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Cambridge University Press eBooks

What are the future prospects for quantum cognition and decision?

Jerome R. Busemeyer, Peter Bruza

Published Jul 26, 2012• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Quantum theory has inspired many new ideas for understanding Cognition and decision making. Given the nascent state of this field, many new challenges still remain. What are the strengths and unique contributions of these ideas? What are likely next steps in its development? How can it be applied to practical problems in cognitive science? Is this a rational or an irrational system of reasoning? What, if any, are its connections to neuroscience? Should the hard problem of consciousness be considered? These are questions that we try to address in this chapter, albeit at times in a limited way. We end with a debate with a fictitious skeptic (actually previous reviewers) of these ideas. Let us start by reviewing what we have covered so far. Contributions to cognition and decision We begin by summarizing the conclusions reached in previous chapters regarding the usefulness of quantum theory for modelling phenomena in cognition and decision. Chapter 1 provided some motivation and Chapter 2 provided a theoretical introduction to quantum theory. Chapter 3 presented a quantum model to account for question order effects on survey research. An exact and parameter-free test was derived from the model, which produced surprisingly accurate predictions for results obtained from three different large Gallup poll survey studies. Chapter 4 described a quantum model of probability judgments to account for findings that produce violations of classic probability theory, including conjunction and disjunction fallacies and order effects on inference.

DOI
10.1017/cbo9780511997716.013

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Quantum theory has inspired many new ideas for understanding Cognition and decision making. Given the nascent state of this field, many new challenges still remain. What are the strengths and unique contributions of these ideas? What are likely next steps in its development? How can it be applied to practical problems in cognitive science? Is this a rational or an irrational system of reasoning? What, if any, are its connections to neuroscience? Should the hard problem of consciousness be considered? These are questions that we try to address in this chapter, albeit at times in a limited way. We end with a debate with a fictitious skeptic (actually previous reviewers) of these ideas. Let us start by reviewing what we have covered so far. Contributions to cognition and decision We begin by summarizing the conclusions reached in previous chapters regarding the usefulness of quantum theory for modelling phenomena in cognition and decision. Chapter 1 provided some motivation and Chapter 2 provided a theoretical introduction to quantum theory. Chapter 3 presented a quantum model to account for question order effects on survey research. An exact and parameter-free test was derived from the model, which produced surprisingly accurate predictions for results obtained from three different large Gallup poll survey studies. Chapter 4 described a quantum model of probability judgments to account for findings that produce violations of classic probability theory, including conjunction and disjunction fallacies and order effects on inference.
Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum probability theory offers a set of principles for inference, which align well with intuition about psychological processes in certain cases: cases when it appears that inference is contextual, the mental state changes as a result of previous judgments, or there is interference between different possibilities. We motivate the use of quantum theory in cognition and its key characteristics. For each of these characteristics, we review relevant quantum cognitive models and empirical support. The scope of quantum cognitive models encompasses fallacies in decision-making (such as the conjunction fallacy or the disjunction effect), question order effects, conceptual combination, evidence accumulation, perception, over-/underdistribution effects in memory, and more. Quantum models often formalize psychological ideas previously expressed in heuristic terms, allow unified explanations of previously disparate findings, and have led to several surprising, novel predictions. We also cast a critical eye on quantum models and consider some of their shortcomings and issues regarding their further development.
How can we use quantum theory to model other phenomena of interest to researchers in cognition and decision making? Quantum theory is not easy for researchers in cognition and decision making to accept. In fact, quantum mechanics was not easy for physicists to accept either, but it was forced on them by several paradoxical findings that could not be explained using classical physics. We have a similar problem in cognition and decision making – there are numerous paradoxical findings that just seem irrational according to classic probability theory. For example, under some conditions, people judge the probability of event A and B to be greater than the probability of event B , which is called the conjunction fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). Also, under the same conditions, they judge the probability of A or B to be less than the probability of event A (Carlson & Yates, 1989), which is called the disjunction fallacy. In this chapter we examine how quantum probability theory explains these and other puzzling results from human probability judgment research. This chapter has two main parts. In the first part, we use a quantum model to derive qualitative predictions for conjunction errors, disjunction errors, and other closely related findings. The first section provides a general set of predictions that do not depend on specific assumptions about the features used to represent events, and the predictions are parameter free. In the second part, we examine the quantitative predictions of the quantum model for a Bayesian inference task, which we use to explain order effects on inference.
The quantum cognition research programme concerns the application of quantum probability theory(the rules for how to assign probabilities to events from quantum mechanics, without the physics) tocognitive modeling. We review quantum cognitive models in several areas of psychology, includingconjunction/ disjunction fallacies in probabilistic judgment, conceptual combinations, similarity, order effects on judgments, causal inference, the disjunction effect in decision making, measurement and interference effects on judgments and decisions, memory, perception, and other judgment anddecision-making applications. For each area, we first present the empirical findings that have motivated the application of quantum models, emphasizing any characteristics which are particularly puzzling or have resisted coherent theoretical explanations previously; we then discuss the quantum cognitive models, noting the key features of the models that help explain the empirical data; we finally cast a critical eye on the models and explore comparisons with non-quantum models.
Quantum probability theory provides a new formalism for constructing probabilistic and dynamic systems of cognition and decision. The purpose of this chapter is to introduce psychologists to this fascinating theory. This chapter is organized into six sections. First, some of the basic psychological principles supporting a quantum approach to cognition and decision are summarized; second, some notations and definitions needed to understand quantum probability theory are presented; third, a comparison of quantum and classical probability theories is presented; fourth, quantum probability theory is used to account for some paradoxical findings in the field of human probability judgments; fifth, a comparison of quantum and Markov dynamic theories is presented; and finally, a quantum dynamic model is used to account for some puzzling findings of decision-making research. The chapter concludes with a summary of advantages and disadvantages of a quantum probability theoretical framework for modeling cognition and decision.
Cognitive Science is the study of the mind and how it relates to human behaviour. As a field, it is highly interdisciplinary, bringing together theories from Psychology, Neuroscience, Biology, and others. The field of cognitive science operates at a number of levels. On the one hand, some aspects of cognitive science look at the behaviour of neurons, whereas other aspects look to explain human behaviour at a more abstract level, seeking to explain human decision making or reasoning. A key area of research in cognitive science is how to formalise human behaviours around judgements of similarity, categorization, and decision making. In the field of Physics, Quantum Mechanics has fundamentally altered our understanding of the way in which particles behave. Quantum mechanics has a number of unintuitive phenomena, some of which can be used model unusual aspects of human behaviour. The application of quantum theory to model human behaviour is wide-ranging. In this chapter we will look at three main areas in which it has been applied. One key area is in how similarity judgements can be modelled. There are a number of phenomena around similarity judgements that are not well modelled using a view of concepts that does not take the state of the observer into account. These include the asymmetry of similarity judgements and the fact that similarity can change depending on other exemplars that are present. Another key area is in judgement and decision-making. Again, puzzling phenomena have been observed regarding the fact that judgements do not follow classical probability theory, known as the conjunction fallacy, can depend crucially on the order in which questions are presented or on the amount of knowledge about the world. Finally, approaches to modelling cognitive phenomena at the neural level will also be discussed within a quantum-theoretic framework.
ABSTRACT Recent advances at the intersection of quantum physics, neuroscience, and cognitive science have renewed interest in whether quantum phenomena and quantum‐inspired formalisms can inform models of human cognition and decision‐making. While classical neural and computational models explain many aspects of perception and behavior, they face limitations in accounting for contextuality, order effects, probabilistic reasoning violations, ambiguity resolution, and rapid information integration. This review synthesizes evidence and theoretical frameworks linking quantum‐related principles to cognition, with emphasis on quantum sensing in biological systems, molecular and subcellular quantum‐relevant mechanisms, quantum‐to‐classical transition pathways, quantum‐inspired models of perception and decision‐making, and quantum‐inspired computational approaches. It also extends beyond the probabilistic arm of quantum cognition by considering emerging equilibrium‐based and causal‐logical theories, including mental equilibrium, brain‐universe similarity, mind‐light‐matter unity, quantum emergence, and quantum intelligence. Throughout, the review distinguishes physically instantiated quantum mechanisms from abstract quantum‐like formalisms that model contextuality, mental entanglement, and non‐separable cognitive dynamics without requiring sustained macroscopic quantum coherence in the brain. Finally, it identifies methodological challenges and future directions for advancing quantum cognitive science toward experimentally testable and biologically meaningful theories.