AbstractWith the advent of quantum technology and its development and accelerating progress, in the near future, we will witness a new technological revolution and major changes in the various fields of science and technology that will transform the industrial, economic, political, military and cultural equations and relationships. In the meantime, the topic of electronic warfare due to being technology-driven will be greatly affected by these advances. And the essence of future electronic wars will change.Therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze the opportunities and challenges with foresight and scenario writing and propose ways to counter them. Accordingly, in this study, using credible articles and sources, first, information on various types of stealth techniques and ways to counter them, then the capabilities of leading countries in the field of stealth aircraft as an offensive force and other forces as a defense force was presented and the future of this technology has been studied to the year 1410 SH. After analyzing the data and interviewing with the experts of this field, key factors and driving forces were identified. using scenario writing techniques with the help of scenario wizard software, three more likely scenarios in the form of pessimistic, moderate and optimistic were named smoked scenario, the transition stage scenario, and the quantum age scenario, respectively which were presented at the end of the paper.
AbstractWith the advent of quantum technology and its development and accelerating progress, in the near future, we will witness a new technological revolution and major changes in the various fields of science and technology that will transform the industrial, economic, political, military and cultural equations and relationships. In the meantime, the topic of electronic warfare due to being technology-driven will be greatly affected by these advances. And the essence of future electronic wars will change.Therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze the opportunities and challenges with foresight and scenario writing and propose ways to counter them. Accordingly, in this study, using credible articles and sources, first, information on various types of stealth techniques and ways to counter them, then the capabilities of leading countries in the field of stealth aircraft as an offensive force and other forces as a defense force was presented and the future of this technology has been studied to the year 1410 SH. After analyzing the data and interviewing with the experts of this field, key factors and driving forces were identified. using scenario writing techniques with the help of scenario wizard software, three more likely scenarios in the form of pessimistic, moderate and optimistic were named smoked scenario, the transition stage scenario, and the quantum age scenario, respectively which were presented at the end of the paper.
While the fundamental nature of war remains constant, military strategies continue to evolve in response to capabilities enabled by new technologies. Therefore, military leaders must be aware of emerging and disruptive technologies to maintain forces that are relevant. One such technology is quantum technology, which has received a great deal of attention in the past few years due to its potential application in a wide range of areas. Particularly, quantum technology promises breakthroughs in various domains of warfare by significantly enhancing current military technology. This article explores three major defense applications of quantum technology—quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communication—and their impact on future warfare based on realistic assessment.
The various branches of the U.S. military have systematically laid out related projects in quantum technology, accelerating the application of quantum technology in the field of defense. This article analyzes the development trend of quantum technology from four perspectives: defense, funding, industry, and research output. Taking the U.S. military as the main object, based on the Department of Defense’s 2024 fiscal year defense technology budget, it analyzes the project layout of U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in the field of quantum technology; it analyzes the application prospects of quantum technology in defense, and elaborates on the high-precision detection capabilities of quantum sensing technology, the high-speed information processing capabilities of quantum computing, and the secure confidential communication capabilities of quantum communication.
The current realities of the cyber domain could be radically disrupted by the advent of quantum communications and quantum computing. The consequent challenges for future cyber security and strategy require a nuanced analysis of these technologies and their likely employment by major powers. The employment of quantum cryptography can create quantum communications systems that are theoretically unhackable. Within the foreseeable future, quantum computing will be powerful enough to overcome most of today's advanced encryption techniques, rendering the majority of existing commercial, government, and military systems unprecedentedly vulnerable. These quantum technologies could respectively tend to advantage defense and offense in the cyber domain. While the “shield” enabled by quantum communications would contribute to technological deterrence through denial, the asymmetries of vulnerability that might result could potentially undermine military cyber stability, while exacerbating the risks of misperception through complicating intelligence collection. In the more distant future, the advent of quantum computing will enable unique offensive power that could leapfrog existing cyber capabilities. The strategic impact of these disruptive technologies will depend upon the approaches of great powers, particularly the U.S. and China, which have become leaders in this technological domain.
History has shown that new technologies can change the face of war significantly. Today, experiencing the speed of innovation and the emergence of technologies made possible by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, even the classical Clausewitzian theory of the nature of war can be questioned. The United States is expected to have an early advantage in the area of quantum computing. However, China is also exploring the applications of quantum technology and has already surpassed the United States in the area of quantum communication. Therefore, recognizing the importance of quantum technology and its application, developing its integration, and understanding the strategic context laid in the US National Defense Strategy 2018 (NDS 2018), it is imperative to consider quantum technology in the paradigm of operational art. Quantum technology is an emerging technology that has the potential to reshape the world and provoke a new arms race. Given that we are in the early stages of quantum technology and there exists the potential of this technology providing the United States and her allies an advantage over adversaries, this monograph analyzes quantum technology and examines its potential importance in future warfare.
Quantum technologies harness the fundamental principles and features of quantum mechanics, such as superposition, no-cloning, entanglement, and quantum tunneling, to deliver transformative advancements in areas including secure communications, PNT (Positioning, Navigation, and Timing), sensing, and computing. Potential defense applications of quantum technologies include secure command and control channels resistant to interception, GPS-independent navigation systems, and quantum-enhanced radar capable of detecting stealth objects. However, quantum systems also bring new challenges and potential vulnerabilities, which are particularly relevant in the defense domain, where operational reliability and security are of paramount importance. We discuss insights into the opportunities and limitations of quantum technologies in the defense sector, as identified by the NATO STO IST-219 Research Task Group on Quantum Technology Vulnerabilities. We also present initial findings regarding identified security challenges and validation methodology.
Quantum technology is an emergent area with the potential to be disruptive and ability to affect many human activities. Quantum technologies are dual-use technologies, and as such, they are the subject of interest for the defence and security industry and military and governmental actors. This report aims to review and map the possible quantum technology military applications to serve as the entry point for international peace and international security assessment, ethics research or military and governmental policy, strategy and decision making. Quantum technologies for military applications, introducing new capabilities, increasing effectiveness and improving precision lead to 'quantum warfare', wherein new military strategies, doctrines, policies and ethics should be established. This report provides a basic overview of quantum technologies under development where the expected time scale of delivery or utilisation impact are estimated. The particular applications of quantum technology for the military are described for various warfare domains (e.g., cyber, space, electronic, underwater warfare, or intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance), and related issues and challenges are articulated.