The hypothesis that human reasoning obeys the laws of quantum rather than classical probability has been used in recent years to explain a variety of seemingly "irrational" judgment and decision-making findings. This article provides independent evidence for this hypothesis based on an a priori prediction, called the quantum question (QQ) equality, concerning the effect of asking attitude questions successively in different orders. We empirically evaluated the predicted QQ equality using 70 national representative surveys and two laboratory experiments that manipulated question orders. Each national study contained 651-3,006 participants. The results provided strong support for the predicted QQ equality. These findings suggest that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain noncommutativity of measurements in physics, provides a simple account for a surprising regularity regarding measurement order effects in social and behavioral science.
The hypothesis that human reasoning obeys the laws of quantum rather than classical probability has been used in recent years to explain a variety of seemingly "irrational" judgment and decision-making findings. This article provides independent evidence for this hypothesis based on an a priori prediction, called the quantum question (QQ) equality, concerning the effect of asking attitude questions successively in different orders. We empirically evaluated the predicted QQ equality using 70 national representative surveys and two laboratory experiments that manipulated question orders. Each national study contained 651-3,006 participants. The results provided strong support for the predicted QQ equality. These findings suggest that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain noncommutativity of measurements in physics, provides a simple account for a surprising regularity regarding measurement order effects in social and behavioral science.
Question order effects are commonly observed in self-report measures of judgment and attitude. This article develops a quantum question order model (the QQ model) to account for four types of question order effects observed in literature. First, the postulates of the QQ model are presented. Second, an a priori, parameter-free, and precise prediction, called the QQ equality, is derived from these mathematical principles, and six empirical data sets are used to test the prediction. Third, a new index is derived from the model to measure similarity between questions. Fourth, we show that in contrast to the QQ model, Bayesian and Markov models do not generally satisfy the QQ equality and thus cannot account for the reported empirical data that support this equality. Finally, we describe the conditions under which order effects are predicted to occur, and we review a broader range of findings that are encompassed by these very same quantum principles. We conclude that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain order effects on measurements in physics, appears to be a powerful natural explanation for order effects of self-report measures in social and behavioral sciences, too.
Recent findings show that human inferences and decisions interfere in ways analogous to incompatible quantum observables, and conceptual judgments are inseparable in ways similar to entangled quantum states.This discovery has led a group of physicists and psychologists to form a new field called "quantum cognition," which uses mathematical principles of quantum theory to explain human cognitive behavior.The power of this new theoretical approach is illustrated here by testing an a priori and precise prediction derived from quantum theory regarding question order effects commonly observed in survey research.The test of quantum theory was statistically satisfied across a set of 26 national surveys on presidential job approval and country satisfaction in past 10 years.These results suggest that quantum theory, initially invented to explain order effects on measurements in physics, provides a powerful prediction for measurement order effects in social and behavioral sciences too.
Can one really predict something new and interesting using quantum theory in the social or behavioral sciences? Consider the law of reciprocity described in Chapter 2: according to this law, the probability of transiting from one state to another is equal to the probability of making this transition in the opposite direction. Now this symmetrical property is a pretty bold prediction to make in the social and behavioral sciences. Does this really work? To answer this question, in this chapter we empirically test this law by applying the quantum principles to an important empirical problem concerning the effects of question order on attitude judgments. For example, suppose you are asked “How happy are you with life in general?” This question could be preceded or followed by the question “How happy are you with your marriage?” If the marriage question comes first, then the happiness rating for the general life question tends to be substantially depressed, producing a large order effect (Tourangeau et al ., 1991). Quantum physics was originally developed to understand how measurement affects the system under investigation, which led to Heisenberg's famous uncertainty principle. The potential reactivity to measurement by the person being measured has an even longer history in psychology (Tourangeau et al ., 2000). The effects of question order have been an important issue to survey researchers interested in studying beliefs and attitudes (Schuman & Presser, 1981). Measurement of a belief or attitude directs attention to a subset of a person's knowledge, which is then used in guiding subsequent judgments.
In recent years, quantum mechanics has been actively used in areas outside of physics, such as psychology, sociology, theory of decision-making, game theory, and others. In particular, quantum mechanics is used to explain the paradoxes arising in cognitive psychology and decision making. Wang and Busemeyer invented a quantum model and approach as well as non-parametric equality (so-called QQ-equality), explaining the questions order effect. The primary objective of this note is to test the possibility to expand the Wang-Busemeyer model by considering questions which are mathematically represented by positive operator valued measures. We found that, for such observables, the QQ-equality can be violated. But, we also showed that, in principle, it is possible to reduce expanded model to the original Wang-Busemeyer model by expanding the context of the questions. This version of preprint is aimed to point out to annoying miscalculation in version 1. This miscalculation might mislead a reader who is not experienced in operating with POVMs. Otherwise the main line of construction and reasoning presented in version 1 is right and it can be easily completed by the reader on the basis of version 1 and the correction remark in version 2.
This article presents the results of an experiment, called the ABA experiment, designed to test a fundamental prediction of quantum probability theory when applied to human judgments and decisions. The prediction concerns the effect of one measurement on another when the measurements are incompatible (i.e., the answers to the measurements depend on the order of these measurements). After an initial measurement of an opinion on an issue, A, the answer to a second measurement on the same issue A immediately afterwards will certainly be the same as the first. However, according to the uncertainty principle, if a measurement of opinion on issue A is followed by an incompatible measurement on another issue, B, then the answer to a second measurement on issue A will become uncertain. This prediction was tested with 325 participants on a wide range of 12 different set of issues that were previously shown to be incompatible. Contrary to previous claims published in this journal, the empirical findings support the prediction of quantum probability theory applied to human judgments.
The order effect is a well-known phenomenon in cognitive psychology which violates specific axioms of the classical probability theory and refers to different probabilities of measurement outcomes (answers to questions) depending on their order. In this research, the order effect was analyzed using quantum probabilistic modeling of cognitive processes. The Quantum Question (QQ) model suggested by Wang and Busemeyer (2013) was tested on a sample of participants that had answered three yes/no questions about a painting, in different orders. For that purpose, three problems were considered. The first problem was to examine the presence of the order effect in participants’ answers and the results showed order effects for all three questions. The second problem was to test data fitness with a model prediction called QQ equality and the data proved to be a good fit to the model. The purpose of the third problem was to examine the dependency of the q value derived from the model on a third question. Given that the QQ equality is a prediction which includes only two yes/no questions, an additional prediction was derived from the model which includes a third question and according to which, the q value is independent of a third question. The results showed a limitation in the model in explaining empirical data. A proposal was made how to expand the theory, so it would include models with three or more questions.