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Infinite Dimensional Analysis Quantum Probability and Related Topics

QUANTUM-LIKE MODELING OF THE ORDER EFFECT IN DECISION MAKING: POVM VIEWPOINT ON THE WANG-BUSEMEYER QQ-EQUALITY

A. LEBEDEV, Andrei Yu. Khrennikov

Published Nov 1, 2023• 4 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.1142/9789811275999_0010

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Quantum-like modeling of the order effect in decision making: POVM viewpoint on the Wang-Busemeyer QQ-equality

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In recent years, quantum mechanics has been actively used in areas outside of physics, such as psychology, sociology, theory of decision-making, game theory, and others. In particular, quantum mechanics is used to explain the paradoxes arising in cognitive psychology and decision making. Wang and Busemeyer invented a quantum model and approach as well as non-parametric equality (so-called QQ-equality), explaining the questions order effect. The primary objective of this note is to test the possibility to expand the Wang-Busemeyer model by considering questions which are mathematically represented by positive operator valued measures. We found that, for such observables, the QQ-equality can be violated. But, we also showed that, in principle, it is possible to reduce expanded model to the original Wang-Busemeyer model by expanding the context of the questions. This version of preprint is aimed to point out to annoying miscalculation in version 1. This miscalculation might mislead a reader who is not experienced in operating with POVMs. Otherwise the main line of construction and reasoning presented in version 1 is right and it can be easily completed by the reader on the basis of version 1 and the correction remark in version 2.

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Modeling combination of question order effect, response replicability effect, and QQ-equality with quantum instruments

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We continue to analyze basic constraints on human's decision making from the viewpoint of quantum measurement theory (QMT). As has been found, the conventional QMT based on the projection postulate cannot account for combination of the question order effect (QOE) and the response replicability effect (RRE). This was an alarm signal for quantum-like modeling of decision making. Recently, it was shown that this objection to quantum-like modeling can be removed on the basis of the general QMT based on quantum instruments. In the present paper we analyse the problem of combination of QOE, RRE, and the famous QQ-equality (QQE). This equality was derived by Busemeyer and Wang and it was shown (in the joint paper with Solloway and Shiffrin) that statistical data from many social opinion polls satisfies it. Now, we construct quantum instruments satisfying QOE, RRE, and QQE. The general features of our approach are formalized with postulates which generalize {\it Wang-Busemeyer} postulates for quantum-like modeling of decision making. Moreover, we show that our model closely reproduces the statistics of the famous Clinton-Gore Poll data with a prior belief state independent of the question order. This model successfully removes the order effect from the data to determine the genuine distribution of the opinions in the Poll. The paper also provides a psychologist-friendly introduction to the theory of quantum instruments - the most general mathematical framework for quantum measurements. We hope that this theory will attract attention of psychologists and will stimulate further applications.

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In recent years, quantum mechanics has been actively used in areas outside of physics, such as psychology, sociology, theory of decision-making, game theory, and others. In particular, quantum mechanics is used to explain the paradoxes arising in cognitive psychology and decision making. Wang and Busemeyer invented a quantum model and approach as well as non-parametric equality (so-called QQ-equality), explaining the questions order effect. The primary objective of this note is to test the possibility to expand the Wang-Busemeyer model by considering questions which are mathematically represented by positive operator valued measures. We found that, for such observables, the QQ-equality can be violated. But, we also showed that, in principle, it is possible to reduce expanded model to the original Wang-Busemeyer model by expanding the context of the questions. This version of preprint is aimed to point out to annoying miscalculation in version 1. This miscalculation might mislead a reader who is not experienced in operating with POVMs. Otherwise the main line of construction and reasoning presented in version 1 is right and it can be easily completed by the reader on the basis of version 1 and the correction remark in version 2.
We continue to analyze basic constraints on human's decision making from the viewpoint of quantum measurement theory (QMT). As has been found, the conventional QMT based on the projection postulate cannot account for combination of the question order effect (QOE) and the response replicability effect (RRE). This was an alarm signal for quantum-like modeling of decision making. Recently, it was shown that this objection to quantum-like modeling can be removed on the basis of the general QMT based on quantum instruments. In the present paper we analyse the problem of combination of QOE, RRE, and the famous QQ-equality (QQE). This equality was derived by Busemeyer and Wang and it was shown (in the joint paper with Solloway and Shiffrin) that statistical data from many social opinion polls satisfies it. Now, we construct quantum instruments satisfying QOE, RRE, and QQE. The general features of our approach are formalized with postulates which generalize {\it Wang-Busemeyer} postulates for quantum-like modeling of decision making. Moreover, we show that our model closely reproduces the statistics of the famous Clinton-Gore Poll data with a prior belief state independent of the question order. This model successfully removes the order effect from the data to determine the genuine distribution of the opinions in the Poll. The paper also provides a psychologist-friendly introduction to the theory of quantum instruments - the most general mathematical framework for quantum measurements. We hope that this theory will attract attention of psychologists and will stimulate further applications.