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Journal of Physics Conference Series

The dynamics of stock exchange based on the formalism of weak continuous quantum measurement

Sergiy Melnyk, Игорь Георгиевич Тулузов

Published Jul 1, 2010• 5 citations
Publisher

Abstract

The problem of measurement in economic models and the possibility of their quantum-mechanical description are considered. It is revealed that the apparent paradox of such a description is associated with a priori requirement of conformity of the model to all the alternatives of free choice of the observer. The measurement of the state of a trader on a stock exchange is formally defined as his responses to the proposals of sale at a fixed price. It is shown that an analogue of Bell's inequalities for this measurement model is violated at the most general assumptions related to the strategy of the trader and requires a quantum-mechanical description of the dynamics of his condition. In the framework of the theory of weak continuous quantum measurements, the equation of stock price dynamics and the quantum-mechanical generalization of the F. Black and M. Scholes model for pricing options are obtained. The fundamental distinctions between the obtained model and the classical one are discussed.

DOI
10.1088/1742-6596/238/1/012035

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The problem of measurement in economic models and the possibility of their quantum-mechanical description are considered. It is revealed that the apparent paradox of such a description is associated with a priori requirement of conformity of the model to all the alternatives of free choice of the observer. The measurement of the state of a trader on a stock exchange is formally defined as his responses to the proposals of sale at a fixed price. It is shown that an analogue of Bell's inequalities for this measurement model is violated at the most general assumptions related to the strategy of the trader and requires a quantum-mechanical description of the dynamics of his condition. In the framework of the theory of weak continuous quantum measurements, the equation of stock price dynamics and the quantum-mechanical generalization of the F. Black and M. Scholes model for pricing options are obtained. The fundamental distinctions between the obtained model and the classical one are discussed.
The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner. By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schrodinger type equation.
Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the 'Black-Scholes model' and the underlying 'random walk hypothesis'. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in abrupt transitions such as during an economical crisis, the random walk model fails and alternative descriptions are needed. For this reason, several proposals have been recently forwarded which are based on the formalism of quantum mechanics. In this paper we apply the 'SCoP formalism', elaborated to provide an operational foundation of quantum mechanics, to the stock market. We argue that a stock market is an intrinsically contextual system where agents' decisions globally influence the market system and stocks prices, determining a nonclassical behavior. More specifically, we maintain that a given stock does not generally have a definite value, e.g., a price, but its value is actualized as a consequence of the contextual interactions in the trading process. This contextual influence is responsible of the non-Kolmogorovian quantum-like behavior of the market at a statistical level. Then, we propose a 'sphere model' within our 'hidden measurement formalism' that describes a buying/selling process of a stock and shows that it is intuitively reasonable to assume that the stock has not a definite price until it is traded. This result is relevant in our opinion since it provides a theoretical support to the use of quantum models in finance.
A natural explanation for extreme irregularities in the evolution of prices in financial markets is provided by quantum effects. The lack of simultaneous observability of relevant variables and the interference of attempted observation with the values of these variables represent such effects. These characteristics have been noted by traders and economists and appear intrinsic to market dynamics. This explanation is explored here in terms of a corresponding generalization of the Wiener process and its role in the Black-Scholes-Merton theory. The differentiability of the Wiener process as a sesquilinear form on a dense domain in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions over Wiener space is shown and is extended to the quantum context. This provides a basis for a corresponding generalization of the Ito theory of stochastic integration. An extension of the Black-Scholes option pricing formula to the quantum context is deduced.
The price of a given stock is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between the traders. If we know the price (owner) then we have no information on the owner (price). A more general description including cases when we have partial information on both price and ownership is obtained by using the quantum mechanics methods. The relation price-ownership is similar to the relation position-momentum. Our approach is based on the mathematical formalism used in the case of quantum systems with finite-dimensional Hilbert space. The linear operator corresponding to the ownership is obtained from the linear operator corresponding to the price by using the finite Fourier transform. In our idealized model, the Schrodinger type equation describing the time evolution of the stock price is solved numerically.
Following system is investigated with its corresponding properties in detail: A Quantum Model Of Option Pricing: When Black–Scholes Meets Schrödinger And Its Semi-Classical Limit, Black–Scholes Option Pricing Model In A More General Quantum Physics Setting, Perfect Market Equilibrium State Postulated By The Black–Scholes Model Represents A Particular Case., Controlled Markov Processes And Mathematical Finance, Controlled Markov Processes And Mathematical Finance, Dynamic Optimization And Its Relation To Classical And Quantum Constrained Systems, Consistency Relation, Inter-Occurrence Times And Universal Laws In Finance, Earthquakes And Genomes, Quantum Cognition Beyond Hilbert Space Ii, Quantum Master Equation For Long-Term Prognosis.. The full paper: http://www.iiste.org/PDFshare/APTA-PAGENO-654991-661307.pdf