cognitive science? Is this a rational or an irrational system of reasoning? What, if any, are its connections to neuroscience? Should the hard problem of consciousness be considered? These are questions that we try to address in this chapter, albeit at times in a limited way. We end with a debate with a fictitious skeptic (actually previous reviewers) of these ideas. Let us start by reviewing what we have covered so far. Contributions to cognition and decision We begin by summarizing the conclusions reached in previous chapters regarding the usefulness of quantum theory for modelling phenomena in cognition and decision. Chapter 1 provided some motivation and Chapter 2 provided a theoretical introduction to quantum theory. Chapter 3 presented a quantum model to account for question order effects on survey research. An exact and parameter-free test was derived from the model, which produced surprisingly accurate predictions for results obtained from three different large Gallup poll survey studies. Chapter 4 described a quantum model of probability judgments to account for findings that produce violations of classic probability theory, including conjunction and disjunction fallacies and order effects on inference.
A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector spaces defined by features and similarities between vectors to determine probability judgments. On the other hand, quantum probability theory is a generalization of Bayesian probability theory because it is based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms that relax some of the classic (Kolmogorov) axioms. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors, including the anchoring and adjustment model for probability judgments. In the quantum model, a new fundamental concept in cognition is advanced--the compatibility versus incompatibility of questions and the effect this can have on the sequential order of judgments. We conclude that quantum information-processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning.