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AIP conference proceedings

Probability Paradoxes and a Strategy to Search for Solutions

Richard Woesler, Guillaume Adenier, Andrei Yu. Khrennikov, PEKKA J. LAHTI, Vladimir I. Man’ko, Theo M. Nieuwenhuizen

Published Jan 1, 2007• 0 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Extremely many worlds would exist mathematically where the results of quantum processes happen to occur from now on outside earth always according to completely other probability distributions then the known ones. At first glance it seems to be extremely improbable to perceive ourselves in a world where the probability distributions will remain those according to the simple rules of quantum theory. This is called a probability paradox, and further similar paradoxes are presented. A strategy is described to search for solutions, an information theoretic approach. In that approach infinitely many worlds are considered in parallel.

DOI
10.1063/1.2827331

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Extremely many worlds would exist mathematically where the results of quantum processes happen to occur from now on outside earth always according to completely other probability distributions then the known ones. At first glance it seems to be extremely improbable to perceive ourselves in a world where the probability distributions will remain those according to the simple rules of quantum theory. This is called a probability paradox, and further similar paradoxes are presented. A strategy is described to search for solutions, an information theoretic approach. In that approach infinitely many worlds are considered in parallel.
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In a previous study a spiritual difficulty for public health was considered, that many people say that there would be definitely no afterlife with Judgment Day, and that some such persons might sometimes try to harm innocent others secretly to obtain advantages, e.g., financial, with negative impact on public health. Considering additional knowledge, new thought experiments are conducted, including arbitrary infinite bitstrings as programs, run, e.g., on theoretical Turing machines, and mathematical structures providing generalized findings, including results for questions of quantum probabilities, e.g., the Born rule - which is experimentally confirmed. In quantum processes, randomness instead of pseudorandomness is more probable than within the less general structures of the previous study. This is achieved designing generalized structures, e.g., programs, which do not function when they are “alone”. Additional structures show that pseudorandomness remains relevant. A paradox of the extreme variety of incomprehensible universes is described. It could be solved here considering further structures, e.g., the extremely large number of, e.g., world part copies simulated by various short programs, providing a large probability for comprehensible worlds. In all these mathematical structures, aliens’ pains emerge naturally.
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In this note we discuss a few simple classical (as opposed to quantum) prediction problems. The thrust of this work is to examine the predictive role of probability theory and we shall see that some situations are not re-ally paradoxical. In particular we want to separate the role of probability as a predictive tool from one of the basic sources of strangeness in quan-tum mechanics, namely the principle of superposition of states. For that we shall re-examine some of the quantum paradoxes, recast as a problem about making a prediction about the result of a random experiment in classical physics when some information is known. 1
Cromwell's rule (also known as the zero priors paradox) refers to the constraint of classical probability theory that if one assigns a prior probability of 0 or 1 to a hypothesis, then the posterior has to be 0 or 1 as well (this is a straightforward implication of how Bayes's rule works). Relatedly, hypotheses with a very low prior cannot be updated to have a very high posterior without a tremendous amount of new evidence to support them (or to make other possibilities highly improbable). Cromwell's rule appears at odds with our intuition of how humans update probabilities. In this work, we report two simple decision making experiments, which seem to be inconsistent with Cromwell's rule. Quantum probability theory, the rules for how to assign probabilities from the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, provides an alternative framework for probabilistic inference. An advantage of quantum probability theory is that it is not subject to Cromwell's rule and it can accommodate changes from zero or very small priors to significant posteriors. We outline a model of decision making, based on quantum theory, which can accommodate the changes from priors to posteriors, observed in our experiments.